The probability of somebody cheating at Poker in a casino is low, but if they produce 10 royal flushes in a row, the probability of chance is way lower.
I don't agree with your peculiar take on gambling probabilities. Most gambling houses win huge profits precisely due to how people establish probabilities so poorly. We establish CORRECT probabilities based on math. When you get a royal flush the probability is very low compared to all the other hands possible. But this probability does NOT change when a new hand is produced.
Every single time we get dealt a new hand we get precisely THE SAME probability of a royal flush. And that probability is NOT influenced AT all by what hand happened BEFORE or AFTER. You have a "common sense" approach to gambling. And that is PRECISELY how the gambling houses make their money. If everyone was good at stats, the houses would NOT be able to offer high rollers free drinks OR keep their doors open very long. They happen to KNOW that you are likely to gamble more money if you have a very high winning streak.
The house may lose on an INDIVIDUAL hand or on a particular number of hands, but taken as a WHOLE, they always win. Look at Vegas.. Very PROSPEROUS town, Vegas.
So too for the universe, if you could calculate the probability of God's existence being a billion to one, this would still be far more likely than the odds of a fluke- which are practically infinitely low, according to the number of multiverses proposed to overcome the odds.
So, your bad method of establishing gambling odds apply to the universe, ok.. let's take a peek. ( I'm not an expert statistician, so, I'll have to give you the benefit of the doubt. )
A billion to one FOR the probability of God's existence. I wonder why you consider it so high?... Ok, well, let's just play your hand.
So, something we have NO evidence for at all in any way.. has a higher probability than things that happen very often. Hmmmm interesting premise. We KNOW that chance events happen with HUGE frequency, but we are told to .. put an extremely LOW probability on these actually happening. Hmmm
Can you explain that?
i.e. we have no direct empirical evidence for any explanation do we? All we can do is consider which is least improbable.
You might be confusing not being able to make a probability to establishing a low probability.
If we have NO empirical evidence then we simply CANNOT make ANY probability claim.
IF we can GET some empirical evidence for or against a probability, then we can start. But to imagine that simply because we don't KNOW something that it is also IMPROBABLY TRUE.. that would be a fallacy. If you don't know ANYTHING at all about something, then your ACTUAL probability is 50%. That's the NEUTRAL position. Not ZERO.
Now, in the case of the UNIVERSE, we KNOW for a fact, that everything IN IT that can be observed empirically HAS a natural physical material cause. So the PRIOR probability is very HIGH that whatever else we discover about it will ALSO be physical and material and so on...
So at LEAST 50% FOR material causation and NOTHING AT ALL YET for some supernatural causation. That's 50 to nuthin' buddy. I know where I'm going to place my bet.
What we seem to be disagreeing on here is how you have established your priors. But continue. I'm confident that you will explain that bit.
OK one rather large example involving the greatest question in the history of science, was the universe static/eternal or did it begin in a specific creation event?
Ok, I love examples.. We have a great question. Got it.
Well, most scientists agree on the Big Bang Theory... this isn't such a big scientific "question" right now.
Atheists overwhelmingly preferred and predicted the former (no creation= no creator) 'Big Bang' was the term originally used to mock the priest Lemaitre's 'primeval atom' for what they complained of as the overt religious implications of a specific creation event .'pseudoscience' Hoyle called it
Hoyle was a theist. But. ok, let's say that most atheists held to the static nature of the universe. When they were shown otherwise, they mostly all changed their mind.
which prediction was correct?
IT doesn't matter really if someone is right by using the wrong methods. The creationists were wrong. They believe that god magic created the universe, the Big Bang was never part of the model. They mistakenly thought it fit. Lemaitre obviously didn't agree.
The big bang explains a bit about HOW the universe started. but says absolutely NOTHING about "who".. as if.
Now who is talking about chance ?
When you use faith as a method to make a prediction about the nature of reality, such as a roll of the dice or anything at all, your probability of being correct is NO MORE THAN MERE CHANCE.
So, yeah, they rolled a seven, they got a royal flush, but we can expect some wins in a gamble. But in the gambling house of REALITY. the house always wins. Science is the best method to establish what may BE the correct interpretaion of reality.
Faith is found in some old book .. so, let's HOPE that reality matches that book.. and now , you think you have a HIT.. the bells chime, the lights go off.. the coins drop and everyone keeps gambling.. and losing.. because the method that they use is false.
The house uses CORRECT statistical analyses and WINS.. more often than not.
Yes, acknowledging faith is acknowledging we can't prove our beliefs
Ouch!!
So stats and probabilities are OUT the door when establishing the truth of your beliefs.
I wonder why you even bothered to bring them up.
Could have saved us a lot of time.
I guess you don't have to bother now figuring out all of your probabilities.
And don't go to Vegas.. you're more likely to LOSE than to win..
You see, Vegas is ALL ABOUT figuring out precise probabilities.. they will eat anyone up who doesn't.