Enough Time for Evolution?

[McBell]

Why do you really care what I believe is possible or not possible? Are some people (but not you, of course) looking for strength in numbers?

Wow.
When you dart off into left field you don't monkey around about it, do you?

 

[Shermana]

The fundamental problem is making the assumptions & quantifying them.
It's like giving a numerical result to the Drake Equation....it requires extreme hubris.

Not necessarily. We already know what the odds are of having a Royal Flush 10 times in a row. Now I just have to research some further equations, and how to factor them in exactly.

Now if I said "I think" before I said that, would it not be so hubristic?

 

[McBell]

Well if you're in such a rush, feel free to help me out by providing what you feel is an adequate equation for forms beyond peptides and for the astronomical anomalies. Otherwise, learn some patience.

Merely pointing out that you should probably stop making claims based upon math that you have not done.

 

[Revoltingest]

As I said twice, I will when I'm done researching how even more unlikely it will be for things that are higher up than mere peptides, and how to factor in the solar system coming into existence on its own, including the astronomical anomalies like Uranus having an Ammonia core and Mercury's Magnetic field and the Moon not crashing into the Earth or floating away farther than it has. As for now, the odds of 10 Royal Flushes aren't looking too bad.

We already know the probability that the Moon crashed into the Earth. It's 100%, according the widely accepted theory that the Moon is the result of a collision with a Mars sized planet. Since then, the probability has dropped to 0%. But how do you apply this info to your calculations?

 

[McBell]

Not necessarily. We already know what the odds are of having a Royal Flush 10 times in a row. Now I just have to research some further equations, and how to factor them in exactly.

Now if I said "I think" before I said that, would it not be so hubristic?

WTH do the odds of getting a royal flush ten times in row have to do with your math claims concerning evolution?

 

[Monk Of Reason]

Evolution is not impossible. The theory is right on! But I do not believe it is a working theory. Honestly my mind cannot imagine so many, various and wonderful things that are in harmony, if left to nature, just happened without a design. A blue print. A plan. Evolution has zero to do with design, blueprints and plans. Go ahead, tell me I'm wrong.

Its impossible to say there is no god hand in it. But I can say there is no evidence for it. A lack of an ability to understand something doesn't make it impossible or wrong. I also challenge that things aren't in harmony as you would suggest. Everythign is a battle and its a race to see who can survive and pass on their genes. This world has shaped out to be exactly as evolution would have predicted. Evolution has made predictions that they later found out to be ture to a T. Nothing about our world runs counter to evolution in this sense.

Though congratz on finding the theory of evolution right on!

 

[Shermana]

WTH do the odds of getting a royal flush ten times in row have to do with your math claims concerning evolution?

You should really consider reading the whole dialogue before jumping in.

 

[Revoltingest]

Not necessarily. We already know what the odds are of having a Royal Flush 10 times in a row. Now I just have to research some further equations, and how to factor them in exactly.

Now if I said "I think" before I said that, would it not be so hubristic?

The odds of card games are unrelated to abiogenesis & evolution.
Hubris is to claim what the probability is without actually doing a thorough analysis.

 

[McBell]

You should really consider reading the whole dialogue before jumping in.

Seems to me you are stalling...

 

[Shermana]

We already know the probability that the Moon crashed into the Earth. It's 100%, according the widely accepted theory that the Moon is the result of a collision with a Mars sized planet. Since then, the probability has dropped to 0%. But how do you apply this info to your calculations?

I'm talking about the probability of the Moon developing its orbital path that wouldn't allow collision.



And then there's the whole issue of why exactly Centrifugal forces allow the Earth to not crash into the sun.

 

[Monk Of Reason]

I'm talking about the probability of the Moon developing its orbital path that wouldn't allow collision.



And then there's the whole issue of why exactly Centrifugal forces allow the Earth to not crash into the sun.

that probablity is really really really really really really low if given just our solar system. However I asked you once before but you didn't respond if you knew the estimated size of our known universe and then the estimated size of the unknown universe. When you look at those numbers the vast majority of scientists think that it would be absurd to think that not only is life possible but also that we are most surely not alone in the universe.

 

[Shermana]

The odds of card games are unrelated to abiogenesis & evolution.
Hubris is to claim what the probability is without actually doing a thorough analysis.

Fair enough, but we're looking at a situation where the numbers are arbitrarily interpretable to begin with.

 

[LuisDantas]

Does no one who believes life is design free never imagine how very lucky DNA is?

It seems to impact different people in different ways.

It is of course remarkable that a molecule has the property of building replicates of itself out of available parts floating in the environment.

On the other hand, that is just it: DNA is remarkable. Its initial building may or may not have been truly accidental, but seeing how there are so very many molecules made of the same atoms, and how they do in fact react and combine and separate all the time, it is to be expected that at some point some kind of self-replicating molecule would get made out of sheer luck.

And of course, once a molecule begins to reproduce itself, even if in a flawed and unreliable way, that very reproductive process makes its presence in the environment far more likely, and successive generations of that molecule tend to acquire more stable patterns. What else could we reasonably expect to happen?

There are almost a million insect species even now. Not specimens, but species. Each of them has a great many DNA molecules. And then there are all the other living beings past and present. With a whole planet (not only the surface, but also the depths, atmosphere and oceans) for things to happen, it is not really all that surprising that things eventually happened, and that some of them acquired self-replicating patterns.

 

[Monk Of Reason]

It seems to impact different people in different ways.

It is of course remarkable that a molecule has the property of building replicates of itself out of available parts floating in the environment.

On the other hand, that is just it: DNA is remarkable. Its initial building may or may not have been truly accidental, but seeing how there are so very many molecules made of the same atoms, and how they do in fact react and combine and separate all the time, it is to be expected that at some point some kind of self-replicating molecule would get made out of sheer luck.

And of course, once a molecule begins to reproduce itself, even if in a flawed and unreliable way, that very reproductive process makes its presence in the environment far more likely, and successive generations of that molecule tend to acquire more stable patterns. What else could we reasonably expect to happen?

There are almost a million insect species even now. Not specimens, but species. Each of them has a great many DNA molecules. And then there are all the other living beings past and present. With a whole planet (not only the surface, but also the depths, atmosphere and oceans) for things to happen, it is not really all that surprising that things eventually happened, and that some of them acquired self-replicating patterns.

Just to point out that flawed replication of itself is why life and evolution works. It is a necessary component.

 

[Revoltingest]

I'm talking about the probability of the Moon developing its orbital path that wouldn't allow collision.
And then there's the whole issue of why exactly Centrifugal forces allow the Earth to not crash into the sun.

These questions/issues are not probability calculations.

One could say that the probability of my distant ancestors meeting, mating, & their progeny surviving all the tribulations of life is vanishingly small. Yet, here I am...existing with 100% probability. While it is unlikely that I would result, the odds that someone equally unlikely would result are 100%.

 

[Shermana]

that probablity is really really really really really really low if given just our solar system. However I asked you once before but you didn't respond if you knew the estimated size of our known universe and then the estimated size of the unknown universe. When you look at those numbers the vast majority of scientists think that it would be absurd to think that not only is life possible but also that we are most surely not alone in the universe.

I definitely don't think we are alone in the universe.

But I also don't think it's a matter of increasing probability as the number of chances increase. It's a matter of the same probabibility for all chances. Which means they'd be equally likely to fail.

What are the odds that if you dance the hokey pokey you'll spontaneously combust? What are the odds that one person in the world can fly by flapping his arms?

 

[outhouse]

Does no one who believes life is design free never imagine how very lucky DNA is?

Life is "design free", until you can prove otherwise.

DNA isn't lucky.

 

[Shermana]

These questions/issues are not probability calculations.

Then what are they?

 

[Monk Of Reason]

I definitely don't think we are alone in the universe.

But I also don't think it's a matter of increasing probability as the number of chances increase. It's a matter of the same probabibility for all chances. Which means they'd be equally likely to fail.

What are the odds that if you dance the hokey pokey you'll spontaneously combust? What are the odds that one person in the world can fly by flapping his arms?

Let me put it this way. If I have a million sided dice and I roll it what are the chances I get 7? 1 in a million. Its an astronomical odds. What if I only get to roll it once ever? Even worse. But what if there are 10 million people rolling that same dice? Its bound to happen on average about 7 times with those odds.

Your argument seems to be based on the fact that it is almost impossible to get 7 on the million sided dice. And yes any single individual roll is remarkably unlikely. However with the vast majority of people rolling this dice it is only logical that some will make the roll.

 

[Shermana]

By the way, the professor in that Video is Stewart Newman, PHD, professor of Cell Biology at New York Medical College.

New York Medical College