Donald Trump’s surge is all about less-educated Americans

[columbus]

How about some evidence for these claims right here? I am not arguing that more aggressive prosecution would unhelpful, I just think you are way too optimistic about the fruits of the labor, so to speak.

So, instead of responding to my point you want me to predict the future?
Tom

 

[Quetzal]

So, instead of responding to my point you want me to predict the future?
Tom

That is precisely what you did when you said those things. I am asking you to support your predictions and you simply can't do it.

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

Free markets need customers with money in their pockets.
these customers are otherwise called workers.
If people do not have paying jobs, businesses do not have customers.

many businesses export jobs, but forget that that loses them real life customers at the same time.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

In what way?
Tom

So they loose their source of cheap labor, and then replace it with robots. The price of our produce would go up. And our wages will not go up.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/artcard...erican-workers-the-answer-might-surprise-you/
According to an April 2015 symposium on the effects of illegal immigrants in the Southern Economic Journal, illegal immigrants actually raise wages for documented/native workers. Meanwhile, rules preventing illegal immigrants from getting driver’s licenses raise our car insurance premiums and E-Verify requirements raise the cost of doing business and reduce employment.

 

[Revoltingest]

OR it would just be cheaper to get robots to milk a cow.

Already happening.

 

[Revoltingest]

OH NO, come on, Tom. As tempting as it is to call on @Revoltingest for a celebrity trick shot, I want to hear it from you. You used numbers and statistics in your prediction. I want to know where you got them from. Or you can simply say you made them up. Doesn't mean any less to me.

I don't want to make any specific predictions, but if cheap illegals weren't here,
I can predict some trends in the industries where they work......
- Wages would rise.
- Automation would happen faster.
- Prices would rise.
- Unemployment would drop.
Buy my predictions aren't worth much cuz I can't say how these system responses would be weighted.

 

[Quetzal]

I don't want to make any specific predictions, but if cheap illegals weren't here,
I can predict some trends in the industries where they work......
- Wages would rise.
- Automation would happen faster.
- Prices would rise.
- Unemployment would drop.
Buy my predictions aren't worth much cuz I can't say how these system responses would be weighted.

Wouldn't automation cause unemployment to go up since unskilled labor would no longer be needed?

 

[tytlyf]

The ACA is free market. Obama was pitting the insurance corporations against themselves in a free market to price themselves to the consumer. Some corporations don't like the new rules and competition of a free market society, so they are backing out of being associated with the ACA. The healthcare.gov website is just that, a free market competition amongst corporations. My guess is the main reason is these insurance companies don't like covering people with pre-existing conditions.

Profit over people.

 

[fantome profane]

I don't want to make any specific predictions, but if cheap illegals weren't here,
I can predict some trends in the industries where they work......
- Wages would rise.
- Automation would happen faster.
- Prices would rise.
- Unemployment would drop.
Buy my predictions aren't worth much cuz I can't say how these system responses would be weighted.

If this were to happen quickly the results would still be disastrous for the economy, at least in the short run. The economy and industry need time to make such major adjustments.


Not to say I believe it would or could happen quickly, but the point is that Trumps fantasy of mass deportations and magical walls would end up hurting Americans. (Not to mention Mexicans, because we don't care about them)

 

[Revoltingest]

Wouldn't automation cause unemployment to go up since unskilled labor would no longer be needed?

Clearly, some of those trends affect others.
What isn't very predictable is the extent of each.

 

[Revoltingest]

If this were to happen quickly the results would still be disastrous for the economy, at least in the short run. The economy and industry need time to make such major adjustments.
Not to say I believe it would or could happen quickly, but the point is that Trumps fantasy of mass deportations and magical walls would end up hurting Americans. (Not to mention Mexicans, because we don't care about them)

Trump would never have his way completely or quickly.

 

[fantome profane]

Trump would never have his way completely or quickly.

I agree. But the point is to understand what it is he is fantasizing about.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

Trump would never have his way completely or quickly.

We can predict we'll hear dreams being broken should Trump be elected and he can't get a damn thing done because he's a total outsider in that world and lot's of people on both sides don't like him. Internationally, world leaders may be saying "and we thought Bush was bad" (except for the Saudi princes, I can see them and Trump making two nations even stronger allies while they fatten each other's bank accounts).

I can predict some trends in the industries where they work......
- Wages would rise.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.4284/0038-4038-2013.115/abstract
...this article finds that rising shares of undocumented workers results in higher earnings for documented workers, but by a small amount. A one percentage point increase in the share of undocumented workers in a documented worker's county/industry results in an average wage boost of 0.44%. Within the firm, a one percentage point increase in the percent of undocumented workers employed by the firm boosts wages by 0.09% (0.11, 0.12, and 0.04 in low, medium, and high skill firms, respectively). Potential explanations for a positive wage impact are discussed.

- Automation would happen faster.

Probably not faster or sooner than it already does.

- Prices would rise.

No doubt. The prices of everything, goods and services, would go up.

- Unemployment would drop.

Probably not by much. I suspect many places would not replace all lost workers and expect more out of their workers.

 

[Revoltingest]

Probably not faster or sooner than it already does.

As labor prices rise, automation becomes more attractive.
To automation advances at an unrelated pace.....I don't buy it.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

As labor prices rise, automation becomes more attractive.

The cost of the technology is also a major factor. There is already a great deal of looking into automation as it is, and it's still expensive. But once the technology becomes cheap enough to replace a human, suddenly everyone - legal, illegal, or native - is at risk for loosing their job to a machine.

 

[David1967]

The cost of the technology is also a major factor. There is already a great deal of looking into automation as it is, and it's still expensive. But once the technology becomes cheap enough to replace a human, suddenly everyone - legal, illegal, or native - is at risk for loosing their job to a machine.

Thats depressing. How much longer will humans even be necessary.

 

[Revoltingest]

The cost of the technology is also a major factor. There is already a great deal of looking into automation as it is, and it's still expensive. But once the technology becomes cheap enough to replace a human, suddenly everyone - legal, illegal, or native - is at risk for loosing their job to a machine.

No argument about that.
But as labor costs rise, the existing level of automation becomes more competitive.
Thus there is created a trend of automation increasing over what it would've been without increased labor costs.

One can always posit other variables changing things, but if they're held constant, one can see effects of changing a single variable.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

Thats depressing. How much longer will humans even be necessary.

At least until the robots can design and build improved versions of themselves.
The question is, are they dumb enough to do that?

 

[David1967]

At least until the robots can design and build improvedlk versions of themselves.
The question is, are they dumb enough to do that?

I think of the last scene in the movie A.I.Humans long gone and our highly evolved robots carrying on. Seems less like science fiction the further we go.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

I think of the last scene in the movie A.I.Humans long gone and our highly evolved robots carrying on. Seems less like science fiction the further we go.

We need to build a safeword into all robots right now, and then make REALLY sure it doesn't get in the hands of the terrorists.
*laughs*