It's far above my pay grade to confirm or dispute climate models.
But looking at the simple feedback mechanism of lower solar albedo due to definite
polar ice loss, I expect change will be fast enuf to create political strife in my lifetime.
I've been recommending solutions which address AGW indirectly, while attacking
more certain problems....
- Reduce pollution by energy conservation.
- Curb population growth.
Well, it doesn't take much to make things dangerous for coastal areas. I say anywhere than is < 1m above the sea level is in constant threat, as just a really unusual year could spell disaster. (Like New Orleans after Katrina, etc.)
I always look at any possible climate change realistically -- there is not much individuals can do to curb the issue but pollutants are pretty easy to control via recovery mechanisms (if they are deployed), or just using alternatives that don't generate them. Admittedly, this is where capitalism is at odds with doing-the-right-thing many times.
As far as population growth, the problem is actually not in the west - we're facing population decreases in many areas. Until the middle east, and most of Africa even start to do some birth control it's gonna be ongoing.