world oil reserves gone in 19 years

[Shaul]

https://www.thoughtco.com/we-will-never-run-out-of-oil-1146242

 

[stvdv]

13 jul 2018 stvdv 017 39

New estimates of worldwide crude oil reserves total 1.651 trillion bbl
(1,651,000,000,000)
https://tinyurl.com/ycvg5odz

In 2010, global crude oil demand was 86.4 million barrels per day.
86,400,000,000x365=315360000000000000
Daily global crude oil demand 2006-2018 | Statistic


1,651,000,000,000/315360000000000000=19 years left


My math might be off but it looks like, at current rate of consumption all the known oil reserves will be used up in 19 years.

If the numbers are correct, we need to act now before it is too late !!
Any suggestions?

Trump must be quite smart then
1 month ago Trump said in an interview [that shocked me; is D.T. on drugs or so?]:

"Middle East oil should be given to us, we spend so much money on war there, and our veterans have no food"
On the question of the journalist "But is it not their oil?"
Trump said "Okay they can also have some oil"

 

[james dixon]

Your "19 year" figure is not fact.

Below is what I have found; now you prove me wrong

Globally, crude's reserves-to-production ratio has hovered between 40-55 years. The 1P estimate is an estimate of proven reserves, what is likely to be extracted from a well, 90% probability. Probable reserves are given 50% certainty (2P) and possible reserves a 10% certainty (3P).
https://tinyurl.com/yd7cfczq
https://tinyurl.com/yd7cfczqv

Overall, global supply fell by 720,000 barrels per day in August, .2017
https://tinyurl.com/yctnaj3f

our forecast horizon we will be in a 104 mb/d market and the call on OPEC crude and stock change rises from 32.2 mb/d in 2016 to 35.8 mb/d in 2022. With the group forecast to add 1.95 mb/d to production capacity in this period, this implies that available spare production capacity will fall below 2 mb/d.
https://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/oil2017MRSsum.pdf

Oil is a resource… it will run out
For decades now, the topic of when our oil will run out has been the focus of analysts and industry experts. The concern is real. Oil is a resource and will eventually be depleted. Once we discover and process all sources, there’s nothing else. It’s only a question of time.


Oil still remains the largest source of primary energy worldwide. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the global supply of oil, bio-fuel and liquid hydrocarbons are still enough to meet the global demand for liquid fuels for another 25 years. The good news is that developing countries are now seriously exploring and using alternative and renewable energy.

Here’s the latest report on Oil Consumption and Demand.

1. The world oil consumption per day is 91.7 million barrels as of May 2014.
2. The U.S. is the largest oil consumer in the world, using up 18.83 million barrels a day.
3. China uses 10% of the world’s oil. It is expected to overtake the U.S. as the largest oil consumer.
4. The global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.3 million barrels a day by late 2014.
http://www.theworldcounts.com/stories/World-

Oil-Consumption-per-Day
North Sea is running too dry to meet target
Wednesday July 4, 2007
http://environment.guardian.co.uk/energy/story/0,,2117952,00.html

The real casus belli: peak oil
Tuesday June 26, 2007
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2111529,00.html

Science Panel Finds Fault With Estimates of Coal Supply

Published: June 21, 2007 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/21/business/21coal.html

Chevron announces that they now have 11.8 years of oil left at current production levels after aquiring Unocal reserves
07/08/05

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/11/business/worldbu

siness/11unocal.html?pagewanted=2&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1123732924-48wR07Ekayb0gi0r7b8l9Q

An Oil Enigma: Production Falls Even as Reserves Rise
Published: June 12, 2004
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/12/business/12RESE.html?pagewanted=3&hp

"The decline of oil and gas will affect the world population more than climate change"
http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/global.warming/'>http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/global.warming/

In January 2001, the U.S.
Department of Energy estimated the world's supply of unexploited oil reserves the world supply of oil will be totally exhausted 35 years from now (June 2003).
http://members.aol.com/mpwright9/oil.html

World oil and gas 'running out'
Thursday, October 2, 2003 Posted: 1245 GMT ( 8:45 PM HKT)
http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/global.warming/'>http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/global.warming/

The Oil Crunch
Published: May 7, 2004
The question, instead, is when the trend in oil prices will turn decisively upward. That upward turn is inevitable as a growing world economy confronts a resource in limited supply. But when will it happen? Maybe it already has.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/07/opinion/07KRUG.html

Now someone here prove me wrong.
Believe me, I WANT to be proven wrong!!​

 

[Spiderman]

Below is what I have found; now you prove me wrong

Globally, crude's reserves-to-production ratio has hovered between 40-55 years. The 1P estimate is an estimate of proven reserves, what is likely to be extracted from a well, 90% probability. Probable reserves are given 50% certainty (2P) and possible reserves a 10% certainty (3P).
https://tinyurl.com/yd7cfczq
https://tinyurl.com/yd7cfczqv

Overall, global supply fell by 720,000 barrels per day in August, .2017
https://tinyurl.com/yctnaj3f

our forecast horizon we will be in a 104 mb/d market and the call on OPEC crude and stock change rises from 32.2 mb/d in 2016 to 35.8 mb/d in 2022. With the group forecast to add 1.95 mb/d to production capacity in this period, this implies that available spare production capacity will fall below 2 mb/d.
https://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/oil2017MRSsum.pdf

Oil is a resource… it will run out
For decades now, the topic of when our oil will run out has been the focus of analysts and industry experts. The concern is real. Oil is a resource and will eventually be depleted. Once we discover and process all sources, there’s nothing else. It’s only a question of time.


Oil still remains the largest source of primary energy worldwide. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the global supply of oil, bio-fuel and liquid hydrocarbons are still enough to meet the global demand for liquid fuels for another 25 years. The good news is that developing countries are now seriously exploring and using alternative and renewable energy.

Here’s the latest report on Oil Consumption and Demand.

1. The world oil consumption per day is 91.7 million barrels as of May 2014.
2. The U.S. is the largest oil consumer in the world, using up 18.83 million barrels a day.
3. China uses 10% of the world’s oil. It is expected to overtake the U.S. as the largest oil consumer.
4. The global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.3 million barrels a day by late 2014.
http://www.theworldcounts.com/stories/World-

Oil-Consumption-per-Day
North Sea is running too dry to meet target
Wednesday July 4, 2007
http://environment.guardian.co.uk/energy/story/0,,2117952,00.html

The real casus belli: peak oil
Tuesday June 26, 2007
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2111529,00.html

Science Panel Finds Fault With Estimates of Coal Supply

Published: June 21, 2007 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/21/business/21coal.html

Chevron announces that they now have 11.8 years of oil left at current production levels after aquiring Unocal reserves
07/08/05

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/11/business/worldbu

siness/11unocal.html?pagewanted=2&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1123732924-48wR07Ekayb0gi0r7b8l9Q

An Oil Enigma: Production Falls Even as Reserves Rise
Published: June 12, 2004
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/12/business/12RESE.html?pagewanted=3&hp

"The decline of oil and gas will affect the world population more than climate change"
http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/global.warming/'>http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/global.warming/

In January 2001, the U.S.
Department of Energy estimated the world's supply of unexploited oil reserves the world supply of oil will be totally exhausted 35 years from now (June 2003).
http://members.aol.com/mpwright9/oil.html

World oil and gas 'running out'
Thursday, October 2, 2003 Posted: 1245 GMT ( 8:45 PM HKT)
http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/global.warming/'>http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/global.warming/

The Oil Crunch
Published: May 7, 2004
The question, instead, is when the trend in oil prices will turn decisively upward. That upward turn is inevitable as a growing world economy confronts a resource in limited supply. But when will it happen? Maybe it already has.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/07/opinion/07KRUG.html

Now someone here prove me wrong.
Believe me, I WANT to be proven wrong!!​

I'm afraid Shaul proved you wrong. And your "19 year" claim is not fact.

https://www.thoughtco.com/we-will-never-run-out-of-oil-1146242

 

[james dixon]

I'm afraid Shaul proved you wrong. And your "19 year" claim is not fact.

"Shaul"-?

He wouldn't post "his" facts, he posts instead a link to mumbo jumbo. If this subject wasn't so important for our future security I would let him play with himself on a public forum; but this is important and children younger that 8 should go elsewhere to feel their oats

 

[james dixon]

Trump must be quite smart then
1 month ago Trump said in an interview [that shocked me; is D.T. on drugs or so?]:

Stealing oil from some place else isn't going to extend the life of oil.

 

[Spiderman]

"Shaul"-?

He wouldn't post "his" facts, he posts instead a link to mumbo jumbo. If this subject wasn't so important for our future security I would let him play with himself on a public forum; but this is important and children younger that 8 should go elsewhere to feel their oats

I've wasted my breath.

Time to shake the dust from my feet.

There is nothing you can do, sir! Don't worry about what you can't change!

 

[SomeRandom]

I've wasted my breath.

Time to shake the dust from my feet.

There is nothing you can do, sir! Don't worry about what you can't change!

I'm all for going with the flow. But one has a duty to the future generations to figure this crap out now and have a plan. Lest we destroy humanity over so called "oil reserves."
Going backwards in terms of technology, it is not as simple as merely learning to live old school. We rely on oil way too much to snap out fingers and live like it's the 1500s. International travel, international affairs, diplomacy, jobs etc. there are many things today which rely on oil to some degree to be doable.
We have to start figuring out a solution instead of waiting for some post apocalyptic society to do it for us.

 

[Spiderman]

I'm all for going with the flow. But one has a duty to the future generations to figure this crap out now and have a plan. Lest we destroy humanity over so called "oil reserves."
Going backwards in terms of technology, it is not as simple as merely learning to live old school. We rely on oil way too much to snap out fingers and live like it's the 1500s. International travel, international affairs, diplomacy, jobs etc. there are many things today which rely on oil to some degree to be doable.
We have to start figuring out a solution instead of waiting for some post apocalyptic society to do it for us.

Yes,
People should find a solution.
I don't think the OP goes about it right.

And I like living like a caveman and love burning candles.

Cars are dangerous and expensive!

Bicycles, Horses, and carriages would leave fewer people in wheelchairs, kill less people and animals, and no more "honk honk", no more annoying sirens perhaps, and sailing accross the sea sounds more fun imo than airplanes.

So, by all means, find a solution...but if you realize there isn't anything you can do... well....worry not! It's not the end of the world. And even if it were, there's always the next life!

 

[Spiderman]

I just feel the OP is on a crusade and shouting from the roof tops in a way that serves no purpose but to get everyone's boxers and panties in a bundle, and that won't do any good.

I don't see the OP doing anything to bring about a solution; and crapping our pants over something that may or may not happen in 19 years isn't the answer!

 

[Spiderman]

Perhaps in 19 years we will remember what @Shaul said! And remember @james dixon was just as mistaken as the other false-prophets and James Dixon's, claiming the same thing in the 80's and 90's

 

[stvdv]

13 jul 2018 stvdv 017 41

Stealing oil from some place else isn't going to extend the life of oil.

I never said it would. I just shared a quote on Trump

 

[SomeRandom]

Yes,
People should find a solution.
I don't think the OP goes about it right.

And I like living like a caveman and love burning candles.

Cars are dangerous and expensive!

Bicycles, Horses, and carriages would leave fewer people in wheelchairs, kill less people and animals, and no more "honk honk", no more annoying sirens perhaps, and sailing accross the sea sounds more fun imo than airplanes.

So, by all means, find a solution...but if you realize there isn't anything you can do... well....worry not! It's not the end of the world. And even if it were, there's always the next life!

I'm not worried. But all the same, we do not use the "oh well there's always next life" to shirk responsibility though. My tradition views that as lazy, cowardly and dishonourable.
Renewable energy has to be the future. If the fat cats can make it profitable of course

Living simple is nice. But is impracticable for society at large. Especially a society that might have to travel internationally for family events and the like. And sailing across the sea takes way too long. People can't very well book meetings 6-8 months in advance, come on now.
And horses have and continue to do put people in wheelchairs, they did have sirens in the past and the horn didn't magically come about after oil.
Let's not romanticise the past too much.

 

[Shaul]

"Shaul"-?

He wouldn't post "his" facts, he posts instead a link to mumbo jumbo. If this subject wasn't so important for our future security I would let him play with himself on a public forum; but this is important and children younger that 8 should go elsewhere to feel their oats

Here is a summary from Pennsylvania State University. Their conclusion is that we are not “running out of oil”

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/eme801/node/486

The facts don’t support your assertions.

 

[Valjean]

Yes, there is oil down there, and lots of coal, as well, but we've already tapped all the convenient sources. What's left is increasingly difficult to access and environmentally problematic.
Wind and photovoltaic already rival fossil fuels in many areas, with costs diminishing rapidly. Ecologic concerns aside, the cost of accessing the remaining fossil fuel sources are increasing.

The extractive industries are engaged in a desperate end game to wring the last profits out of a moribund industry.

 

[SalixIncendium]

Unlike you, I provided lots of evidence to support my views while I continue to wait for yours.,.and wait.,.,and wait.,.,and wait.,.,and wait.,.,and wait.,.,and wait.,.,

Oh wise one, I am still waiting. Try FOX, maybe they can help you LOL

Now someone here prove me wrong.​

You've convinced yourself that you're right despite what people are presenting here.

As for me, I'm not playing your game. You will continue to wait.,.and wait.,.,and wait.,.,and wait.,.,and wait.,.,and wait.,.,and wait.,.,

...for about 19 years. You'll then have all of the proof you need.​

 

[jonathan180iq]

There's a reason that sinkholes and earthquakes are occurring in places where they shouldn't be occurring, and in ridiculous quantities. We're swiss-cheesing the ground beneath our feet, and some people are wryly smug about it.

What a bunch of weirdos.

 

[jonathan180iq]

New estimates of worldwide crude oil reserves total 1.651 trillion bbl
(1,651,000,000,000)
https://tinyurl.com/ycvg5odz

In 2010, global crude oil demand was 86.4 million barrels per day.
86,400,000,000x365=315360000000000000
Daily global crude oil demand 2006-2018 | Statistic


1,651,000,000,000/315360000000000000=19 years left


My math might be off but it looks like, at current rate of consumption all the known oil reserves will be used up in 19 years.

If the numbers are correct, we need to act now before it is too late !!
Any suggestions?

I estimated 43 years back in 2007. The numbers must keep changing.

 

[Shaul]

There's a reason that sinkholes and earthquakes are occurring in places where they shouldn't be occurring, and in ridiculous quantities. We're swiss-cheesing the ground beneath our feet, and some people are wryly smug about it.

What a bunch of weirdos.

Yes, sinkholes and earthquakes never happened before oil drilling. Wait...

 

[jonathan180iq]

Yes, sinkholes and earthquakes never happened before oil drilling. Wait...

You mean like 2,700+ earthquakes in Oklahoma since 2010, when before 2009 they averaged 1-2 per year?