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Tucker Carlson, Colonel Douglas Macgregor, The Ukraine War

Copernicus

Industrial Strength Linguist
I did watch ? -- up to the point where I had seen enough ..

Yep, and therein lies the problem. That was like a few minutes, right? That's what you said. And you only talked about one of the very many points he covered--just troop casualty figures. And you felt you could do a better job than an experienced intelligence analyst who works with open source data for a living. People literally pay him to get his opinions on these matters. They don't pay you. You're just trying to do your own calculation as a kind of Dunning-Kruger infused experiment. And you find RT, the Russian MOD, and other Russian sources a lot more credible than history would suggest is reasonable.

So the bottom line is you didn't really listen to more than a smidgeon of the video. You didn't watch it. And I'm wondering: Why am I debating the reliability of this video and the guy who produced it with someone who won't bother to watch the whole video, despite repeated efforts to get him to watch it? This is a thread on the MacGregor video, and McBeth was a full-blown critique of the video mentioned in the OP. So what is holding you back from watching the whole thing? Worse yet, why am I spending my time arguing with you about its content? So, well, here I am. Not worth the cost of those precious remaining heartbeats left to me. Thanks for the discussion up to this point, but no thanks for more.
 

Sargonski

Well-Known Member
Yep, and therein lies the problem. That was like a few minutes, right? That's what you said. And you only talked about one of the very many points he covered--just troop casualty figures. And you felt you could do a better job than an experienced intelligence analyst who works with open source data for a living. People literally pay him to get his opinions on these matters. They don't pay you. You're just trying to do your own calculation as a kind of Dunning-Kruger infused experiment. And you find RT, the Russian MOD, and other Russian sources a lot more credible than history would suggest is reasonable.

So the bottom line is you didn't really listen to more than a smidgeon of the video. You didn't watch it. And I'm wondering: Why am I debating the reliability of this video and the guy who produced it with someone who won't bother to watch the whole video, despite repeated efforts to get him to watch it? This is a thread on the MacGregor video, and McBeth was a full-blown critique of the video mentioned in the OP. So what is holding you back from watching the whole thing? Worse yet, why am I spending my time arguing with you about its content? So, well, here I am. Not worth the cost of those precious remaining heartbeats left to me. Thanks for the discussion up to this point, but no thanks for more.

This is bonky logic Brother Copper -- We have an interview with MacGreggor -- people are claiming falsehood - lies "Propaganda" -- I say OK .. sounds to me like these folks crying out propaganda .. are the one's been ingesting the spiked koolaid .. have a pre-ordained thought pattern going on .. big case of cloudy vision. ... having watched not just this interview .. but 20 .. perhaps 30 of his talks .. along with that of numerous other analysts .. Alex Mercuious does an hour every day .. .. talking about what happened in each of the main battles going on in the grey zone .. if we Ukraine has managed penetration of first line of defense .. and also ... as link given you .. which you probably did not watch ... there are a number of analysts ..with maps and videos ... going through the daily conflict action .. giving reports from both sides on the battle .. commenting on where things likely are .. complete with drone footage .. "War Like Never Before"

So I would say .. that gives me at least some ability to assess for myself .. what is happening on the battle field ... assess whether or not this self professed Military Analyst .. one not having a rounding error on a warts butt of the credentials of Doug has .. doing something any Joe schmoo can .. and do do..

This is from the backdrop -- that Doug has a huge target on his back -- as do all the deviants from the State Sponsored Narrative ... during war time. .. highly politicized war time .. not like one of those other proxy wars where you might hear something every few months .. selected pablum .. the sin of omission .. and so we expect "False Fact Checkers" .. and this fellow comes with Zero credentials or credibility in the Fact Checker Department.

But .. OK .. let us see what this fellow has to say --- and in the first few minutes.. the fellow proves himself to be a moron ..pounding the most extreme and nonsensical of the pudding narrative .. citing a 17000 dead figure -- which is fine , but not qualifying it properly as "YOU HAVE TO DO" if you are fact checking. now yes .. later on he gives other number .. which is less wonky but not qualified properly either.

This is in the backdrop .. of saying Doug's 400K figure was "False" .. posters cried LIar Liar .. and yet no one has posted the context in which Doug said 400K .. as he is not claiming this is defacto the figure ... he is citing inside sources .. but was as high as 350 prior to counter offensive and likely added another 50K during this counter offensive .. which in the beginning went horribly wrong if you recall .. but of course you don't .. because you are an outsider looking in .. have no info of your own .. so just relying on some internet fellow calling himself a fact checker.... as opposed to an Advisor to the Secretary of Defense .. "High up the Food Chain" .. running against a herd of stampeding Bulls guy .. but one with impecable credibility and Patriot .. with big credentials.

So we are looking at 300-400K .. by reasonable estimates .. or what Doug Claims are reasonable .. and he qualifies how the work is done .. talks about how those whose Job it is to figure such things out .. go about doing what they do .. and have given you examples .. Obituaries - daily site reports .. which we will come back to .. but the "Insiders" working for the respective State .. have Satellite footage of everything .. so can probably give a 90% accurate estimate via AI... in the case of Russia .. have drone footage .. much of which they publish .. can get a rough estimate .. just watching what I watch every day .. going through on of the 10-15 min update reports...

and in those daily updates .. Battle A - B- C - D In Battle A -- this happened .. this many killed/wounded -- and if you watch .. in general over this counter offensive it has been 500-1000 per day .. and have been various updates .. from various sources .. some of which have a history of getting it more or less correct .. and some who do not.. so you have a history already .. no one debating the 500-1000 per day figure .. during this offensive.. you can just watch the site reports and count to yourself -- see the carnage reigning down .. Russians are now using drones to target infantry .. and you get to watch the drone suiciding itself .. watch it hit the soldiers from the eyes of the Drone suiciding itself ..

So we been 90 days in the offensive .. .. call it 100 for easy math -- 50-100,000 casualties .. the ratio .. which is more like 2-1 or lower .. not 3-1 .. so we are looking at 17,000 to 34,000 dead .. in this counter offensive.

Perhaps this is what buddy is referring to .. confusing 17K dead in the counter offensive .. with the entire war ? give him the benefit of the doubt.. then he throws out this 500K number .. no quantification where this comes from .. does some fuzzy math based on figures initial assumptions shown false (3-1 casualty ratio) in addition to a second false assumption not factoring in conscription .. and giving no support for this number to begin with .. but I am not contesting the 500K number was perhaps the original army size .. but this does not factor in conscription as the war progressess.

but the fact that he does not qualify where this number came from 500K .. in of itself .. LOOK .. if you are going to claim to be a "Fact Checker" you have a higher bar of responsibility to prove your claims are true .. and to make darn sure it is clear what you are saying/calculating.

So you can see .. the problems are building up .. he has come out and given MacGreggor a "Pants on Fire" rating for this casualty figure .. which was an estimate in of itself .. Doug Reporting an Estimat .. call it 300K for the Fog of War factor .. which Doug clarifies .. but we are dealing with error bars here +/- 50% or some such thing .. not 10-1 or 20-1 as this goofball suggests presenting the 17K figure. .. a number that is fodder for the uninformed .. and he should know this to call himself an legit analyst .. but he is not .. obviously he does not listen to the daily site reports .. as if he did he would know better. All he has done is a google search and picked out a few headlines that support the narrative he wishes to pump.

K -- KK .. so we have shown the guy is either a deceiver or a moron .. doesn't have a clue what he is talking about but calls himself an intelligence analyst .. one we have proven has no intelligence in his analysis. and you say to me .. but look there is more .. ?! entreating me to further torture myself .. as if something he says in the future is going to remove the falsehood ?? .. or but but, there is some other falsehood that this guy is going to claim .. that I might be interested in. and as I told you before .. Good .. tell me what the falsehood is .. this other one you have found that you think is legit .. and at what time he talks about it .. and I will do that much for you.

Look -- you have Gobbled down the Koolaid -- not knowing it was spiked .. are desperate to come up with some refutation to this evil Doug who contradicts the CNN Propaganda war narrative .. and thus are willing to be duped by the dupiest of dupers :) Listen no further to this fellow .. do however watch Judge Neopolitano .. more of Dougs interviews but also those of others .. listen to some of the site-rep reports .. and get informed... Stop this war mongering .. wasting the future of our children byspending ourselves into oblivion .. trying to project power when the cost has gone way high. .. the death of every world economic empire .. this is how it always ends friend .. but that don't mean you got to go the way of the totalitarian... the seeds already implanted .. and growing as intended !
 

Copernicus

Industrial Strength Linguist
This is bonky logic Brother Copper -- We have an interview with MacGreggor -- people are claiming falsehood - lies "Propaganda" -- I say OK .. sounds to me like these folks crying out propaganda .. are the one's been ingesting the spiked koolaid .. have a pre-ordained thought pattern going on .. big case of cloudy vision. ... having watched not just this interview .. but 20 .. perhaps 30 of his talks .. along with that of numerous other analysts .. Alex Mercuious does an hour every day .. .. talking about what happened in each of the main battles going on in the grey zone .. if we Ukraine has managed penetration of first line of defense .. and also ... as link given you .. which you probably did not watch ... there are a number of analysts ..with maps and videos ... going through the daily conflict action .. giving reports from both sides on the battle .. commenting on where things likely are .. complete with drone footage .. "War Like Never Before"

So I would say .. that gives me at least some ability to assess for myself .. what is happening on the battle field ... assess whether or not this self professed Military Analyst .. one not having a rounding error on a warts butt of the credentials of Doug has .. doing something any Joe schmoo can .. and do do..

This is from the backdrop -- that Doug has a huge target on his back -- as do all the deviants from the State Sponsored Narrative ... during war time. .. highly politicized war time .. not like one of those other proxy wars where you might hear something every few months .. selected pablum .. the sin of omission .. and so we expect "False Fact Checkers" .. and this fellow comes with Zero credentials or credibility in the Fact Checker Department.

But .. OK .. let us see what this fellow has to say --- and in the first few minutes.. the fellow proves himself to be a moron ..pounding the most extreme and nonsensical of the pudding narrative .. citing a 17000 dead figure -- which is fine , but not qualifying it properly as "YOU HAVE TO DO" if you are fact checking. now yes .. later on he gives other number .. which is less wonky but not qualified properly either.

This is in the backdrop .. of saying Doug's 400K figure was "False" .. posters cried LIar Liar .. and yet no one has posted the context in which Doug said 400K .. as he is not claiming this is defacto the figure ... he is citing inside sources .. but was as high as 350 prior to counter offensive and likely added another 50K during this counter offensive .. which in the beginning went horribly wrong if you recall .. but of course you don't .. because you are an outsider looking in .. have no info of your own .. so just relying on some internet fellow calling himself a fact checker.... as opposed to an Advisor to the Secretary of Defense .. "High up the Food Chain" .. running against a herd of stampeding Bulls guy .. but one with impecable credibility and Patriot .. with big credentials.

So we are looking at 300-400K .. by reasonable estimates .. or what Doug Claims are reasonable .. and he qualifies how the work is done .. talks about how those whose Job it is to figure such things out .. go about doing what they do .. and have given you examples .. Obituaries - daily site reports .. which we will come back to .. but the "Insiders" working for the respective State .. have Satellite footage of everything .. so can probably give a 90% accurate estimate via AI... in the case of Russia .. have drone footage .. much of which they publish .. can get a rough estimate .. just watching what I watch every day .. going through on of the 10-15 min update reports...

and in those daily updates .. Battle A - B- C - D In Battle A -- this happened .. this many killed/wounded -- and if you watch .. in general over this counter offensive it has been 500-1000 per day .. and have been various updates .. from various sources .. some of which have a history of getting it more or less correct .. and some who do not.. so you have a history already .. no one debating the 500-1000 per day figure .. during this offensive.. you can just watch the site reports and count to yourself -- see the carnage reigning down .. Russians are now using drones to target infantry .. and you get to watch the drone suiciding itself .. watch it hit the soldiers from the eyes of the Drone suiciding itself ..

So we been 90 days in the offensive .. .. call it 100 for easy math -- 50-100,000 casualties .. the ratio .. which is more like 2-1 or lower .. not 3-1 .. so we are looking at 17,000 to 34,000 dead .. in this counter offensive.

Perhaps this is what buddy is referring to .. confusing 17K dead in the counter offensive .. with the entire war ? give him the benefit of the doubt.. then he throws out this 500K number .. no quantification where this comes from .. does some fuzzy math based on figures initial assumptions shown false (3-1 casualty ratio) in addition to a second false assumption not factoring in conscription .. and giving no support for this number to begin with .. but I am not contesting the 500K number was perhaps the original army size .. but this does not factor in conscription as the war progressess.

but the fact that he does not qualify where this number came from 500K .. in of itself .. LOOK .. if you are going to claim to be a "Fact Checker" you have a higher bar of responsibility to prove your claims are true .. and to make darn sure it is clear what you are saying/calculating.

So you can see .. the problems are building up .. he has come out and given MacGreggor a "Pants on Fire" rating for this casualty figure .. which was an estimate in of itself .. Doug Reporting an Estimat .. call it 300K for the Fog of War factor .. which Doug clarifies .. but we are dealing with error bars here +/- 50% or some such thing .. not 10-1 or 20-1 as this goofball suggests presenting the 17K figure. .. a number that is fodder for the uninformed .. and he should know this to call himself an legit analyst .. but he is not .. obviously he does not listen to the daily site reports .. as if he did he would know better. All he has done is a google search and picked out a few headlines that support the narrative he wishes to pump.

K -- KK .. so we have shown the guy is either a deceiver or a moron .. doesn't have a clue what he is talking about but calls himself an intelligence analyst .. one we have proven has no intelligence in his analysis. and you say to me .. but look there is more .. ?! entreating me to further torture myself .. as if something he says in the future is going to remove the falsehood ?? .. or but but, there is some other falsehood that this guy is going to claim .. that I might be interested in. and as I told you before .. Good .. tell me what the falsehood is .. this other one you have found that you think is legit .. and at what time he talks about it .. and I will do that much for you.

Look -- you have Gobbled down the Koolaid -- not knowing it was spiked .. are desperate to come up with some refutation to this evil Doug who contradicts the CNN Propaganda war narrative .. and thus are willing to be duped by the dupiest of dupers :) Listen no further to this fellow .. do however watch Judge Neopolitano .. more of Dougs interviews but also those of others .. listen to some of the site-rep reports .. and get informed... Stop this war mongering .. wasting the future of our children byspending ourselves into oblivion .. trying to project power when the cost has gone way high. .. the death of every world economic empire .. this is how it always ends friend .. but that don't mean you got to go the way of the totalitarian... the seeds already implanted .. and growing as intended !

I've already gone over this material with you and explained why I thought his assessment credible. (BTW, you keep attributing this "17,000" number to him, when he actually said "17,500", which I tried to correct earlier to no avail.) One thing I like about McBeth is that he doesn't really try to color his analysis in favor of either side in this war. He just gives his best assessment of what the real figure ought to be. In any case, you needn't continue trying to justify why you dismiss everything else he says out of hand without actually listening to what he has to say. I'm content to let you have the final say and move on to more interesting discussions.
 

Sargonski

Well-Known Member
I've already gone over this material with you and explained why I thought his assessment credible. (BTW, you keep attributing this "17,000" number to him, when he actually said "17,500", which I tried to correct earlier to no avail.) One thing I like about McBeth is that he doesn't really try to color his analysis in favor of either side in this war. He just gives his best assessment of what the real figure ought to be. In any case, you needn't continue trying to justify why you dismiss everything else he says out of hand without actually listening to what he has to say. I'm content to let you have the final say and move on to more interesting discussions.

17000 .. 17500 ... Who Cares .. makes Zero difference to the argument and changes nothing about McBeths proven falsehoods .. lack of ability .. and the fact that doodle is a big sham .. this silliness just a deflection and dismissal dismissal of the fact that you were duped by the propaganda .. and frankly propaganda from a demonstrable moron .. having none of the purported credibility or credential .. not knowing the basic rules of a "Fact Check" .. never mind providing one.

but what more interesting discussion would you like to have .. now that you have become aware that the koolaid you been drinking is spiked ? Got to replace the old drink with something new - and then folks will say that lad has a clue of whats going on in the town..
 

Sargonski

Well-Known Member
I've already gone over this material with you and explained why I thought his assessment credible. (BTW, you keep attributing this "17,000" number to him, when he actually said "17,500", which I tried to correct earlier to no avail.) One thing I like about McBeth is that he doesn't really try to color his analysis in favor of either side in this war. He just gives his best assessment of what the real figure ought to be. In any case, you needn't continue trying to justify why you dismiss everything else he says out of hand without actually listening to what he has to say. I'm content to let you have the final say and move on to more interesting discussions.

17000 .. 17500 ... Who Cares .. makes Zero difference to the argument and changes nothing about McBeths proven falsehoods .. lack of ability .. and the fact that doodle is a big sham .. this silliness just a deflection and dismissal dismissal of the fact that you were duped by the propaganda .. and frankly propaganda from a demonstrable moron .. having none of the purported credibility or credential .. not knowing the basic rules of a "Fact Check" .. never mind providing one.

but what more interesting discussion would you like to have .. now that you have become aware that the koolaid you been drinking is spiked ? Got to replace the old drink with something new - and then folks will say that lad has a clue of whats going on in the town..
 
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