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Trumps popularity polls.

What matters is not the national popular vote. It's the electoral college. Biden can get 100% of the popular votes in California, but he would get the same number of electoral college votes if he only won that state by 51%.

Biden seems to have 216 electoral votes locked up, Trump has 125. The winner needs 270.

Biden has the advantage in the electoral college but it's anyone's race.

upload_2020-10-16_21-21-32.png



Source: 2020 Election Forecast

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Source: RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - 2020 Electoral College Map
 

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
Which is a tragedy. Because of the EC and a system of winner takes all, I suspect a massive percentage of Americans have, in the end, a vote that is only symbolic.
Remember you get what you ask for. How would the majority rule apply in terms of issues like homosexuality and abortion ?
 

TagliatelliMonster

Veteran Member
Which is a tragedy. Because of the EC and a system of winner takes all, I suspect a massive percentage of Americans have, in the end, a vote that is only symbolic.


Yep.

When this EC system was explained to me the first time, my jaw dropped on the ground.
I couldn't believe that the so-called "biggest democracy in the world", worked with such a system. It's totally banana's.

I felt it was already bad enough that the US basically really only has 2 parties. That, coupled with the EC, it becomes completely absurd.

Most unfair electoral system I have ever encountered.
 

Shadow Wolf

Certified People sTabber & Business Owner
Yep.

When this EC system was explained to me the first time, my jaw dropped on the ground.
I couldn't believe that the so-called "biggest democracy in the world", worked with such a system. It's totally banana's.

I felt it was already bad enough that the US basically really only has 2 parties. That, coupled with the EC, it becomes completely absurd.

Most unfair electoral system I have ever encountered.
I would estimate that probably half or more of the country casts a vote that gets them no representation, effectively silencing them and taking away their voice and forcing them to have no representation because the winners get to take all here.
 

Riders

Well-Known Member
But now Bidens ahead by 10 or more points in most states and they say at this time four years ago Clinton was losing her popularity because of the email scandal.

So regardless of what you say Biden is way ahead then Clinton was too.It looks good for Biden.
 

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
Yep.

When this EC system was explained to me the first time, my jaw dropped on the ground.
I couldn't believe that the so-called "biggest democracy in the world", worked with such a system. It's totally banana's.

I felt it was already bad enough that the US basically really only has 2 parties. That, coupled with the EC, it becomes completely absurd.

Most unfair electoral system I have ever encountered.

The Founders didn't entirely trust the democratic process, thinking there were too many people who just didn't have the brains to vote (and considering the results of many elections, I'm inclined to agree with that). For similar reasons, the Supreme Court Justices were made into appointed positions, because they didn't want the Court to be subject to the frivolous whims and vagaries of public opinion - or to be beholden to vested interests.

But ultimately, it's still up to the people. The Constitution could have been changed if the people had the backbone and the will to make it happen.

What makes the EC truly unfair is the winner-take-all system (which was never defined in the Constitution, that's just something they contrived later). If not for that, then the EC would have more accurately reflected the popular vote count.
 

TagliatelliMonster

Veteran Member
The Founders didn't entirely trust the democratic process, thinking there were too many people who just didn't have the brains to vote (and considering the results of many elections, I'm inclined to agree with that). For similar reasons, the Supreme Court Justices were made into appointed positions, because they didn't want the Court to be subject to the frivolous whims and vagaries of public opinion - or to be beholden to vested interests.

But ultimately, it's still up to the people. The Constitution could have been changed if the people had the backbone and the will to make it happen.

What makes the EC truly unfair is the winner-take-all system (which was never defined in the Constitution, that's just something they contrived later). If not for that, then the EC would have more accurately reflected the popular vote count.

I actually agree with "the founders" that "the people" (ie: the masses) can't be trusted to have the required intellect and / or intel to cast an informed vote. And we can confirm this quite easily when we just go out in the streets around election day, and ask people who they voted for and why. Their "why" oftenly are facepalming moments.

Even the idea that "anyone" can be a candidate and get voted into office, is something that resonates to me as a stupid thing to do. It means that seriously underqualified people can get elected. What good does that do?

I don't have the answers though, but I do feel like some serious reflecting and reforming is required of the entire democratic process.

I like to compare it with how a corporation is run. If a business needs a new CEO, or a new financial officer or what-have-you... Not every "average joe" can get that job. You need proper qualifications. Neither does "every average Joe" get a vote. You need proper qualifications.

Why would positions for running a COUNTRY be any different? Eventhough democracy has served us well, compared to all other systems that have been tried till now, I think the way it is implemented, is actually kind of patently insane in a way...
 

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
I actually agree with "the founders" that "the people" (ie: the masses) can't be trusted to have the required intellect and / or intel to cast an informed vote. And we can confirm this quite easily when we just go out in the streets around election day, and ask people who they voted for and why. Their "why" oftenly are facepalming moments.

Even the idea that "anyone" can be a candidate and get voted into office, is something that resonates to me as a stupid thing to do. It means that seriously underqualified people can get elected. What good does that do?

It does happen from time to time, where someone who is unqualified makes it to public office. But then, with elected officials, people are also looking at character and what some might refer to as "leadership quality," which can be a bit more nebulous and vague. The "leader" isn't necessarily the smartest person in the room, and sometimes, having the smartest person in charge isn't always the ideal situation. But as with anything, the results can vary.

The idea that "anyone" can be elected is more a philosophical position, declaring no one has to be born "into the right family" or be of "noble birth" in order to succeed in America. The Founders rejected monachism and the kind of mentality it fostered. It implies that a position should be earned based solely on merit, not on birthright.

The numerous stories of people going from rags to riches are a common trope in Americana, and a propagandistic tool of the capitalist system. The idea that "anyone" can be a success is an integral part of the ideology, strongly implying that if anyone doesn't reach that level, it's due to their own personal failings as an individual. It's not due to the system or any level of oppression (as the argument usually goes). It's the idea that the poor are poor because they're lazy, while the rich are rich because they're diligent and hard-working. This idea is a sacred cow in the American political consciousness, and it's been embraced by liberals and conservatives alike.

I don't have the answers though, but I do feel like some serious reflecting and reforming is required of the entire democratic process.

I like to compare it with how a corporation is run. If a business needs a new CEO, or a new financial officer or what-have-you... Not every "average joe" can get that job. You need proper qualifications. Neither does "every average Joe" get a vote. You need proper qualifications.

Is that really true, though? Some companies might be perceived as having nepotism, favoritism, "good ol' boy" networks, etc. It's often said "it's not what you know, it's who you know." That may seem like sour grapes, but then one has to consider CEOs like that of Sears, who made a humongous salary yet drove the company into ruin. A lot of incompetent people somehow make it to the top spot, and one has to wonder just how that can happen, if they're actually screening people, vetting people, and presumably hiring the most qualified person.

Then there are those who might be self-taught and are quite knowledgeable, but they may not have the qualifications "on paper," as it were. Bill Gates dropped out of college. Even many presidents never went to or finished college.

Why would positions for running a COUNTRY be any different? Eventhough democracy has served us well, compared to all other systems that have been tried till now, I think the way it is implemented, is actually kind of patently insane in a way...

I don't think anyone has been able to come up with a completely foolproof political system. Our system probably might have worked better if not for those who weren't content with us being a humble little democratic-republic. They wanted to make America into a global empire and a superpower, and that's where we really went wrong. Maybe they felt it was necessary at the time of the World Wars and the perceived threat of international Communism, which they were afraid could topple the capitalist/imperialist world order which had been established in the previous century.

But it was that shift in our national direction which created the so-called "Imperial Presidency" and elevated our national leader to that of "leader of the free world."

Democracy can work at the lower levels of society, and in smaller ponds. But sometimes I wonder if America has gotten too big for democracy. We're already a quasi-"empire" of sorts, and a lot of things our government does, the general public really has no knowledge of. A lot of things are kept secret, particularly in matters of Defense and the intelligence community. Our law enforcement agencies are much larger and more powerful than they were in our Founders' time. We'd like to think that we're still a government "of the people, by the people, and for the people," but the people aren't really given enough information to able to truly confirm that.
 

TagliatelliMonster

Veteran Member
It does happen from time to time, where someone who is unqualified makes it to public office. But then, with elected officials, people are also looking at character and what some might refer to as "leadership quality," which can be a bit more nebulous and vague. The "leader" isn't necessarily the smartest person in the room, and sometimes, having the smartest person in charge isn't always the ideal situation. But as with anything, the results can vary.

The idea that "anyone" can be elected is more a philosophical position, declaring no one has to be born "into the right family" or be of "noble birth" in order to succeed in America. The Founders rejected monachism and the kind of mentality it fostered. It implies that a position should be earned based solely on merit, not on birthright.

The numerous stories of people going from rags to riches are a common trope in Americana, and a propagandistic tool of the capitalist system. The idea that "anyone" can be a success is an integral part of the ideology, strongly implying that if anyone doesn't reach that level, it's due to their own personal failings as an individual. It's not due to the system or any level of oppression (as the argument usually goes). It's the idea that the poor are poor because they're lazy, while the rich are rich because they're diligent and hard-working. This idea is a sacred cow in the American political consciousness, and it's been embraced by liberals and conservatives alike.

Sure, but that is not quite what I meant.

I wasn't talking about the concept of "you can be whoever you want to be".
I was more talking about the fact that anyone can run for office. You don't have to take a test or whatever to put your name on a ballot.

I don't think it's right that literally anyone, regardless of education or qualification or what-have-you, can be an actual electable candidate. I feel like there is a step missing here.

I guess I'm saying that the "anyone" part should be restricted to an "anyone can be a candidate to be a candidate". There should be some kind of process to determine if you are actually qualified, one way or the other, and able to take up the job you are about to ask the people a mandate for.


Is that really true, though? Some companies might be perceived as having nepotism, favoritism, "good ol' boy" networks, etc. It's often said "it's not what you know, it's who you know." That may seem like sour grapes, but then one has to consider CEOs like that of Sears, who made a humongous salary yet drove the company into ruin. A lot of incompetent people somehow make it to the top spot, and one has to wonder just how that can happen, if they're actually screening people, vetting people, and presumably hiring the most qualified person.

You make a good point off course.
And at the same time, you also show what the effect is of putting the wrong person in the wrong position.

Then there are those who might be self-taught and are quite knowledgeable, but they may not have the qualifications "on paper," as it were. Bill Gates dropped out of college. Even many presidents never went to or finished college.

Well, when I speak of qualification, I don't necessarily mean having a specific diploma. There are more ways then just school to obtain a particular skill set.

As for Bill Gates, the dude didn't actually know anything about running a business and had to learn it all as Microsoft grew. But the guy is also a genius and a ridiculously fast learner. Not your average example, I'ld say. Also, he build msft from the ground up. It's one thing to do that. It's another thing to enter such a company after it is already established. Imagine putting someone in charge of msft who doesn't even know how to turn on a PC and who refers to the internet as "The Google".

I don't think anyone has been able to come up with a completely foolproof political system.


I don't think anyone ever will either. :)
But we should still try ;-)

But sometimes I wonder if America has gotten too big for democracy. We're already a quasi-"empire" of sorts, and a lot of things our government does, the general public really has no knowledge of. A lot of things are kept secret, particularly in matters of Defense and the intelligence community. Our law enforcement agencies are much larger and more powerful than they were in our Founders' time. We'd like to think that we're still a government "of the people, by the people, and for the people," but the people aren't really given enough information to able to truly confirm that.

True. And I think that's where we find the importance of a robust, in depth and unambiguous constitution, coupled with some kind of independend "supervisor" commitee that constantly monitors if governments don't cross the lines laid out in that constitution.

What I also find is that every time that I think about this stuff, I quickly end up in an eutopian world where we can actually trust that it is free from corruption in all the right places.

When I think about "perfect societies" that we see sometimes in science fiction series and films, then the role of this "supervisor" is oftenly played by an AI engine, free from human bias and desires and corruption. :)


Okay, i'm crossing over into lala-land now.

I'll leave it at that.

:D
 

Shaul

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
But now Bidens ahead by 10 or more points in most states and they say at this time four years ago Clinton was losing her popularity because of the email scandal.

So regardless of what you say Biden is way ahead then Clinton was too.It looks good for Biden.
In 2016 most polls got it wrong. One that got it right was Rasmussen. According to their latest poll President Trump has a slim lead nationally. White House Watch

Other polls in battleground states show larger leads for President Trump.
 
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