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  1. Augustus

    The Real Reason Trump Won

    Calling it “misinformation” to put some blame on the incumbent for the performance on the economy is a ridiculous spin to put on it. Prices went up and the incumbent gets the blame regardless because they were in power and there is no ability to run an alternative reality with the other side in...
  2. Augustus

    The Real Reason Trump Won

    Much of the presidency is luck, but the incumbent gets the credit/blame regardless. You can make the case that things would probably have been as bad under the other side, but they were definitely that bad under the incumbent. If the economy is good, you don’t see people falling over...
  3. Augustus

    Democrats only: Are there lessons to be learned for team Harris?

    I wonder how such stats would reflect partisan lines if the other party was in power? This is largely beside the point though, as people don’t care about stats. If you look at the issues: Inflation has been high for last few years making things significantly more expensive. There have been...
  4. Augustus

    Democrats only: Are there lessons to be learned for team Harris?

    Your arguments in this thread. People don’t think about “the large scheme” they think about the last few years based on experience. Hence the need to understand people as they are not as you think they should be. People experience inflation cumulatively over time, not as a stat at any...
  5. Augustus

    Democrats only: Are there lessons to be learned for team Harris?

    The key takeaway is that you should base your ideas on how people act in reality, not how you think they should act. “yes, I understand many people can’t afford things they used to be able to, and inflation rates are the highest for a generation but the key takeaway from this is that we must...
  6. Augustus

    Democrats only: Are there lessons to be learned for team Harris?

    Again, voters don’t look at “average global inflation rates” they look at whether or not they seem to be better off than 4 years ago. Most people aren’t pouring over pages of stats and economic data, they are going on their experiences. Again, many people would perceive that differently, see...
  7. Augustus

    Democrats only: Are there lessons to be learned for team Harris?

    Do you honestly think people judge inflation based on how it compares to Weimar Germany rather than how it compares to their status a few years ago? What a ridiculous argument. So? The incumbent gets the good or bad luck of whatever happens. Always has always will. Naive
  8. Augustus

    Democrats only: Are there lessons to be learned for team Harris?

    Errr, 4 years of rampant inflation, international turmoil and perceived problems with law and order and immigration. Recent times have not been good for incumbents anywhere in the west. Why would you expect America to be different?
  9. Augustus

    Democrats only: Are there lessons to be learned for team Harris?

    And apparently most of the US electorate... Then it wasn't a fantastic campaign as the measure of a campaign is its effectiveness. has the electorate ever been other than this?
  10. Augustus

    Pressure On Biden To Pardon Trump

    Not sure they get the choice. If the president pardons them then the charge disappears regardless (afaik).
  11. Augustus

    Democrats only: Are there lessons to be learned for team Harris?

    People have short memories and a choice of 2 - many people will perceive things being worse today than 4 years ago. Therefore the incumbent gets the blame, and the guy from 4 years ago looks better. Much of the presidency is simply luck in events, but the president gets the praise/blame...
  12. Augustus

    Democrats only: Are there lessons to be learned for team Harris?

    Perceptions regarding the economy/cost of living, law and order, immigration and international affairs. A lot of people don't think these issues have got better over the past 4 years. The incumbent gets the blame for that regardless. I'd say your view that Harris had a fantastic campaign...
  13. Augustus

    Democrats only: Are there lessons to be learned for team Harris?

    I'm not sure there is any evidence that supports that, just seems like the kind of think people assume because it fits their narrative.
  14. Augustus

    Democrats only: Are there lessons to be learned for team Harris?

    Harris got more votes than B Clinton (1st & 2nd) and Obama (2nd) when they won, also more than Kerry and Gore when they lost. Hillary got more votes than all of them except Obama too. (this works as vote total or as % of US population so is not simply about population growth). She also won the...
  15. Augustus

    Democrats only: Are there lessons to be learned for team Harris?

    For the analogy to reflect the election, you'd have to note that the person making the first proposal had already been working on it for the past 4 years without much perceived progress yet now they are saying that they have worked out what they need to do and just need a few more years to turn...
  16. Augustus

    Trump mandate

    He has a mandate to be president and all the powers that go with the job, same as Bush, Obama, Biden or anyone else. He doesn't have some kind of special mandate beyond this.
  17. Augustus

    Should the United States get rid of the Electoral College?

    Although they can give disproportionate power to minority parties, including the more extreme ones. For all its faults FPTP systems are less susceptible to the extremes and "populism" (I know you are not strictly talking about PR, but it makes coalitions the norm). In addition Pr systems allow...
  18. Augustus

    Should the United States get rid of the Electoral College?

    You might be right. 2-3 small states acting together could basically control the balance of power, at least in the senate and possibly both houses. The 'Wyoming and New Hampshire' First Party - "We always side with the highest bidder".
  19. Augustus

    Should the United States get rid of the Electoral College?

    The US is a union of states, why would the smaller states agree that they should play by new rules that make them insignificant? There should be a change in the voting system to break the duopoly though. Also lots of federal power should be returned to the states. This would make the...
  20. Augustus

    Democrats only: Are there lessons to be learned for team Harris?

    Picking an unpopular candidate who runs on the "I'm not Trump" platform didn't work in 2016, so running it back was a bit of a strange move. Especially if you are saying "if we don't win it's the end of democracy and the rise of fascism", then you need to seem like you actually believe your own...
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