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Contingency plans ahead of possible Trump win

Copernicus

Industrial Strength Linguist
ok, I like constitutional republic better.

You keep avoiding the word "democracy", but no countries are democracies by your definition. Nevertheless, all republics are representative democracies that also qualify as republics. Lots of them have formal constitutions that specify how the government works. The only thing unique about the US is the electoral system for electing presidents. Other countries tend to use direct popular election, the same process used in the US to elect all other types of representatives. The only reason for the existence of the electoral system was to preserve the institution of slavery in the pre-Civil War period. It is an anachronism.
 

F1fan

Veteran Member
Your right. No matter how you look at it, the election will come down to Pennsylvania.

Historical Pennsylvania Poll Averages: (Real Clear Polling)
2016 Clinton 11/1 Poll 46.8% Actual 47.5% Diff 0.7%
2016 Trump 11/1 Poll 44.7% Actual 48.2% Diff 3.5%

2020 Biden 11/1 Poll 49.7% Actual 50.0% Diff 0.3%
2020 Trump 11/1 Poll 45.4% Actual 48.8% Diff 3.4%

2024 Harris 9/21 Poll 49.0%
2024 Trump 9/21 Poll 47.3%

Projected actuals based on previous years

2024 Harris 9/21 Poll 49.0% Actual add 0.7% Final Projected 49.7%
2024 Trump 9/21 Poll 47.3% Actual add 3.4% Final projected 50.7%

If Trump underperforms in polls like the last two elections Trump should win PA and the election. Either way it will be close.
Since the “before election” averages included all the way up to the election we will have to wait for more polling data in the next six weeks. If Harris’ lead increases more and more then that will make the likelihood of a Harris win higher.
 

Alien826

No religious beliefs
I have a rock solid contingency, my UK citizenship. The problem is, like many of those that blow off steam by saying they will leave the country, that when it comes down to a practical consideration, the inconveniences are greater than the benefits, currently at least. Where to go? Can you get a work visa there? What is health care like there, and would they let you access it? What does your wife/husband think about it? What about leaving the family? And so on.

Something I am doing is applying for US citizenship, though that's not the primary reason. As a Permanent Resident I can only be out of the country for a certain amount of time before I lose my right to return here. Also it opens me to the possibility of deportation if Trump really gets going with his removal of immigrants. As a citizen, I can consider waiting out the MAGA period abroad then returning. I'm retired so a job is no problem.

All that said, I'm not as much at risk from Trump as some. As a white, CIS male heterosexual I'm probably safe for a while if I keep my head down. Hopefully it will pass, or I could die before it gets too bad, I'm pretty ancient.
 

Pogo

Well-Known Member
"While often categorized as a democracy, the United States is more accurately defined as a constitutional federal republic. What does this mean? “Constitutional” refers to the fact that government in the United States is based on a Constitution which is the supreme law of the United States. The Constitution not only provides the framework for how the federal and state governments are structured, but also places significant limits on their powers. “Federal” means that there is both a national government and governments of the 50 states. A “republic” is a form of government in which the people hold power, but elect representatives to exercise that power."



However North Korea is a democratic republic ;)
Most of us can recognize that categories can be refined without leaving the aggregate category.
 

Clizby Wampuscat

Well-Known Member
Since the “before election” averages included all the way up to the election we will have to wait for more polling data in the next six weeks. If Harris’ lead increases more and more then that will make the likelihood of a Harris win higher.
Sure but I can’t predict the future.
 

We Never Know

No Slack
Most of us can recognize that categories can be refined without leaving the aggregate category.
I have noticed you use 'us' and 'we' often.
Who is 'us' and 'we'?
Do you speak for others?
Do you have a mouse in your pocket?
Do you have split personalities?
Or?
 

anotherneil

Well-Known Member
No, it is a type of democracy better described as a constitutional republic.
Here's the way I think of it - the US is a constitutional republic; republic describes the type of state that it is (as opposed to a monarchy); it's constitutional because it's based on and confined to a constitution. With a constitution, a republic is like a mission with a plan & without a constitution, it's like a mission without a plan.

Democracy refers to the type of government system; the reason it's different from being a description of a state per se is because governments are "maintained" like a vehicle or "updated" like computer software; they have to go through periodic or ad hoc changes, such as elections or laws that are passed or repealed.

In reality, states can change (I think this boils down to where its geographic borders are, which can move around), but in principle, they can be perpetual (i.e., borders always stay the same).

The US Constitution, including the amendments, doesn't specifically grant voting rights to individuals*; being a democracy entails specifically being granted voting rights. Because of this, it is not accurate to refer to the US as a "constitutional democratic republic".

However, the US is a democracy in the sense that the states do grant voting rights to individuals, which the states and the people have the right to do because of the 10th Amendment:

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.

Theoretically, the US could exist without individual voting rights (in practice today, it doesn't), and if this hypothetical US without individual voting rights were to exist, then it would literally be incorrect to describe the US as a "constitutional democratic republic" - it would be false in that scenario.

* What the US Constitution and amendments do say about individual voting rights (as opposed to votes by members of congress) are conditional stipulations to the states; they can sort of be paraphrased like this: you - the state - don't have to give your people the right to vote, but if you do, then you can't limit this right based on this or that characteristic or condition (race, sex, paying a poll tax, etc.).
 
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PureX

Veteran Member
I am certain that since Jan 6th there have been some very high level meetings behind closed doors about what to do should that scenario ever occur again. And specifically, what to do if those insurrectionists had been successful in occupying the capital, killing their 'enemies' and declaring Trump our new king. And I can guarantee that this action would not, and will not EVER be allowed to stand.

If Trump were to win this election, and he begins turning the judicial branch of government into his personal 'goon squad' (which he certainly would do) there are already plans in place to put a stop to it, and to him. I guarantee it. There will be no Emperor Trump. One way or another all this Trump idiocy is coming to an end. Either he will lose the election and that will put an end of it. Or he will win, start destroying everything he touches, and that will be the end of him.

We are in for a bit more upheaval, but when it's passed, Trump and the fascist insanity that supported him WILL BE QUELLED.
 
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