OK utterly pivotal point, and exactly the one I am making.
That very slight benefits can be given lots of time to reap rewards, is the exact intuitive assumption I and many believers made/make- But think this through in your ideal ape group scenario again
If the mutation equates to .0 0 0 0 0 1% more reproduction per generation
Then in the very next generation (in the small isolated stressed group in your ideal scenario) following this original 'slightly advantageous mutation'...
these apes must on average produce at least HALF a MILLION children EACH in this single generation before we can expect even an odds-on chance of a single extra individual to be born specifically because of this specific mutation in this specific individual- and hence for 'natural selection' , hence evolution, to have made any progress whatsoever.
natural selection cannot specifically select 'potentially' beneficial genes to be saved for a rainy day - to accumulate slight benefits later on
they may be passed on at random yes, but they are not selected to be distributed in the gene pool over any slightly deleterious mutations either- in fact since non beneficial vastly outnumber beneficial mutations, there is a far greater chance that potentially problematic mutations are stored to surface later.
Using rough but more realistic figures: Most Gorillas for example have 4 or 5 offspring, 2 of which usually die. So the advantage must be a whopping17% at least, in order for the mutation to have an odds on chance of successfully increasing it's distribution in that generation, and that's the best shot the mutation will ever have, before it is diluted in the gene pool
Oh man... How to address this...
You know how humans share the majority of DNA sequencing in their bodies. Like, somewhere on the latitude of the overwhelming majority of their DNA? The same applies to gorillas. About 95% of the DNA between humans and gorillas is the same... So where as you'd be correct if there was only ever one Gorilla in existence, there in fact many gorillas. Given that MOST GORILLAS would have the same gene, or phenotype for a given thickness of fur, each time every conception of a gorilla occurs, the .000001% would apply to every new born gorilla with the same gene being passed down, until that particular gene mutates. Which is why, the entirety of gorillas in your average most produce half a million children AS A TOTAL GROUP, NOT EACH INDIVIDUAL MEMBER. So given that most gorillas have 2/3 viable children, the last known common human ancestor between gorillas and humans would be around 7 million years ago, meaning there was just roughly, 350,000 generations, and every generation almost all members of the entire population have 2/3 a generation.
Lets just saying you started with one male gorilla, and one female gorilla.
They have 2/3 children, they have 2/3 children each, they have 2/3 children each, they have 2/3 children each, for 34998 thousand more times... the gene is duplicated (and mated) with the slight potential for mutation every single copulation.
If you had a 20 sided die, and you wanted to roll a 7, you might be rolling the die for a bit before you actually hit 7. If you rolled one hundred die, your chances of getting 7 or better. If you roll one million 20 sided die, it seems very unlikely that you would never hit 7, or any given number in this formulation.
This is ignores that there may be multiple possible genetic improvements, so instead a gorilla only needing to get this one thing to improve, there are in fact, thousands of ways to improve. Some mutations are neither immediately beneficial or determinable, but maybe useful 3,000 generations later when the environment changes. Different genetic coding often creates the exact some protien, so sometimes you only need to get a 7, a 9, a 14, or a 20, in the dice scenario.
Making DNA without touching it? what are the odds that humans can write and distribute software without 'physically touching it?' Seems like the most obvious way to me
They can't. Humans write and distribute software by physically touching things. Just in case you weren't aware, your finger is pushing down keys on a keyboard, which is diverting the path of electrons through thousands of logic gates, which eventually activate the appropriate colors on a certain specific number of pixels, which are also just more electrons being shot out of screen into your eyeballs, where the nerves of your eye interpret the pattern of wavelengths to form an image in your mind...
When God is sitting down at his desk typing out the chain of every known DNA, and every known atom, I guess, does he have to manually type ACCCGGAGAGCGAGAAAGAAGCCCGAAAGCCGAGAAAAAGGCGCGCCCGAAGAAGCCGAA...?
you think there were that many humans that lived during that period!? that's way wilder than even what JWs claim for ancient populations
108,000,000,000 is the estimate for the number of humans that have EVER lived
Nobody knows for sure how many lived then, other than the human population was tiny, a matter of thousands perhaps, and yes only 10,000 generations - to double the human brain and create awareness, it's phenomenal by any measure, certainly not 'simulatable' no!
Is that what I said? No. Firstly, it's an example, and things die before they reproduce, and even their reproduction is more or less in vain when a tsunami kills everyone anyways.
Secondly, the "humans" of 200,000 didn't have half the size of a brain.
Thirdly, awareness is not something that was created overnight. Speaking of it, you are aware that all the mammals you've ever met are to some extent aware of their environments and react to it, right?
Exactly, I can simulate orbits of solar systems just fine, through simple laws of classical physics, I can simulate aerodynamics involving far more complex math
but the workings of stars are another matter, because they require far more than simple laws of physics, a long list of deeper, highly specific instructions determining exactly how they operate, what heavier elements are produced- one's necessary for life.- by complete chance I suppose!
So no I don't believe in classical physics supporting supernovas
And likewise, I don't believe the simple laws of classical evolution are an adequate model for life on Earth.
Obviously supernova can't be simulated with classical physics... the question, you can't simulate it in your software. Is that cause to not believe that supernovas occur?
Also, there highly specific instructions determining, at least, the basic conceptions of heavier elements are produced...
The most important reactions in stellar nucleosynthesis:
- Hydrogen fusing:
- Helium burning:
- Burning of heavier elements:
- Production of elements heavier than iron:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stellar_nucleosynthesis
Also, various elements can be simulated:
Granted it takes even supercomputers some few months to run it.