Is the rate of beneficial mutations enough to account for emergence of the diversity of Life? Yes.
All evolutionary changes are based on
differential fitness caused by single mutation events over successive generations. A
single mutation event can be the alteration of a single letter in a gene (or a regulatory element of the gene) or a gene duplication or gene deletion event where an entire section of the DNA is pasted in twice (or not pasted in at all) due to a mistake in the replication process.
There is no gene where 5 simultaneous mutations are required before it becomes beneficial when the starting ancestral sequence was not.
The rate of mutation in humans is 1.2*10^(-8) per nucleotide per generation.
This has been experimentally demonstrated
Rate of de novo mutations, father’s age, and disease risk
A human genome has 3 billion base pairs or 6 billion nucleotides. Thus the number of new mutations that occur in every child is (6*10^9)*(1.2*10^-8)= 72 mutations.
Thus every human being is born with avg. of 72 mutations that did not exist in their parents.
Now consider that there are 7 billion people in the world.
So number new mutations arising at every nucleotide site in the human genome somewhere in the human population is (7*10^9)*(1.2*10^-8)=
84 new mutations per nucleotide site in the human population each generation.
The percentage of beneficial mutations is about 1% (several experimental studies. One example LINK). The percentage of harmful mutations is about 5% and the rest 94% is neutral.
Here is a nice
homework problem.
Given that each person is born with 72 mutations on average of with 1% is good, 5% is bad and 94% is neutral, what is the
probablity that a person is conceived with
1) At least one beneficial mutation and no harmful mutation?
2) A person is conceived with at least one harmful mutation and no beneficial mutation?
This number above is
before considering differential selection. Differential selection is the process by which descendants with harmful mutations are removed from the population because either
1) Due to their harmful mutation they die too early to have offsprings themselves.
2) They have less offsprings than others because of their harmful mutations.
A stark example of differential selection is the fact that
66% of all human embroyos that are conceived are aborted spontaneously. (LINK). It is near certain that these embroyos have harmful gene variants that cause them to stop growing. Thus the percentage of people who are born at all is already a self-selected group from which a significant fraction (find out how much) of the descendants who had one or more harmful mutations have been eliminated already.
Here is a concrete example of beneficial mutations cropping up in human populations today.
News Feature: Genetic mutations you want
Further, recent research has shown the sheer number of beneficial mutations that do occur in actual evolution experiments. The original idea (pre 1950-1960) of the rare-ness of beneficial mutations was simply wrong
When timing is everything
“We have a poor idea of how many things were good enough to get a start, but never got far enough to win,” Marx said. “There could easily be hundreds, or even thousands, of beneficial mutations that can occur in a population of a billion bacteria in less than a tablespoon of liquid, but we only tend to find the one eventual winner. Because of the unusual nature of this type of mutation, it became easy for us to find them, distinguish independent events that occurred in the same population, and thus understand that these mutations are more common than we thought.”
A bit of math to demonstrate this fact
If a new mutation has a selective advantage of "s" then its chance of being fixed in the population (i.e. achieving complete dominance) is 2s. So a new mutant gene with a 1% selective advantage has a possibility of 2% of getting fixed.
However every mutation has a probability of occurrence "u" per gene per generation. So if the population size is N, then the probability of occurrence of a given mutation is 2uN (as every individual has two copies of the same gene). Hence, the mutation with a selective advantage of "s" has a chance of occurring 2uN times in the population in each generation.
For large populations (humans, mice, bacteria etc.) this value is actually often greater than 1.
Let me show you how this is. In humans, the rate of mutations per DNA base pair per generation is 4*10^(-8) .
LINK
Suppose specific mutation in a base pair is giving rise to the advantageous gene variant.
Then probability that each human possesses at least one copy of that gene is 0.25* 2*4*10^-8 = 2*10^(-8). (each letter can be altered 4 ways, only one way is being considered advantageous).
There are 7*10^9 people (7 billion) on this earth.
Therefore average number of this mutation arising every generation is = [7*10^(9)]*[2*10^(-8)] = 7*2*10=
140
Now each of these 140 copies of the same advantageous mutation has the 2% chance of making it, i.e. becoming a dominant gene. Now the odds that at least one will succeed is = 1-[(0.98)^140] = 0.94...94%
Does not look so bad now does it?
So it is precisely in large populations, that an advantageous mutation has a greater chance of succeeding. In small populations, genetic drift effects may cause good mutations to get lost, but not in large ones.
Thus one can see that evolution through the emergence of beneficial mutations that get selected for is an inevitable process in biology.