Will he use nuclear weapons?

[Wandering Monk]

Out of curiosity what is the assumed nuclear target? Putin wants Ukraine. So nuking Kiev is like cutting off your nose to spite your face. Will he nuke European backers, if so, which? All of them? What are the prevailing winds? Will he get the radiation cloud from the fallout? That leaves the US, which could respond city for city. Perhaps he would bank on a liberal Democrat president being unable to take millions of innocent lives and not retaliate if Putin hits something small, like Guam.

Very little lingering fallout from an air burst.

 

[Wandering Monk]

I'm guessing here (I used to study military doctrine a bit, but we're talking 20 years ago, and a lot has changed...).

He's not using them as part of a direct attack. Contamination alone would make that effectively useless.
Instead he'd use them...or more hopefully, the threat of using them...to defend borderlines already established. Take an area via conventional means, and threaten to use that as a staging area for deeper strikes if forces are staging for counterattacks, including transport hubs, airports and the like.

They also represent a pretty strong misdirection play. Let it be known some tac nukes are being released and brought forwards, whilst simultaneously removing conventional forces. That could credibly look like preparation for a strike, whilst also allowing conventional forces to be relieved or relocate elsewhere.

Would Ukraine take advantage of the reduction in conventional forces to advance against the threat of nukes? I mean...maybe, but I doubt it.

Finally, they'd be the ultimate reset button if the war continues to go badly, and Ukranian forces threaten Russian prewar borders. The same countries assisting Ukraine now would basically demand they stand down at that point.

Listened to a great interview on Deuthsche Welle news. General Petraeus talked about the situation there. He pointed out that Ukrainian forces are spread out and only concentrate for an attack.

 

[The Hammer]

I'd bet money that he does use nukes. Probably to nuke the areas he just "annexed" in Ukraine. For two reasons I suspect. One being if he wants to use nukes without severe threat of retaliation, it makes sense to nuke something that is "yours" but has hostiles. Secondly, out of an act of "If I can't have it, no one can" mentality.

 

[Wirey]

While I doubt it, I voted yes because "Yes, if out of options" wasn't a choice. If he has to pick between killing innocent people or suffering from Excedrin Headache Number 357, I'm pretty sure he'll use them. If he's dead anyway, what has he got to lose? And disfavored leaders in Russia don't have long life expectancies.

 

[averageJOE]

This is actually real. It actually aired for all of New York.

 

[England my lionheart]

It’s an interesting question,if we go back to ww2 Stalin sent men and women unarmed and poorly equppiped to attack the Nazi invaders,cannon fodder,Putin is doing the same and he’s doing the same as Hitler by directing the front line commanders,winters on the doorstep,Hitler wouldn’t listen to his Generals neither will Putin but I doubt he will be around to make the decision for any nuclear strike.

 

[England my lionheart]

This video is quite interesting,Putin is seen as most likely to press the button but what Joe said and others before him said makes me wonder.

 

[fantome profane]

It’s going to be ok. They have a response plan.

Ukrainians plan orgy in event of Putin launching nuke