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Coronavirus Facts and Information thread:

sun rise

sun rise

The world is on fire
Premium Member
Quagmire said:
https://www-wired-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.wired.com/story/bill-gates-on-covid-most-us-tests-are-completely-garbage/amp?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=#referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.wired.com/story/bill-gates-on-covid-most-us-tests-are-completely-garbage/
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The story title is misleading. It's not that tests don't work but it takes so long to get the results back that you might be over it days later. What's needed is a fast test.

But people aren’t getting their tests back quickly enough.

Well, that’s just stupidity. The majority of all US tests are completely garbage, wasted. If you don’t care how late the date is and you reimburse at the same level, of course they’re going to take every customer.
 
Stevicus

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
Health officials are quitting or getting fired amid outbreak

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (AP) — Vilified, threatened with violence and in some cases suffering from burnout, dozens of state and local public health leaders around the U.S. have resigned or have been fired amid the coronavirus outbreak, a testament to how politically combustible masks, lockdowns and infection data have become.

One of the latest departures came Sunday, when California’s public health director, Dr. Sonia Angell, was ousted following a technical glitch that caused a delay in reporting hundreds of thousands of virus test results — information used to make decisions about reopening businesses and schools.
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Last week, New York City’s health commissioner was replaced after months of friction with the Police Department and City Hall.
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A review by the Kaiser Health News service and The Associated Press finds at least 49 state and local public health leaders have resigned, retired or been fired since April across 23 states. The list has grown by more than 20 people since the AP and KHN started keeping track in June.

Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, called the numbers stunning. He said they reflect burnout, as well as attacks on public health experts and institutions from the highest levels of government, including from President Donald Trump, who has sidelined the CDC during the pandemic.

“The overall tone toward public health in the U.S. is so hostile that it has kind of emboldened people to make these attacks,” Frieden said.

The last few months have been “frustrating and tiring and disheartening” for public health officials, said former West Virginia Public Health Commissioner Dr. Cathy Slemp, who was forced to resign by Republican Gov. Jim Justice in June.

“You care about community, and you’re committed to the work you do and societal role that you’re given. You feel a duty to serve, and yet it’s really hard in the current environment,” Slemp said in an interview Monday.

The departures come at a time when public health expertise is needed more than ever, said Lori Tremmel Freeman, CEO of the National Association of County and City Health Officials.
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It appears burnout and a generally hostile tone from the public about masks, lockdowns, social distancing is taking a toll on health officials. This, at a time, when their expertise is needed most.

The hostile attitude towards public health officials is rather disgraceful. It's like blaming the TV weather man if the weather is bad.
 
Stevicus

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
sun rise

sun rise

The world is on fire
Premium Member
Shaul said:
The R naught numbers for the majority of states is less than 1.
Rt COVID-19
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Many of those numbers are encouraging, no doubt about it. But
it's worth paying attention to the FAQ issues from that site:

Known Issues
While we believe our model is very strong, all models have limitations because they reduce a complex reality into a simple system. You should be aware of the following limitations of this model when interpreting the results:
  • Our model relies upon valid data from COVIDTracking.com, and they in turn rely on states to provide timely and accurate data as well. Unfortunately, data can be noisy, incorrect, delayed, and otherwise wrong. While on average, we believe the data to be correct, there are times when an errant datapoint throws the model off. Please let us know if you see an instance of this.
  • Our model attempts to correct for testing by looking at what is essentially the positivity rate. This positivity rate changes over time because the group of people tested changes. If anything, our model may understate Rt currently because far more people without symptoms are tested, thus driving the positive percentage down and overstating a downward trend in cases.
  • Our model relies upon a distribution for the delay between infection and reported positive test. Most of the data used to generate this distribution is from Germany and a handful of other countries – it is quite possible this delay distribution may look very different in the US and state by state.
And there are curves like this one that show resurgence for a time.

Capture.PNG


Finally behavior change can drive the curve. In school classes with no masks and no distancing are just the kind of behavior to cause an upward spike.

And as noted, the curves depend on accurate reporting. California had a mess that is now being resolved. I track stats on my county level and they've said:

How Data Backlogs are Affecting Contra Costa County

Contra Costa Health Services (CCHS) is adding thousands of records to its COVID-19 databases this week after California corrected a massive backlog in its case reporting system. The new information may substantially change local data from as far back as mid-July.
...
Separately, we are working with Kaiser Permanente and the CDPH to resolve a data-reporting issue that has prevented an estimated 8,000 to 10,000 local test records from entering our database during the past three weeks.
...
Once resolved, these changes may cause large increases to totals for number of tests administered and number of positive cases in the county. Daily totals and statistics that rely on 7- or 14-day daily averages may also change retroactively.
 
Revoltingest

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
sun rise said:
WVU Researchers Dispute Study On Neck Gaiter Effectiveness

However, toxicologists at WVU are disputing that claim.

According to their study, the fit of the gaiter is key.

If the gaiter is a good fit, WVU says they can reduce exhaled droplets comparable to an over-the-ear mask.
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I can see why the disparity.
The gaiter wearers I've seen have the things either under
their nose, or the fit around the nose has huge gaps.
I tried the gaiter approach. It seemed useful only if I
have it sitting between the bridge of me schnoz & me
glasses. (It's exactly as uncomfortable as you imagine.)
 
Stevicus

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
Virus flareups in Europe lead to club closings, mask orders

PARIS (AP) — New flareups of COVID-19 are disrupting the peak summer vacation season across much of Europe, where authorities in some countries are reimposing restrictions on travelers, closing nightclubs again, banning fireworks displays and expanding mask orders even in chic resort areas.

“Unfortunately, this virus doesn’t play ball,” British Transport Secretary Grant Shapps told Sky News.

The surges have spread alarm across Europe, which suffered mightily during the spring but appeared in recent months to have largely tamed the coronavirus in ways that the U.S., with its vaunted scientific prowess and the extra time to prepare, cannot seem to manage. The continent’s hardest-hit countries, Britain, Italy, France and Spain, have recorded about 140,000 deaths in all.
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A new public awareness campaign by Spain’s Canary Islands depicts a family gathering for a grandfather’s birthday, with people taking off masks and embracing. The grandfather ends up in a hospital bed with COVID-19.

In France, thousands of vacationing Britons scrambled to return home Friday to avoid having to self-quarantine for 14 days following Britain’s decision to reimpose restrictions on France because of a resurgence of infections there. Ferries added extra trips back to England, and trains were running out of space.

Some of the toughest new measures were announced in Spain, which has recorded almost 50,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the past 14 days.

Health Minister Salvador Illa, after an emergency meeting with regional leaders, said nightclubs nationwide were ordered to close. Visits to nursing homes will be limited to one person a day for each resident for only one hour.

“We can’t be undisciplined,” Illa said.
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It looked like it had been subsiding in Europe, but now it's flaring up again. I guess no one can really afford to let their guard down.
 
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