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A simple case for intelligent design

exchemist

Veteran Member
First : but every single observation and test shows that desintegración. (disorder is the dominant trend. I you start with a long chain of amino acids they will trend to desintegrarse rather than becoming more complex .

Second nobody is saying that order can not come from disorder, but you need a mechanism as in the example of stalactite. There is no mechanism that would organice aminoácidos in to complex self replicating molecules, in the same way there is no mechanism that would organize junk in to an airplane.

Third , all I am saying is that you need more than "just energy" to overcome statistical thermodynamics. Agree?

So

Ok so let's assume that already have amino acids in a small little pond, we have all types and ratios that you might find convinient, you also have all the sugars and catalists that you would find convinient.

Then what happens? Why did amino acids "descided" to organize themselves in the order and pattern required to make a self replicating protein? There is no natural mechanism that would "force " that pattern, and statistically it could have not happened by chance.
If what you say about desintegración [sic] were true, no long chain molecules would ever form. Didn't you ever do, or see, the "nylon rope trick" at school? Long chains form quite spontaneously, given the right starting materials - and especially so given a helpful catalyst. Don't be such a disintegrarse [sic]. :D

You are remarkably confident in your assertion that there is "no mechanism" by which complex molecules for life can arise. On the contrary, studies in abiogenesis are discovering such mechanisms all the time, though certainly it is a hell of a long haul, given the complexity of the task.

As for "you need more than just energy to overcome statistical thermodynamics" (by which I imagine you must mean entropy), that is not true. Ever come across this equation: ΔG = ΔH - TΔS? This is first yr 6th Form chemistry. The reaction occurs if the change in free energy G is -ve, i.e. the products have less free energy than the reactants. S is entropy and H is enthalpy, the energy in chemical bonds (+PV work but that's detail we don't need to dwell on). T is temperature.

You can see from this (he says, clearing his throat) that it is the combination of the change in bonding energy (ΔH) and the change in entropy (ΔS), plus the temperature of the system, that between them determine whether a reaction will occur or not. So you most certainly can go "uphill" against entropy, as it were. This is how water freezes, ΔH in this case being the Latent Heat of Fusion. When T is high, the TΔS term (which is -ve because entropy goes down on freezing) beats the ΔH term and water stays liquid, but when T falls sufficiently, ΔH wins and it freezes, even though this reduces its entropy.

All reactions are a tussle between the tendency towards disorder on the one hand and lowering the internal energy of the system by forming more, or stronger, bonds, on the other. There are a lot of bonds in a protein so plenty of ways to enable it to minimise its internal energy. This is also why nylon forms spontaneously in the nylon rope trick.

Finally, It seems I need to repeat that nobody says abiogenesis would have happened all at once: that would be silly. We don't know how it happened, but there is absolutely nothing in chemical thermodynamics to say it could not have. If there were, then we would be facing a conspiracy theory, by all the world's abiogenesis researchers. And that would be even sillier.

Comprende, Señor?
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
All excellent points - I would note that I have seen creationists that accept these facts to dismiss them as being 'allowed' by the Designer, or that only via 'a mind' can the 2LoT be 'violated.'
Well yes that was the old "thermodynamic argument" of creationists, now largely abandoned. The claim was that the 2nd Law had to be broken for organisms to become more complex and that evolution was thus thermodynamically impossible without supernatural intervention. Missing the point that organisms are not a closed system and so local entropy reductions, at the expense of entropy increase elsewhere, are perfectly possible and indeed what happens, all the time, when anything grows!
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
Direct observation and statistical thermodynamics

-Nobody has ever seen life being created naturally.

On the contrary, we have *only* seen life being created naturally. Every instance of new life happens through natural means.

- statistically, life from none life implies low entropy coming from high entropy

As longs as more entropy is released into the environment, that is not an issue.

How do you know that cars and pyramids can't be created naturally ?

Because we know what sorts of natural processes there are and none of them make cars. They do, however, make low-entropy crystals.
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
First : but every single observation and test shows that desintegración. (disorder is the dominant trend. I you start with a long chain of amino acids they will trend to desintegrarse rather than becoming more complex .

Second nobody is saying that order can not come from disorder, but you need a mechanism as in the example of stalactite. There is no mechanism that would organice aminoácidos in to complex self replicating molecules, in the same way there is no mechanism that would organize junk in to an airplane.

Well, that is *precisely* the point. Are there such mechanisms? And we know that chemical processes *can* be self-organizing and produce structure. it is the chemical attractions between the atoms that provide the mechanisms.

Third , all I am saying is that you need more than "just energy" to overcome statistical thermodynamics. Agree?

Yes, thermodynamics doesn't completely determine the dynamics. The energy of the interactions needs to be taken into consideration.

So

Ok so let's assume that already have amino acids in a small little pond, we have all types and ratios that you might find convinient, you also have all the sugars and catalists that you would find convinient.

Then what happens? Why did amino acids "descided" to organize themselves in the order and pattern required to make a self replicating protein? There is no natural mechanism that would "force " that pattern, and statistically it could have not happened by chance.

Actually, there is. It is called energy minimization. And, guess what? it is entropy that drives this self-organization! it does so because heat is released into the environment and that increases overall entropy, even though structure is formed locally.

One big issue is that entropy is NOT the same as 'disorder'. That is a popular description, but it is not fully accurate. When water freezes, it becomes more ordered. There is a release of heat into the environment, which increases overall entropy. But it is the attraction of the water molecules to each other that drives that energy release.

In the amino acids in your example, the chemical attraction between the atoms and molecules is what provides the energy and mechanism for the development of structure. The release of heat makes the overall entropy increase.
 

viole

Ontological Naturalist
Premium Member
Direct observation and statistical thermodynamics

-Nobody has ever seen life being created naturally.

- statistically, life from none life implies low entropy coming from high entropy

How do you know that cars and pyramids can't be created naturally ?

Statistically thermodynamics? Please don’t tell me you think the 2nd principle would not allow that. You would only confirm what I think about creationists scientific knowledge. And common sense. Nobody would become a complex adult after conception if the 2nd principle would not allow local increases of complexity.

And nobody has ever seen life being created supernaturally either. Actually, we know the natural exists, while the supernatural is mere conjecture without a shred of evidence. And I have been generous to use “a shred”.

But you still owe me an answer. I already answered positevely to your challenge, but you seem very shy to do the same, for some reason.

So, third try...

Evolution by natural selection could account for the complexity of life as we observe today. Do you grant this point?

And please, stay focused. Do not try to deny evolution by natural selection by arguments concerning the origin of the first cell. They are two completely different things.

Ciao

- viole
 
Last edited:

BilliardsBall

Veteran Member
Really?

well then please explain the anatomy of a dolphin to us all, and how it has a:
1) New respiratory system while old works
2) New reproductive system
3) New mating system
4) New caring for young system
5) New prey for food
6) New circulatory system
7) New ambulatory system
8) New endocrine system

compared to that of terrestrial mammals.

Since you seem to think you know.

Is that a joke? If we accept taxonomically that a land animal eventually birthed a dolphin, ALL those SYSTEMS had to be in place simultaneously in a single (or very few) generations.
 

BilliardsBall

Veteran Member
Deal - now you stop making ridiculous claims about science.

But seriously, if WHAT is axiomatically true?

This:

"In the end, I fail to see why your hero-worshipping and unyielding faith in the infallibility of those heroes trumps my actual knowledge of the subject matter."

I was obviously referring to your belief that what your hero claimed was true by virtue of your adoration of him, not by your ability to discern whether or not the things Behe claims are true or rooted in fact.

Why was that so difficult for you to get?

The point: If you claim your biology or evolution knowledge trumps mine, my Bible knowledge by the same measurement trumps yours, inviting you to leave ReligiousForums.com and join EvolutionForums.com.
 

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
The point: If you claim your biology or evolution knowledge trumps mine, my Bible knowledge by the same measurement trumps yours, inviting you to leave ReligiousForums.com and join EvolutionForums.com.
The problem is that the Bible can be shown to be wrong time and time again by almost anyone that is honest enough to interpret it consistently. Anti-science people cannot claim the same.
 

leroy

Well-Known Member
If what you say about desintegración [sic] were true, no long chain molecules would ever form. Didn't you ever do, or see, the "nylon rope trick" at school? Long chains form quite spontaneously, given the right starting materials - and especially so given a helpful catalyst. Don't be such a disintegrarse [sic]. :D

You are remarkably confident in your assertion that there is "no mechanism" by which complex molecules for life can arise. On the contrary, studies in abiogenesis are discovering such mechanisms all the time, though certainly it is a hell of a long haul, given the complexity of the task.

As for "you need more than just energy to overcome statistical thermodynamics" (by which I imagine you must mean entropy), that is not true. Ever come across this equation: ΔG = ΔH - TΔS? This is first yr 6th Form chemistry. The reaction occurs if the change in free energy G is -ve, i.e. the products have less free energy than the reactants. S is entropy and H is enthalpy, the energy in chemical bonds (+PV work but that's detail we don't need to dwell on). T is temperature.

You can see from this (he says, clearing his throat) that it is the combination of the change in bonding energy (ΔH) and the change in entropy (ΔS), plus the temperature of the system, that between them determine whether a reaction will occur or not. So you most certainly can go "uphill" against entropy, as it were. This is how water freezes, ΔH in this case being the Latent Heat of Fusion. When T is high, the TΔS term (which is -ve because entropy goes down on freezing) beats the ΔH term and water stays liquid, but when T falls sufficiently, ΔH wins and it freezes, even though this reduces its entropy.

All reactions are a tussle between the tendency towards disorder on the one hand and lowering the internal energy of the system by forming more, or stronger, bonds, on the other. There are a lot of bonds in a protein so plenty of ways to enable it to minimise its internal energy. This is also why nylon forms spontaneously in the nylon rope trick.

Finally, It seems I need to repeat that nobody says abiogenesis would have happened all at once: that would be silly. We don't know how it happened, but there is absolutely nothing in chemical thermodynamics to say it could not have. If there were, then we would be facing a conspiracy theory, by all the world's abiogenesis researchers. And that would be even sillier.

Comprende, Señor?
Aha, and how do you go from “nylon rope trick” to therefore abiogenesis occurred by a natural mechanisms, you are obviously missing some steps.

What researchers in abiogenesis have found in the last years is that abiogneesis as a grater problem that previously thought. I am not claiming that there is a conspiracy theory I am just saying that there are no good reasons to conclude beyond reasonable doubt that abiogenesis occurred naturally, and so far you haven’t presented arguments to the contrary. You believe by faith that such mechanism exist, we are dealing we stuff that we can actually observe, we know what aminoacids are, we know how can they react and we know that they don’t organize themselves in to self replicating molecules.

Your stuff about thermodynamics is irrelevant, since I am talking about statistical thermodynamics.

- The fist self replicating protein had less entropy than the “primodial soup”

- There is no known mechanism that would create order from disorder in the “soup”

- Every single observation indicates that amonacids don’t organize themselves natural in to self replicating proteins. ¿what else do you what?

I am not even asking you to show that the whole process is true, I am already making generous assumtons, we are assuming that all aminoacids can be created naturally, we are assuming that you can have a “warm little pond” with any ratio of aminoacids that you might find convenient, we are also assuming any environment that you might find convenient, we are assuming the precense of sugars, or any other molecules that you might find convenient. ¿why did amino acids organice themselves in to self replicating proteins? All the evidence that we have to date indicates that aminoacuds don’t have any bias towards creating that pattern.



Is there anything that would convince you that “natural abiogneisis” is probably not true? It seems to me that no matter what observations are made, no matter what experiments are made, you will never doubt “natural abiogenesis”
 

BilliardsBall

Veteran Member
BilliardsBall, you are not looking at this logically.

Let's say the what the Genesis say is true (hypothetically speaking), that the Flood happened, and Noah and his descendants were real people. And supposed it did happen, the Flood, in 2340 BCE.

Now, except for the Shem's descendants all the way to Abraham in Genesis 11, Genesis 10 provided no dates, ages or years, and especially not in Ham's descendants.

In earlier chapters regarding to the Flood, there were no other survivors except for Noah, his (unnamed) wife, his 3 sons and their unnamed wives, so in total 8 adult individuals.

Clearly they didn't have children, the whole time they were building the Ark and then living in the Ark for 1 year, before they disembarked.

So we don't know how old Ham was, when his wife gave birth to Mizraim/Egypt and to Cush.

Since you want to focus on Nimrod, then let's look at him.

Cush could be name given for two possible locations, Nubia and Ethiopia in Africa, or to unspecific region in the Middle East. And there are no age given to Cush, when Nimrod was born. And in Genesis 10, Nimrod was said to found cities first in Babylonia and then in Assyria.

But the problem with this, Genesis 10's description, wouldn't Cush have to be born first, then grow up to adulthood, before becoming father to Nimrod, so what was Cush's age? 20? 30? 50? Genesis doesn't say, so we don't know.

And how old was Ham when Cush was born? 98-99 years old (2 years after the Flood), like his brother Shem with Arpachshad? 110? 120? Or even older? Genesis 10 doesn't say, so we don't know Ham's age when Cush or any of others were born.

And before started his building his empire in Babylonia and Assyria, wouldn't Nimrod have to grow up? So how old was he? 20? 40? 100? Again, Genesis 10 doesn't say, so we don't know.

It could be Cush was 20, when Nimrod was born, and Nimrod when he built his first city, but that would be speculating the minimum ages of these two men. But it could be lot more. Regardless of their age, they would have to wait for decades before Nimrod was old enough to start his city-building programs.

But if the gap between the end of the Flood and Nimrod is a mere 40 years, would there be enough population to help him build 3 cities in Babylonia and 4 cities in Assyria?

I think Genesis 10 is unrealistic, if you seriously think Nimrod can built all these cities, with just 4 couples who survived the Flood, are able repopulate the world and build new cities all in a very short period of time.

All of the above, about Genesis 10, are hypotheical, of course, because I am make my point, about the impossibility of Genesis 10.

According to both Sumerian and Akkadian literature, Sargon was said to be founder of Akkad, but most likely the city already existed, and that he was born in the city.

Whatever was the case, Sargon didn't built Erech/Uruk because it had already existed over 2000 years before his time (5000 BCE). Which would mean Sargon isn't the biblical Nimrod. Uruk was the greatest city in Mesopotamia during the 4th millennium BCE, and was still important in the first half of 3rd millennium BCE (3000 - 2000 BCE). As I stated in my earlier reply, Uruk began declined in importance, because of Sargon conquered all of Sumer.

Sargon also didn't build Assur, one of the cities that Nimrod had allegedly constructed. Archaeological evidences showed that Assur has been around, since at least 2600 BCE. Hence, Assur would have also predated Genesis mythological Flood (2340 BCE).

Genesis 10 is certainly not historical accounts, and a lot of is also weak in archaeological department.

Anyway, Nimrod isn't Sargon. Sargon may or may not be founder of Akkad, but he certainly wasn't founder of Uruk, nor that of Assur.

Of course, you are going to ignore the archaeological evidences about Uruk and Assur, because that's what you always do. All you do is make excuses, when you ignored the evidences, and then make false equivalent like with you linking Sargon and Nimrod.

What you need to understand, that we have both historical and legendary records, but even more important, we actually have archaeological evidences of the ages of many ruins, including that of Uruk, Ur (a city that Abram/Abraham was born in, which also predated the imagainary Flood of Genesis), Eridu, etc, which not only predated Sargon, but also predated the 3rd millennium BCE. And we have some archaeological of the Akkadian empire that Sargon started.

My point is that based on both historical records and archaeological evidences, there were no Flood that disrupted the Sumerian-Akkadian civilisation in the 3rd millennium BCE, and caused decades of gap.



This is the only part you got right, the Old Testament was written in Hebrew.

BUT, Hebrew as a written language, didn’t exist until at least the 10th century BCE, perhaps even as early the 11th century, but that’s more likely Proto-Canaanite alphabets, not Palaeo-Hebrew (ancient Hebrew).

The 10th century BCE inscriptions found on the Zayit Stone and the writings on the Gezer Calendar are the earliest evidences of palaeo-Hebrew alphabets. But neither of these discoveries contain any passage from the Old Testament.

The oldest evidence found containing passage from Numbers 6, is the badly damaged Silver Scrolls, where part of the Priestly Blessings survived. It has been dated between Josiah’s reign and the fall of Jerusalem (so either late 7th century or early 6th century BCE, found in the Ketef Hinnom cave that served as a tomb.

There are no 3rd or 2nd millennia BCE Bronze Age Hebrew Scriptures written in cuneiform or hieroglyphs. The Torah didn’t exist in the 2nd millennium BCE.

Here are the issues, my friend:

1) You set a late date for the Flood, then said Nimrod didn't have time following the Flood, there are no Flood Sumerian disruptions, etc. all predicated on a late date for the Flood, a date I cannot consent to, based on my knowledge of the Hebrew scriptures.

2) You are choosing to take "he incepted [what are now major cities]" as "he personally built cities, when only a few people were on the Earth".

3) I never claimed 3rd or 2nd millennia BCE Hebrew scriptures. Moses would have lived about 14 centuries before Christ.

4) There are literally thousands of proofs of the Bible in modern archaeology, so why are we not starting there? You've already said you feel the Flood story may be a metaphor, so why not start with concrete proofs of the Bible? What is your agenda here?

Thank you.
 

BilliardsBall

Veteran Member
Sorry? Oh, I see. I think.

Look, I've just told you where, according to my understanding, the current limits of scientific theories lie in this area. Perhaps though, I need to spell out something I had presumed you had already understood, namely that the limits of science are set by the limits of what is testable by (reproducible) observation of nature. So the reason science does not know what happened right at the start is that we cannot currently think of any observation of nature that could be made to discriminate between any hypotheses that might be put forward.

What the bible - of all things - has to say on the subject is obviously neither here nor there, as ( a ) it is not a source of scientific hypotheses about nature and ( b ) even if it were, it would not solve the problem of the lack of observations that could be made relating to that epoch.

I reiterate: science is not desperate to fill the gaps in our knowledge at any cost. The gaps remain until such time as a scientific, i.e. testable, theory can be put forward to deal with the issue in question. That is just how the scientific method of studying the physical world works. Science does not do the "God of the Gaps* ".

* That phrase, by the way, was popularised by Prof Charles Coulson, a committed Christian and sometime Chairman of the Methodists' Conference, whose mathematics lectures I attended in my first year at university. A charming man. I recall fondly his phrase: "Now, we integrate this beggar here....."

I think I understand:

1) A science hypothesis must be eminently testable/verifiable/falsifiable to be even a candidate for reasoning/testing.
2) We cannot logically test for conditions, therefore, outside the known universe.
3) Therefore, taking any Bible statements for possible gedanken, even where such gedanken might provide a plausible alternative for dark energy or current inexplicable expansion of space is verboten.

Summing 1-3 from you, it is inappropriate for us to THINK when studying the Bible.
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
Is that a joke? If we accept taxonomically that a land animal eventually birthed a dolphin, ALL those SYSTEMS had to be in place simultaneously in a single (or very few) generations.

No, a land animal did not give birth to a dolphin. Sheesh.

A land animal gave birth to another land animal that found fish tasty. That taste spread through the population over a few generations.

Then, one of those land animals gave birth to a land animal that also swam a bit better. That ability spread through the population over the course of several generations.

Then, a land animal gave birth to another land animal that had slightly webbed feet, making it easier to swim. That adaptation spread through the population over several generations.

After a few more generations, these animals were spending a fair amount of time in the water, but also spending a fair amount of time on land. Some had adapted to water life in other ways: being able to hold their breath for longer.

After a while longer, some of the population of animals were spending the majority of time in the water, even though they also spent some time on the land, say to procreate.

Over more generations, some gave birth in the water before moving to land for a while. They still spent most of their time in the water. They had adapted by being able to hold their breath for longer and having blood that binds oxygen a bit better.

As more generations passed, more and more time was spent in the water, including giving birth. It became rare to go on land.

As more generations passed, some of these animals never go back to the land. They spend their whole lives in the water.

As even more generations pass, they become more and more adapted to life in the water.

We now have a water animal. At no point did a purely land animal give birth to a water animal.
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
I think I understand:

1) A science hypothesis must be eminently testable/verifiable/falsifiable to be even a candidate for reasoning/testing.
2) We cannot logically test for conditions, therefore, outside the known universe.
3) Therefore, taking any Bible statements for possible gedanken, even where such gedanken might provide a plausible alternative for dark energy or current inexplicable expansion of space is verboten.

Summing 1-3 from you, it is inappropriate for us to THINK when studying the Bible.


No, the replacement for 3) is: therefore any speculation that goes against known physical processes is verboten. Whether it is inspired by the Bible or not is irrelevant. The deviation from solid science is the issue.
 

BilliardsBall

Veteran Member
And once again, such a proposal is *only* presented because of attempts to reconcile the Bible with science. There is no reason other than such an attempt to even consider such a proposal. And, the actual evidence is that this proposal simply doesn't fit with the facts.

What facts do you have regarding what is outside the known universe?
 

BilliardsBall

Veteran Member
1) Easily done. For most amphibians, oxygen diffuses through the skin as well as being available through gills (in young) and lungs (in adults). There is already more than one respiratory system in place.

2-9) Seldom required.

In fact, during the transition, most of these systems stay the same. For example, the eggs of amphibians are still laid in water, no caring is done for the young, similar strategies for finding food are used, no new circulatory system is required, the ambulatory system is based on the lobed fins of the ancestor fish, etc.

In going back to the water (say, with whales), there is a transitional stage (like with penguins, otters, sea lions, etc) where the species is both land-based and water-based.

2-9 "food, reproduction, not dying of exposure" are SELDOM REQUIRED? Do I understand you?

And do I understand that penguins/otters/sea lions to new creatures isn't the sort of macro change regarding 1-9 I envisioned? Changing kinds?
 

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
Aha, and how do you go from “nylon rope trick” to therefore abiogenesis occurred by a natural mechanisms, you are obviously missing some steps.

What researchers in abiogenesis have found in the last years is that abiogneesis as a grater problem that previously thought. I am not claiming that there is a conspiracy theory I am just saying that there are no good reasons to conclude beyond reasonable doubt that abiogenesis occurred naturally, and so far you haven’t presented arguments to the contrary. You believe by faith that such mechanism exist, we are dealing we stuff that we can actually observe, we know what aminoacids are, we know how can they react and we know that they don’t organize themselves in to self replicating molecules.

Your stuff about thermodynamics is irrelevant, since I am talking about statistical thermodynamics.

- The fist self replicating protein had less entropy than the “primodial soup”

- There is no known mechanism that would create order from disorder in the “soup”

- Every single observation indicates that amonacids don’t organize themselves natural in to self replicating proteins. ¿what else do you what?

I am not even asking you to show that the whole process is true, I am already making generous assumtons, we are assuming that all aminoacids can be created naturally, we are assuming that you can have a “warm little pond” with any ratio of aminoacids that you might find convenient, we are also assuming any environment that you might find convenient, we are assuming the precense of sugars, or any other molecules that you might find convenient. ¿why did amino acids organice themselves in to self replicating proteins? All the evidence that we have to date indicates that aminoacuds don’t have any bias towards creating that pattern.



Is there anything that would convince you that “natural abiogneisis” is probably not true? It seems to me that no matter what observations are made, no matter what experiments are made, you will never doubt “natural abiogenesis”

The hypothesis of abiogenesis has already passed many of the tests that would indicate that it was not true. It is getting more and more difficult to refute since it passed the early easy tests. Now one has to find more difficult tests for it to pass or fail.

And when simple claims of yours are demonstrated to be wrong the proper attitude to take is to admit that you are wrong. You were wrong about long chains forming naturally. The best thing to do is to own up to that error and then people can move on.
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
What facts do you have regarding what is outside the known universe?

Irrelevant. We use known physical principles to extrapolate. Violation of those principles goes beyond the science. Suggesting a water enclosure for the observable universe goes so far beyond known physical principles as to be laughable.
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
2-9 "food, reproduction, not dying of exposure" are SELDOM REQUIRED? Do I understand you?

Clearly not. Those are accomplished without any great changes through adaptation.

And do I understand that penguins/otters/sea lions to new creatures isn't the sort of macro change regarding 1-9 I envisioned? Changing kinds?

Do you realize that penguins, otters, and sea lions derived from land animals? They are *prefect* examples of species in transition from land to water. is it really so difficult to see that sea lions, given a bit more adaptation, would be very similar to dolphins?
 

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
2-9 "food, reproduction, not dying of exposure" are SELDOM REQUIRED? Do I understand you?

And do I understand that penguins/otters/sea lions to new creatures isn't the sort of macro change regarding 1-9 I envisioned? Changing kinds?

You forgot that there is no "change of kind" in evolution. Sea lions have many of the traits needed that you claimed had to "appear at once". Currently there is not a pressure that drives them to give birth in the water, but that is all that remains to make them the modern equivalent of "whales" in a slow change from a land animal to an ocean dwelling animal.
 
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