I Didn't say anything about Odds...
I Was talking about chance.
Odds are basically Theoretical Probability which as its name suggests, have nothing to do with actual probability except for the predicted set of possible results (Which is also btw, not relevant to a sample of one item)
If I flip a coin, the odds of the coin landing on heads are a 50/50 chance, each time I toss the coin.
Yeah, I know how odds (
theoretical probability) work.
but that's a bit different than probability (
experimental)...
Probability is something that is dynamic. (Chance is based on Probability)
for example, the odds an egg will break falling from a 100 ft height, are 50%
It can either break or not (no matter how many samples we take into consideration).
The probability (chance) of it breaking is much much higher!
How so? If you drop 1000 eggs and only 1 egg doesn't break, chances are more towards the egg breaking (99.9% chance or 0.999 probability).
As far as we can say, The chances of life emerging in a universe, are 100%...
As we don't really have any other reference to check against it.
(Basically, it will be considered an impossible thing to predict as you need more than one sample to calculate chance).
Now as for the question of a God, It is not a 50% chance... as we don't have a known number of samples.. If we had known that out of 100 Gods, 50 created life, we could say there is a 50% chance of a God creating life... as we yet to even know if there is one God, the question of probability is not relevant rather a theoretical probability.
Even so, The theoretical probability is also not relevant to the question of God, as we don't know the number of possible sets here. It might be that god created life. It might be that Nature, It might be Alien race, It might be that we are a simulation, It might be we are not even real so life are not even created... there is an unknown number of possible creators of life that we can't even calculate the odds of it happening...
So Chance.. Not Odds...
A fact about chances is that the true chance of something happening does not change as a result of our knowledge about the object.
that's wrong.
It is the predictability of those chances that we are estimating on account of our knowledge about the object, how it behaves, what it is made of, how the various forces of nature affect it, etc. that we base our calculations of chance upon. In this case you are talking about life. No one knows how life originated. No one really knows what life is. So how is it that we are closer than we were ages ago at predicting the possibility of life existing elsewhere in the universe?
Again... lets assume we can today observe 1000 planets and we don't have any data on them, it is true that the odds of life being able to emerge on each planet are very very low... because as far as we know, we are the only planet with life...
This will make the chance of life emerging on other planets close to zero.
But then, we discover that 30 out of those planets can actually support life and life might emerge on them...
From this knowledge, we can more precisely estimate the chances of life emerging on other planets and they will be higher than the chance we knew before.