Unvaccinated, vaccinated and covid variants.

[We Never Know]

All are true and justified.

And, one of the big problems is that the rest of the world needs to be vaccinated as well. Brazil has shown some of the same idiocy as the US and that is where the lambda variant is coming from primarily (it originated in Peru).

It would be nice to be able to travel again, but with so many still unvaccinated, this is simply not a reasonable thing to do unless there is no other option. And, yes, traveling to a location where a lot of people have yet to be vaccinated is going to cause a lot of problems.

We are at the stage in this pandemic that we have vaccines that work really well. The issue now is getting over the social issues that keep people from doing the right thing so we can get back to some semblance of normality. And yes, that means traveling again. Until more people worldwide are vaccinated, travel is not a good idea.

So, how about we actually get enough people vaccinated to give herd immunity and do the same for other countries? Maybe, just maybe, we can avoid all the pain and suffering we will go through otherwise.

How many need vaccinated to achieve herd immunity?

 

[We Never Know]

A handful of "definitely not an antivaxxer, honest" people would create threads where they "just asked questions" about why people believed negative things about antivaxxers before they engaged in long rants on why they are "skeptical" about current COVID measures and how actually, COVID vaccines are too much of a risk to vaccinate currently.

When I repeat whats been said, its not a rant.
I'm not skeptical, I've had covid.
Who says the vaccine is to much of a risk? Not me. However I did say they shouldn't force people to take it since it isn't fully FDA approved.

 

[Unveiled Artist]

A handful of "definitely not an antivaxxer, honest" people would create threads where they "just asked questions" about why people believed negative things about antivaxxers before they engaged in long rants on why they are "skeptical" about current COVID measures and how actually, COVID vaccines are too much of a risk to vaccinate currently.

Can you rephrase this?

I don't understand what you said.

 

[Kooky]

Can you rephrase this?

I don't understand what you said.

I don't really feel like it, sorry.

What I will say instead is that at this point, we have more - and more popular! - threads in RF bemoaning the alleged injustices, threats and persecutions faced by antivaxxers, and threads defending antivaxxers under the guise of "just asking questions", than we have threads with a pro-vaccination agenda.

 

[Unveiled Artist]

I don't really feel like it, sorry.

What I will say instead is that at this point, we have more - and more popular! - threads in RF bemoaning the alleged injustices, threats and persecutions faced by antivaxxers, and threads defending antivaxxers under the guise of "just asking questions", than we have threads with a pro-vaccination agenda.

Pretty much. People have nothing else to complain about but how antivaxxers are quite literally killing the world. I'm sure the unvaccinated, if they posted threads, they wouldn't care to do that. That's if they stayed up long enough to have a say without it being misinterpreted as misinformation.

Was your other post meant to be an insult?

If so, sorry I missed it. The quotations and wording threw me off I didn't know what you said.

 

[Polymath257]

How many need vaccinated to achieve herd immunity?

From what I have heard, about 80-90%.

 

[Daemon Sophic]

Isolation for a bit wouldn't hurt

Show me threads about travelers like there are threads about the unvaccinated.

No. Isolation hasn’t been possible for many decades now. The economies of so many nations are absolutely tied up with the economies of so many others. Isolation would bring world-wide economic collapse almost overnight. And that doesn’t begin to touch on social issues that necessitate travel. Even if we stopped all frivolous vacation travel just for the fun of it (which alone would bring serious hardship to every business reliant upon tourism), there is still the mail to deliver, business meetings (even discounting everything that can be done online), political states-crafting between nations, soldiers going out and returning from bases and war fronts, oil and industrial supply transport across oceans, etc…etc….

No. Stopping travel is a bad idea. Slowing it would have minimal effect upon the spread of the virus. It truly is about preventing the local spread from person to person; and that means….
1. Get vaccinated.
.
.
.
.
2. Keep your masks on over both your mouth and your nose.
3. Maintain social distancing.
.
.
4. Wash/sanitize your hands a frequently as possible.
5. Get tested for the most minor of symptoms, or any other drop of the hat.

 

[Daemon Sophic]

How many need vaccinated to achieve herd immunity?

From what I have heard, about 80-90%.

 

[Yazata]

Thought I would just posted this as a thread....

Why are people complaining about the unvaccinated but not travelers?

Because complaining about travellers doesn't serve their political purpose. Much better to create the myth of the evil, stupid and dangerous-to-everyone-else "anti-vaxxer" and then try to associate that image that they created with their political enemies.

As far as I'm aware the covid variants are being brought into the US from other countries.

Yes, so far at least. Right now, as I understand it, the US/Canada border is closed to people but not goods. (Can't endanger those supply chains.) I don't know whether that's the US's doing or Canada's. I'm told that travellers from Europe are being excluded too. But the southern border is wide open to illegal entrants who are being transported at US taxpayer expense all over the US.

When President Trump closed the US to Chinese visitors in early 2020 when the disease was largely restricted to Wuhan where it originated, it was front page news. He was excoriated ("Racist!", "Bigot!", "Xenophobe!") by the Democrats who themselves were paying no attention at all to the disease, focused instead entirely on their impeachment efforts. Then when they finally woke up to the existence of the disease, their line was that Trump had botched the initial response.

Today, the travel restrictions in place don't get a bit of attention in the press. Why? Because making an issue of them wouldn't serve their political purpose.

Now whether those travelers are vaccinated or are not vaccinated I don't know.

I think that we can be reasonably certain that the great majority of those illegally crossing the southern border aren't.

I frown on travelers for the spread and varients of the virus more than I frown unvaccinated people here in the US with some that don't even hardly get out of their community.

I still haven't seen any convincing argument explaining what danger unvaccinated people supposedly present to those who are vaccinated. It would seem to me that unvaccinated people only represent a danger to themselves.

 

[Yazata]

Sadly in my opinion had this thread only been about the unvaccinated people spreading the virus, it would have had many posts about...
-how selfish thy are
-how stupid they are
-fine them
-have them pay higher insurance
-have them banned from places
-have them fired
-how ignorant they are
-etc etc.

That's because this is political rhetoric disguised as medical talk, trying to sway the public by exploiting the public's trust and confidence in science.

I still haven't seen any halfway plausible argument for why unvaccinated people represent any danger to the vaccinated. Yet everyone is supposed to be afraid. And that fear is being used to justify removal of civil liberties and the imposition of repressive police-state tactics.

The argument seems to revolve around so-called "breakthough infections". The line is that even if you are vaccinated you can still contract covid and you still need to be afraid.

That is kind of a self-contradictory line, since if people who are vaccinated can still die of covid, then the vaccines must be far less effective than we have been told and the choice not to become vaccinated far less momentous.

The whole thing revolves around how prevalent "breakthrough infections" really are.

Here's some (sorta) credible information about the prevalence of 'breakthrough infections'.

The United States CDC says:

"Vaccine breakthrough cases are expected. COVID-19 vaccines are effective and are a critical tool to bring the pandemic under control. However, no vaccines are 100% effective at preventing illness in vaccinated people. There will be a small percentage of fully vaccinated people who still get sick, are hospitalized, or die from COVID-19...

More than 163 million people in the United States have been fully vaccinated as of July 26, 2021. Like with other vaccines, vaccine breakthrough cases will occur, even though the vaccines are working as expected. Asymptomatic infections among vaccinated people will also occur."

OK, so how many 'breakthrough cases' have there actually been?

From the same CDC document:

"As of July 26, 2021, more than 163 million people in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. During the same time, CDC received reports from 49 U.S.states and territories of 6,587 patients with COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection who were hospitalized or died."

And 1,219 of these cases were asymptomatic cases discovered by positive tests in people hospitalized for reasons unrelated to Covid!

There were 1,263 reported breakthrough deaths. 1,263/163 million = .0000077 or a 1/129,365 chance of a vaccinated person dying of covid! What's more, 3/4'ths of these deaths were over 65, so younger people would have significantly better odds than that (if that's possible).

COVID-19 Breakthrough Case Investigations and Reporting | CDC

Compare the 1,263 breakthrough Covid deaths to 5,251 deaths due to influenza in 2015 (the last year for which data for all causes of death are available). So even if we double the number of Covid deaths to correct for the fact that only about half the US population is currently vaccinated, it still appears that a fully vaccinated individual has less (about half) chance of dying of Covid than an average American has of dying of the flu in a normal year. There are flu vaccinations too, but people aren't panicking because they aren't perfect and because new flu variants appear every year. People aren't trying to destroy the middle class and mainstreet business, eliminate normal civil liberties and force everyone to wear muzzles due to the flu.

There were no less than 37,757 deaths in 2015 from automobile accidents! So it's safe to say that the average vaccinated individual has something like 1/15th the likelihood of dying from Covid as he or she has of dying from driving or riding in a car. So why aren't our wonderful leaders outlawing all use of automobiles?

2,187 people died in 2015 of complications of medical and surgical procedures. Maybe we should create a panic against medicine as well.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/LCWK10_2015.pdf

 

[We Never Know]

No. Isolation hasn’t been possible for many decades now. The economies of so many nations are absolutely tied up with the economies of so many others. Isolation would bring world-wide economic collapse almost overnight. And that doesn’t begin to touch on social issues that necessitate travel. Even if we stopped all frivolous vacation travel just for the fun of it (which alone would bring serious hardship to every business reliant upon tourism), there is still the mail to deliver, business meetings (even discounting everything that can be done online), political states-crafting between nations, soldiers going out and returning from bases and war fronts, oil and industrial supply transport across oceans, etc…etc….

No. Stopping travel is a bad idea. Slowing it would have minimal effect upon the spread of the virus. It truly is about preventing the local spread from person to person; and that means….
1. Get vaccinated.
.
.
.
.
2. Keep your masks on over both your mouth and your nose.
3. Maintain social distancing.
.
.
4. Wash/sanitize your hands a frequently as possible.
5. Get tested for the most minor of symptoms, or any other drop of the hat.

Isolation/quarantine all travelers returning from out of country vists should do so for a recommended amount of time.

 

[We Never Know]

From what I have heard, about 80-90%.

Current data suggests that around 70% of the population would need to be immune to achieve herd immunity to coronavirus.

Coronavirus Immunity.

 

[Kooky]

That's because this is political rhetoric disguised as medical talk, trying to sway the public by exploiting the public's trust and confidence in science.

I still haven't seen any halfway plausible argument for why unvaccinated people represent any danger to the vaccinated. Yet everyone is supposed to be afraid. And that fear is being used to justify removal of civil liberties and the imposition of repressive police-state tactics.

The argument seems to revolve around so-called "breakthough infections". The line is that even if you are vaccinated you can still contract covid and you still need to be afraid.

That is kind of a self-contradictory line, since if people who are vaccinated can still die of covid, then the vaccines must be far less effective than we have been told and the choice not to become vaccinated far less momentous.

The whole thing revolves around how prevalent "breakthrough infections" really are.

Here's some (sorta) credible information about the prevalence of 'breakthrough infections'.

The United States CDC says:

"Vaccine breakthrough cases are expected. COVID-19 vaccines are effective and are a critical tool to bring the pandemic under control. However, no vaccines are 100% effective at preventing illness in vaccinated people. There will be a small percentage of fully vaccinated people who still get sick, are hospitalized, or die from COVID-19...

More than 163 million people in the United States have been fully vaccinated as of July 26, 2021. Like with other vaccines, vaccine breakthrough cases will occur, even though the vaccines are working as expected. Asymptomatic infections among vaccinated people will also occur."

OK, so how many 'breakthrough cases' have there actually been?

From the same CDC document:

"As of July 26, 2021, more than 163 million people in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. During the same time, CDC received reports from 49 U.S.states and territories of 6,587 patients with COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection who were hospitalized or died."

And 1,219 of these cases were asymptomatic cases discovered by positive tests in people hospitalized for reasons unrelated to Covid!

There were 1,263 reported breakthrough deaths. 1,263/163 million = .0000077 or a 1/129,365 chance of a vaccinated person dying of covid! What's more, 3/4'ths of these deaths were over 65, so younger people would have significantly better odds than that (if that's possible).

COVID-19 Breakthrough Case Investigations and Reporting | CDC

Compare the 1,263 breakthrough Covid deaths to 5,251 deaths due to influenza in 2015 (the last year for which data for all causes of death are available). So even if we double the number of Covid deaths to correct for the fact that only about half the US population is currently vaccinated, it still appears that a fully vaccinated individual has less (about half) chance of dying of Covid than an average American has of dying of the flu in a normal year. There are flu vaccinations too, but people aren't panicking because they aren't perfect and because new flu variants appear every year. People aren't trying to destroy the middle class and mainstreet business, eliminate normal civil liberties and force everyone to wear muzzles due to the flu.

There were no less than 37,757 deaths in 2015 from automobile accidents! So it's safe to say that the average vaccinated individual has something like 1/15th the likelihood of dying from Covid as he or she has of dying from driving or riding in a car. So why aren't our wonderful leaders outlawing all use of automobiles?

2,187 people died in 2015 of complications of medical and surgical procedures. Maybe we should create a panic against medicine as well.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/LCWK10_2015.pdf

I find it interesting how you are using statistical data that suggests that vaccinations largely protect against COVID-19 and spin it to declare that vaccinations are not necessary and everybody should make up their mind independently of the scientific data available to all of us.

 

[Daemon Sophic]

Current data suggests that around 70% of the population would need to be immune to achieve herd immunity to coronavirus.

Coronavirus Immunity.

Unfortunately, the article cited in there is from April of 2020. Prior to the evolution of the Delta Variant.
The R-naught (R0) value and infectious dose (how many viral particles one needs to inhale before risking infection) are both worse (higher R0, and lower infectious dose) for the delta variant. Since it is much more infectious (some researchers likening it to chickenpox), then we need an even higher portion of the population to be immune before we can dare to presume that it won’t flare up again.

 

[We Never Know]

Unfortunately, the article cited in there is from April of 2020. Prior to the evolution of the Delta Variant.
The R-naught (R0) value and infectious dose (how many viral particles one needs to inhale before risking infection) are both worse (higher R0, and lower infectious dose) for the delta variant. Since it is much more infectious (some researchers likening it to chickenpox), then we need an even higher portion of the population to be immune before we can dare to presume that it won’t flare up again.

I didn't see the date at the bottom.
However this one is 4 days ago.

"experts estimate that it will take at least 70% of the population — with some estimates ranging as high as 90%"

Herd Immunity: How Many People Need to Get the COVID-19 Vaccine?

 

[We Never Know]

Unfortunately, the article cited in there is from April of 2020. Prior to the evolution of the Delta Variant.
The R-naught (R0) value and infectious dose (how many viral particles one needs to inhale before risking infection) are both worse (higher R0, and lower infectious dose) for the delta variant. Since it is much more infectious (some researchers likening it to chickenpox), then we need an even higher portion of the population to be immune before we can dare to presume that it won’t flare up again.

It varies a lot. We don't really know.

From June this year.

"Health impact. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the pandemic."

Herd immunity and COVID-19 (coronavirus): What you need to know


From May this year..

At the start of the pandemic, figures like 60 to 70% were given as estimates of how much of the population would need immunity from the coronavirus in order to reach herd immunity.

With the increase in variants, which are more infectious and could potentially impact the effectiveness of the vaccines, that percentage is now estimated to be higher—some say up to 85%. And it has become more difficult to pin down.

Herd Immunity: Will We Ever Get There?

 

[Daemon Sophic]

…..
…

There were 1,263 reported breakthrough deaths. 1,263/163 million = .0000077 or a 1/129,365 chance of a vaccinated person dying of covid! What's more, 3/4'ths of these deaths were over 65,….

Wow! That’s GREAT NEWS!
Per the data you cite, only 0.00077% of vaccinated people who suck in a lungful of virus from someone else (likely an unvaccinated person) will actually die from Covid. And that even accounts for most of them being over 65 years old!

We must keep in mind that unvaccinated folks over 65 years of age have a 5-10% chance of outright death from such a snoot-ful of virus. Plus a bigger chance of having lung, heart, and/or brain damage even if they do survive.
@Yazata - Your presentation shows undeniably that getting the vaccine leads directly to a 10,000 times better odds of beating the germ than for those left behind without any vaccine. Of those 163 million infected, if they had not gotten vaccinated, something like 12,000,000 would have died. But since they were wise, and got the vaccine, only 1,263 died. Right there, you’ve shown how the vaccine has saved 11,998,736 lives.

Take heed everyone!​

Thank you @Yazata for your unequivocal endorsement for people to run out right now and get their free vaccination! Kudos! We need more leaders in the conservative ranks like you turn the tide in this life or death battle.

 

[Polymath257]

The argument seems to revolve around so-called "breakthough infections". The line is that even if you are vaccinated you can still contract covid and you still need to be afraid.

That is kind of a self-contradictory line, since if people who are vaccinated can still die of covid, then the vaccines must be far less effective than we have been told and the choice not to become vaccinated far less momentous.

No. The real danger of having a large percentage of the populace unvaccinated is that they serve as a reservoir of virus that is large enough that mutations will arise and be able to spread. This drastically increases the likelihood that one of the mutations will be immune to the vaccines we have right now. Having a large population of unvaccinated people also allows for more virulent strains (such as Delta) to arise and maintain themselves.

This is how diseases become endemic. Having a large population of at-risk individuals allows for the virus to continue to be a problem.

You also conveniently ignore the people who *cannot* get vaccinated because of other medical issues (like being immune suppressed).

 

[Polymath257]

Current data suggests that around 70% of the population would need to be immune to achieve herd immunity to coronavirus.

Coronavirus Immunity.

I've heard that early on. We are now dealing with a more virulent variant. That changes the numbers upward.

 

[Yazata]

Thought I would just posted this as a thread....

Why are people complaining about the unvaccinated but not travelers?

On the subject of covid and foreign travelers, here's the small city of McAllen Texas, a largely Hispanic city of ~143,000 in the Rio Grande Valley of southernmost Texas. They have just declared a state of disaster, due to CBP (Customs and Border Protection) releasing 7,000 confirmed covid-positive "migrants" into McAllen since February, 1,500 in the last seven days! (The local news story was dated August 4)

"Both Cortez and McAllen Mayor Javier Villalobos said they have not heard "a single word" from the federal government."

City of McAllen to move emergency shelter for COVID positive migrants | KVEO-TV