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Will he use nuclear weapons?
- Thread starter Nimos
- Start date
Color me naïve, I just don't see Putin pulling the nuclear trigger.
Father Heathen
Veteran Member
I think Putin knows that it would be the end of him and Russia.
I think that Putin has painted himself into a corner -- and having done so, added a layer of sticky tar over the paint. It is possible, it has happened in Russia before (about a 100 years ago last time), that newly armed men facing death and making widows and orphans of their wives and children for no reason they can concern, may well turn their weapons back towards the Kremlin. And when that happens, the modern-day Boyars may themselves decide they'd like to enjoy their ill-gotten gains another day, and themselves turn against their benefactor.
In other words, I think that Putin has dug himself so deep that soon his own life may be in very real danger -- and what will a man in such a situation not risk?
In other words, I think that Putin has dug himself so deep that soon his own life may be in very real danger -- and what will a man in such a situation not risk?
Very analytical.
Out of curiosity what is the assumed nuclear target? Putin wants Ukraine. So nuking Kiev is like cutting off your nose to spite your face. Will he nuke European backers, if so, which? All of them? What are the prevailing winds? Will he get the radiation cloud from the fallout? That leaves the US, which could respond city for city. Perhaps he would bank on a liberal Democrat president being unable to take millions of innocent lives and not retaliate if Putin hits something small, like Guam.
Spirit of Light
Be who ever you want
Unfortunatly, yes i believe Putin wil use nuclear weapon
I agree. I realize I could be wrong. But I think he is more interested in wrapping it up quick now. Mostly because he got his butt handed to him in what he obviously thought was a piece of cake.
I think an increasingly pertinent question is whether he would care. I don't know, myself, and I hope we never have to find out.
Father Heathen
Veteran Member
Hopefully someone within his circle will have enough sense to see that he accidentally falls out a window or down a flight of stairs.
I've wondered about that too. No idea. I even wondered about Chernobyl as some sort of strange token target.
Wildswanderer
Veteran Member
I don't really understand why we can't arrange for that to happen.
Viker
Your beloved eccentric Auntie Cristal
It is Russia over there. Accidents seem to be the leading cause of demise for political figures there.
Twilight Hue
Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
Some say low yield nukes, but that is still horribly bad.
The radiation alone will go on for decades I think.
Radioactive Fallout from Global Weapons Testing: Home | CDC RSB
Even the testing much less any use in combat.
Everything I've read has been about the possible use of nonstrategic nuclear weapons (what was known as tactical nuclear weapons previously).
What are tactical nuclear weapons? An international security expert explains and assesses what they mean for the war in Ukraine
Whether that's an idle threat or not is a different question, but these weapons are (or at least can be) quite limited in scope. Still devastating compared to almost any conventional weapons, though.
So the assumption then is one or more tactical nukes in Ukraine for a quick and decisive victory? You are still left with radiation contamination. I just don't see it.
I'm guessing here (I used to study military doctrine a bit, but we're talking 20 years ago, and a lot has changed...).
He's not using them as part of a direct attack. Contamination alone would make that effectively useless.
Instead he'd use them...or more hopefully, the threat of using them...to defend borderlines already established. Take an area via conventional means, and threaten to use that as a staging area for deeper strikes if forces are staging for counterattacks, including transport hubs, airports and the like.
They also represent a pretty strong misdirection play. Let it be known some tac nukes are being released and brought forwards, whilst simultaneously removing conventional forces. That could credibly look like preparation for a strike, whilst also allowing conventional forces to be relieved or relocate elsewhere.
Would Ukraine take advantage of the reduction in conventional forces to advance against the threat of nukes? I mean...maybe, but I doubt it.
Finally, they'd be the ultimate reset button if the war continues to go badly, and Ukranian forces threaten Russian prewar borders. The same countries assisting Ukraine now would basically demand they stand down at that point.
The decoy ploy of pulling back to sell nuclear threat? Maybe. Fake it till you make it, right?
But again, that has Putin not actually using them.
As for Ukraine getting overzealous in a counter-offensive, I think they would be more than happy to call it quits once they reach original pre-war boarder.