What are your thoughts on the Presidential election?

[Mr Spinkles]

I'm really interested in what RFers are feeling about the election. How do you see the campaigns playing out? What do you expect to see from the candidates? Who will win?

Do you think Trump has made a case for re-election?

Is Biden entirely compos mentis?

What should be the important issues that should decide it for you?

What would be significantly different if Biden wins vs another four years of Trump?

Tell me, tell me.

I posted this in this forum as opposed to the N American debates section to try to avoid arguing. You never get the really interesting takes when people's backs are up.

Setting aside my personal politics (I lean progressive) - in my opinion, this man is unfit for office and has to go. It wouldn't matter to me if he was a Republican or a Democrat. He is dangerous. I have been saying for years, we have been very lucky so far that he has not done more damage. Trump used to be a Democrat and if he was a Democrat today, I would oppose him for the same reasons.

Many important current / former leaders of the Republican party acknowledge, or have acknowledged this. Kudos to those Republicans out there who have decided to put country before party, and oppose this guy.

When it comes to the election: I fear the Democratic Party is overconfident. Biden may be leading in the polls, but it's the electoral map that counts. And even though Biden has an edge, that is still anyone's race.

Think about it: in spite of everything that's going on right now, it's still not a blowout in favor of Biden. What does that tell you?

It tells me that this is Trump's floor. There is only upside for Trump between now and November. Half the country really, really wants to vote for a xenophobic clown. Some of them have recently become too ashamed because of Trump's continual, unforced errors. But, give them half an excuse between now and November, and some of them will take it. Maybe the economy recovers a little. Maybe the virus doesn't have a second wave. Maybe some embarrassing news comes out on Biden (I give that a 90% chance). How things could change between now and November is very asymmetric in Trump's favor, in my view.

If Trump gets a second term, I fear we may not be as lucky as we were in his first term. And yes, I realize over 150,000 Americans are dead and we had the worst economic downturn, in some ways, since the Great Depression. This time, there won't be as many "adults in the room" (because Trump purged them) and Trump will be re-elected fully triumphant in the face of Congress' attempts to check his excesses. Even Republican leaders who privately loathe Trump will have no choice but to fall in line or be purged .... whereas if he loses, some in the Party can make a case for reform in the aftermath of defeat.

My only consolation is that Trump is not a war monger. That is small comfort, but it is something.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

I'm really interested in what RFers are feeling about the election. How do you see the campaigns playing out? What do you expect to see from the candidates? Who will win?

Do you think Trump has made a case for re-election?

Is Biden entirely compos mentis?

What should be the important issues that should decide it for you?

What would be significantly different if Biden wins vs another four years of Trump?

Tell me, tell me.

I posted this in this forum as opposed to the N American debates section to try to avoid arguing. You never get the really interesting takes when people's backs are up.

So many questions, so little time! And for the record, I'm not American and therefore cannot vote, but I am a Canadian, and thus American elections are just about as important to me as those of my own country -- we are hugely affected by both.

How do I see the campaigns playing out? I think that the Trump team will use every dirty trick that they can conceive of, not least of which will include using very little that's actually true. I do not know if the Biden team can stand up to that -- we live in an era where news is no longer fairly reported, but delivered primarily by social media, in which most people look only at what they've already decided that they wish to see, and thus can learn nothing at all about what's really going on.

That last point, by the way, makes me suspect that elections may be losing their value. Might as well just get the champions out on the field, let them go at it, and the last man standing wins.

In the end, I actually do think that Biden/Harris will win, and that there will be a last-moment cascade that gives both the House and Senate to the Democrats. I will avoid saying whether I think this is a good or bad thing.

Do I think Trump has made a case for re-election? I didn't think he made a case for election in the first place, and as I've observed him for the last 3 3/4 years, I think he has repeatedely made the case for his own defeat. That, however, is my opinion. I am of the honest opinion that his supposed "strength," (the economy) is not really very much of his own making, and has been very largely driven by factors in place before his presidency began. Since then, he has been building up debt that will act as an anchor in future, through his endless tax cuts to his supporters. Whatever economic recovery he is fervently praying for after the pandemic will be hampered for a very long time by that debt, and by the debts that so many individual Americans have had to pile on during in. They'll be cutting back on everything for some time until those debts are payed down.

Is Biden entirely compos mentis? Probably not -- but is Trump? Really? Don't forget that I am assuming "compos mentis" also includes the ability to act one's age, and that Trump is clearly unable to do (unless we assume that he is prematurely senile himself, in which case, he's in his seventh age (according to Shakespeare),

"Last scene of all,
That ends this strange eventful history,
Is second childishness and mere oblivion;
Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything."

As a Canadian, I'll avoid discussing the issues important to me.

If Biden wins, there will at least be something of a return to normalcy in the world, and an immediate effort to stem the spread of this virus, which if the US doesn't smarten up, is going to get in the way of everything it tries for quite literally years. If Trump wins, throw up yours hands, because Ben Franklin will have been right: "A Republic, if you can keep it." You'll very likely have lost it.

 

[Sunstone]

First off, I am in substantial agreement with @Mr Spinkles' excellent commentary on this topic. Our differences are trivial at most.

Second, I give Mr. Biden a 75% chance of winning in contrast to Mr. Trump's 25% chance. Least Mr. Biden's supporters grow complacent, his odds happen to be the same exact odds I gave Ms. Clinton in 2016 at this stage of the cycle.

As I see it, Mr. Trump's problems began sometime ago when he departed from the economic populism that was of such huge importance to his working class base. He did that early in his presidency, and it -- in combination with several other important factors (such as his racism, misogyny, and all around incompetence) -- has led to a relatively small, but hugely significant erosion of his hardcore base -- and an even greater erosion of his not-so-hardcore 2016 base.

For example, he's lost about 6% of his hardcore non-college educated women supporters. Given that he won the electoral college by less than 100,000 votes, that all by itself might prove decisive. But he has lost even more than that! While his popularity with most Republicans continues to go up, the number of people calling themselves Republican continues to go down even faster.

In 2020, we are poised to see another Blue Wave such as we saw in 2018. It's by no means a sure thing, but we're poised for it.

A Biden win would represent not only a victory (of sorts) for America's democratic institutions -- such as rule of law -- but it would also represent a victory for the Democratic establishment (as opposed to the progressive wing of the Party). While a Biden win is hugely to be desired, it would leave the progressives with the task of figuring out ways to empower themselves and their agenda. If the progressives fail in that task, there will be tens of millions of people in this country who will be open to voting for a Trump 2.0 in 2024. The stakes are high.

Bottom Line: Mr. Trump is an existential threat to American representative democracy. He must go, but if and when he is defeated, the work of building a better America will have just begun.

 

[SomeRandom]

First off, I am in substantial agreement with @Mr Spinkles' excellent commentary on this topic. Our differences are trivial at most.

Second, I give Mr. Biden a 75% chance of winning in contrast to Mr. Trump's 25% chance. Least Mr. Biden's supporters grow complacent, his odds happen to be the same exact odds I gave Ms. Clinton in 2016 at this stage of the cycle.

As I see it, Mr. Trump's problems began sometime ago when he departed from the economic populism that was of such huge importance to his working class base. He did that early in his presidency, and it -- in combination with several other important factors (such as his racism, misogyny, and all around incompetence) -- has led to a relatively small, but hugely significant erosion of his hardcore base -- and an even greater erosion of his not-so-hardcore 2016 base.

For example, he's lost about 6% of his hardcore non-college educated women supporters. Given that he won the electoral college by less than 100,000 votes, that all by itself might prove decisive. But he has lost even more than that! While his popularity with most Republicans continues to go up, the number of people calling themselves Republican continues to go down even faster.

In 2020, we are poised to see another Blue Wave such as we saw in 2018. It's by no means a sure thing, but we're poised for it.

A Biden win would represent not only a victory (of sorts) for America's democratic institutions -- such as rule of law -- but it would also represent a victory for the Democratic establishment (as opposed to the progressive wing of the Party). While a Biden win is hugely to be desired, it would leave the progressives with the task of figuring out ways to empower themselves and their agenda. If the progressives fail in that task, there will be tens of millions of people in this country who will be open to voting for a Trump 2.0 in 2024. The stakes are high.

Bottom Line: Mr. Trump is an existential threat to American representative democracy. He must go, but if and when he is defeated, the work of building a better America will have just begun.

May I ask, what do you think Trump 2.0 would do to America?

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

May I ask, what do you think Trump 2.0 would do to America?

Too big a question. I can only answer that by saying that I think it would change the very nature of the nation permanently. Think about Turkey, and how much progress it made after Mustafa Kemal Ataturk (who created it's first Parliament, and made radical reforms to turn it into a modern, secular nation). And where is it going now under one of Trump's idols, Recep Tayyip Edorgan?

 

[SomeRandom]

Too big a question. I can only answer that by saying that I think it would change the very nature of the nation permanently. Think about Turkey, and how much progress it made after Mustafa Kemal Ataturk (who created it's first Parliament, and made radical reforms to turn it into a modern, secular nation). And where is it going now under one of Trump's idols, Recep Tayyip Edorgan?

Oh...

 

[Sunstone]

May I ask, what do you think Trump 2.0 would do to America?

My best guess is that, within ten to twenty years of a Trump 2.0, we'd be worse off for liberties than today's Chinese people, and we'd be split between a few rich and masses of poor with almost nothing left of our middle class.

We'd be a militarized state, but no longer a genuine super-power (for we would not have the economy to sustain a major war). There would be unimaginable poverty and hardship for millions of us.

But to me, the scary part is we'd be a surveillance state. Cameras and microphones everywhere, backed up by such things as facial and voice recognition technologies in combination with advanced artificial intelligence. It would be child's play for the Government to crush any rebellion before it could get off the ground. There would be almost no possible path to revolt and revolution.

Alternatively, we might have everything I just stated, except for one difference. We'd have a robust economy -- but at the price of starvation wages for most workers.

At least that's the fate I'd guess for us. A Trump 2.0 would put us squarely on the path to all of that. Of course, there would be a facade of happiness. Our nation's ever ample supply of morons would even believe they were living in the best country on earth.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

Our nation's ever ample supply of morons would even believe they were living in the best country on earth.

Well, North Korea's ample supply of morons believes the same, so why not?

 

[Father Heathen]

Benny Hill theme comes to mind.

Or Hungarian Dance.

 

[SomeRandom]

My best guess is that, within ten to twenty years of a Trump 2.0, we'd be worse off for liberties than today's Chinese people, and we'd be split between a few rich and masses of poor with almost nothing left of our middle class.

We'd be a militarized state, but no longer a genuine super-power (for we would not have the economy to sustain a major war). There would be unimaginable poverty and hardship for millions of us.

But to me, the scary part is we'd be a surveillance state. Cameras and microphones everywhere, backed up by such things as facial and voice recognition technologies in combination with advanced artificial intelligence. It would be child's play for the Government to crush any rebellion before it could get off the ground. There would be almost no possible path to revolt and revolution.

Alternatively, we might have everything I just stated, except for one difference. We'd have a robust economy -- but at the price of starvation wages for most workers.

At least that's the fate I'd guess for us. A Trump 2.0 would put us squarely on the path to all of that. Of course, there would be a facade of happiness. Our nation's ever ample supply of morons would even believe they were living in the best country on earth.

So like 1984?
I’d hate to see Americanstan turn into that.

 

[Cooky]

I'm really interested in what RFers are feeling about the election. How do you see the campaigns playing out? What do you expect to see from the candidates? Who will win?

Do you think Trump has made a case for re-election?

Is Biden entirely compos mentis?

What should be the important issues that should decide it for you?

What would be significantly different if Biden wins vs another four years of Trump?

Tell me, tell me.

I posted this in this forum as opposed to the N American debates section to try to avoid arguing. You never get the really interesting takes when people's backs are up.

If you really think about it, life hasn't changed much in America for the past 100 years. We have families, kids go to school, parents go to work... a generation dies, and the next recycle the same life, the only differences being personal hobby interests and party mediums.

 

[Cooky]

So like 1984?
I’d hate to see Americanstan turn into that.

I don't think Americans are obedient enough naturally for that to ever happen. There ain't enough prisons in the world to hold us all.

 

[SomeRandom]

I don't think Americans are obedient enough naturally for that to ever happen. There ain't enough prisons in the world to hold us all.

Never say never. People didn’t think Germany would become the Third Reich either.

 

[Scott C.]

I'm really interested in what RFers are feeling about the election. How do you see the campaigns playing out? What do you expect to see from the candidates? Who will win?

I think Trump will win, but I'm not sure of course. Because of the pandemic, mail in voting, and the general animus between the parties, I believe the election results will be hotly contested with accusations of fraud, regardless of who wins. However I believe if Trump wins, there will likely be major riots throughout the country in the name of "He cheated, so we're justified". If Biden wins, Trump will not accept the results but he will leave office peacefully. There will be much unrest among Trump supporters but no riots. Yes, I believe some pissed off liberals are more likely to burn down their cities than are pissed off Republicans. I'm concerned and am not looking forward to November.

 

[Father Heathen]

So like 1984?
I’d hate to see Americanstan turn into that.

1984 + Handmaiden's tale + Deliverance.

I don't think Americans are obedient enough naturally for that to ever happen. There ain't enough prisons in the world to hold us all.

The fact that Trump was elected at all shows just how easily a large portion of the U.S. can be manipulated into doing whatever people want them to do. Just tap it with a bible and wrap it in a flag.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

If you really think about it, life hasn't changed much in America for the past 100 years. We have families, kids go to school, parents go to work... a generation dies, and the next recycle the same life, the only differences being personal hobby interests and party mediums.

You know 100 years ago children commonly dropped out of school and worked at ten years of age, and women were fighting for the right to vote, right?
Not even touching racial segregation, or homosexuality.

 

[Augustus]

I'm really interested in what RFers are feeling about the election.

I'm feeling existential dread towards the prospect of being bombarded with coverage of the election.

 

[Erebus]

The negatives I predict if Biden wins:

-His victory will be seen as further proof that centrism is the only way to defeat the right.
-This will continue the gradual shift in people's perception. Left wing policies will be seen as extreme, centrist policies will be seen as left wing, right wing policies will be seen as centrist and far right policies will be seen as conservative.

The positives I predict if Biden wins:

-Trump won't be president. At this point, that's just about the best possible position for America to be in.


The negatives I predict if Trump wins:

-Trump will be galvanised by his victory, realise he can get away with anything and double down on his erratic, authoritarian behaviour.
-The American people will continue to suffer. There are too many ways in which this could happen to list, so I'll just refer back to the point above.
-Any politician who has watched Trump's progress will understand just how much a president can get away with. There are plenty of politicians who will be emboldened by this in the worst possible way.
-America's presence on the world stage will be in a very shaky position. Trump's coziness with authoritarians and contempt for soft power will broadcast America's role as a laughing stock at best and a dangerous threat at worst.
-Far-right politicians in other countries will be able to capitalise on people saying, "Well at least they aren't Trump."

The positives I predict if Trump wins:

-It's still possible that Trump may cross such a line that it seriously undermines trust in the Republican party as a whole. That in turn could force Republicans to disavow everything Trump stood for if they hope to win another election. I'm not optimistic here though as there are systemic problems in America that made the Trump presidency possible in the first place.

 

[Yerda]

Your "Is Biden entirely compos mentis?" question made that clear.

How many crimes has Trump committed as President? Is Trump insane, stupid, has dementia or more than one of these?

I hope you see what that question triggered and it's not "discussion" because the question itself was not a discussion question but a debate question.

Ok, fair point. I've removed that question.

 

[Yerda]

Think about it: in spite of everything that's going on right now, it's still not a blowout in favor of Biden. What does that tell you?

It tells me that this is Trump's floor. There is only upside for Trump between now and November. Half the country really, really wants to vote for a xenophobic clown. Some of them have recently become too ashamed because of Trump's continual, unforced errors. But, give them half an excuse between now and November, and some of them will take it. Maybe the economy recovers a little. Maybe the virus doesn't have a second wave. Maybe some embarrassing news comes out on Biden (I give that a 90% chance). How things could change between now and November is very asymmetric in Trump's favor, in my view.

That is a good point. It does seem like Trump's support won't slip much more. I get the feeling that if Trump can make it to Nov without doing anything too embarrassing he has a strong hand.

I have seen a couple of polls that indicate something that might be relevant. There's a good chunk of voters who are responding that they dislike Trump more than they support Biden. It might be harder to discourage Biden's vote from turning out if they're turning out to vote against Trump. Maybe that will make a difference to the outcome.

If Biden is going to win how do you think his campaign has to run?