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Intelligent Design???

shunyadragon

shunyadragon
Premium Member
Because according to him, his view is described in that paper, including the particular question that I asked.

Since I didn't find the answer, I simply asked him to quote the portions of the article that provide the specific answer to my specific question. .....

Simply, because you fail to read peer reviewed research on your own and understand science. In a previouse post you claimed Dempski accepted the steps of mutation as cited in the peer reviewed research. The following documents otherwise as well as documents the Discovery Institutes egregious misuse of science and math. The summary introduces a well documented and cited.

From: Not a Free Lunch

Summary

The aim of Dr William Dembski's book No Free Lunch is to demonstrate that design (the action of a conscious agent) was involved in the process of biological evolution. The following critique shows that his arguments are deeply flawed and have little to contribute to science or mathematics. To fully address Dembski's arguments has required a lengthy and sometimes technical article, so this summary is provided for the benefit of readers without the time to consider the arguments in full.

Dembski has proposed a method of inference which, he claims, is a rigorous formulation of how we ordinarily recognize design. If we can show that an observed event or object has low probability of occurring under all the non-design hypotheses (explanations) we can think of, Dembski tells us to infer design. This method is purely eliminative--we are to infer design when we have rejected all the other hypotheses we can think of--and is commonly known as an argument from ignorance, or god-of-the-gaps argument.

Because god-of-the-gaps arguments are almost universally recognized by scientists and philosophers of science to be invalid as scientific inferences, Dembski goes to great length to disguise the nature of his method. For example, he inserts a middleman called specified complexity: after rejecting all the non-design hypotheses we can think of, he tells us to infer that the object in question exhibits specified complexity, and then claims that specified complexity is a reliable indicator of design.

The only biological object to which Dembski applies his method is the flagellum of the bacterium E. coli. First, he attempts to show that the flagellum could not have arisen by Darwinian evolution, appealing to a modified version of Michael Behe's argument from irreducible complexity. However Dembski's argument suffers from the same fundamental flaw as Behe's: he fails to allow for changes in the function of a biological system as it evolves.

Since Dembski's method is supposed to be based on probability and he has promised readers of his earlier work a probability calculation, he proceeds to calculate a probability for the origin of the flagellum. But this calculation is based on the assumption that the flagellum arose suddenly, as an utterly random combination of proteins. The calculation is elaborate but totally irrelevant, since no evolutionary biologist proposes that complex biological systems appeared in this way. In fact, this is the same straw man assumption frequently made by Creationists in the past, and which has been likened to a Boeing 747 being assembled by a tornado blowing through a junkyard.

This is all there is to Dembski's main argument. He then makes a secondary argument in which he attempts to show that even if complex biological systems did evolve by undirected evolution, they could have only done so if a designer had fine-tuned the fitness function or inserted complex specified information at the start of the process.

The argument from fine-tuning of fitness functions appeals to a set of mathematical theorems called the "No Free Lunch" theorems. Although these theorems are perfectly sound, they do not have the implications which Dembski attributes to them. In fact they do not apply to biological evolution at all. All that is left of Dembski's argument is then the claim that life could only have evolved if the initial conditions of the Universe and the Earth were finely tuned for that purpose. This is an old argument, usually known as the argument from cosmological (and terrestrial) fine-tuning. Dembski has added nothing new to it.

Complex specified information (CSI) is a concept of Dembski's own invention which is quite different from any form of information used by information theorists. Indeed, Dembski himself has berated his critics in the past for confusing CSI with other forms of information. This critique shows that CSI is equivocally defined and fails to characterize complex structures in the way that Dembski claims it does. On the basis of this flawed concept, he boldly proposes a new Law of Conservation of Information, which is shown here to be utterly baseless.

Dembski claims to have made major contributions to the fields of statistics, information theory and thermodynamics. Yet his work has not been accepted by any experts in those fields, and has not been published in any relevant scholarly journals.

No Free Lunch consists of a collection of tired old antievolutionist arguments: god-of-the-gaps, irreducible complexity, tornado in a junkyard, and cosmological fine-tuning. Dembski attempts to give these old arguments a new lease of life by concealing them behind veils of confusing terminology and unnecessary mathematical notation. The standard of scholarship is abysmally low, and the book is best regarded as pseudoscientific rhetoric aimed at an unwary public which may mistake Dembski's mathematical mumbo jumbo for academic erudition.
 

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
If it is a false dichotomy, he can always provide a third alternative and expose it as his answer

With respect to your question on sickle cell anemia it depends s on the circumstances, sometimes is beneficial sometimes it is negative. .... See this is how someone answers to a question clearly and unavi

As you can see from the response that others have tired of you and your tactics. Perhaps if you had not played so many games and in the past others would be willing to help you. Eventually all that happens is that people correct your errors but give up any hope on you of learning from them.
 

shunyadragon

shunyadragon
Premium Member
Because according to him, his view is described in that paper, including the particular question that I asked.

Since I didn't find the answer, I simply asked him to quote the portions of the article that provide the specific answer to my specific question. .....

The following offers more detail as what Dempski and Behe propose.

From: Not a Free Lunch

"4. Applying the Method to Nature

He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lampposts--for support rather than illumination.
Andrew Lang (1844-1912), poet and novelist

[paste:font size="4"]14 straw man, namely the probability of a biological structure occurring by purely random combination of components.

The only biological structure to which Dembski applies his method is the flagellum of the bacterium E. coli. As his method requires him to start by determining the set {Hi}of all chance hypotheses which "could have been operating to produce E [the observed outcome]" (p. 72), one might expect an explicit identification of the chance hypothesis under consideration. Dembski provides no such explicit identification, and the reader is left to infer it from the details of the calculation. Perhaps the reason Dembski failed to identify his chance hypothesis is that, when clearly named, it is so transparently a straw man. No biologist proposes that the flagellum appeared by purely random combination of proteins--they believe it evolved by natural selection--and all would agree that the probability of appearance by random combination is so minuscule that this is unsatisfying as a scientific explanation. Therefore for Dembski to provide a probability calculation based on this absurd scenario is a waste of time. There is no need to consider whether Dembski's calculation is correct, because it is totally irrelevant to the issue. Nevertheless, since Dembski does not state clearly that he has based his calculation on a hypothesis of purely random combination, I will describe the calculation briefly in order to demonstrate that this is the case.

Dembski tells us to multiply three partial probabilities to arrive at the probability of a "discrete combinatorial object":

pdco = porig × plocal × pconfig

  • plocal is the probability of a suitable collection of proteins being drawn from a set of existing proteins which includes the ones required. Dembski assumes that the proteins are randomly drawn from among the 4289 proteins coded for by E. coli's DNA, that 5 copies are needed of each of 50 different proteins (making 250 proteins altogether), and that, in each case, there are 10 different proteins that would be acceptable (i.e. there are 9 possible substitutes for the real protein. In effect, we have to make 250 draws, and at each draw we have a 500/4289 probability of picking a useful protein, giving an overall probability of (500/4289)250.
  • pconfig is the probability that, given the right collection of proteins, they will form a viable flagellum if arranged at random. Dembski aims to draw from a uniform probability distribution over all the possible ways of arranging the selected proteins:

    Strictly speaking, the configuration probability for a discrete combinatorial object that exhibits some function is the ratio of all the ways of arranging its building blocks that preserve the function divided by all the possible ways whatsoever of arranging the building blocks. [pp. 294-295]
    Since he can't calculate this directly, he uses an approximation that he calls a perturbation probability. We need not concern ourselves with the details.
  • porig is the probability of all the individual proteins forming by random combination of amino acids, and is again based on a perturbation probability.
Each of these probabilities individually is below Dembski's universal probability bound, so he does not proceed to multiply them.

Incidentally, Dembski errs in choosing to calculate a formation probability for the flagellum itself. He should have considered the formation of the DNA to code for a flagellum. If a flagellum appeared without the DNA to code for it, it would not be inherited by the next generation of bacteria, and so would be lost."
 

shunyadragon

shunyadragon
Premium Member
I am not a scientist, my expertise is in another field. Since the thread is on intelligent design, there is one area related to the thread that I have studied over the years, abiogenesis.

Did it happen ? There is a large body of evidence that leads to the conclusion it did not. To be fair, there is some evidence, extremely focused, that leads to the conclusion that there are possibilities for it.

The above is a false assertion based on a religious agenda. What are your qualifications as a scientist to reach the conclusions?
Expertise in another field does not qualify you to reach these conclusions. I am a professional geologist with a strong background in chemistry, math, biochemistry and statistics. Based on your last two posts you have a limited knowledge of science, and a horrendous misuse of terminology for science.

As extremely hesitant as many atheist evolutionists are to discuss it, evolution could never have begun without that elusive first functioning, reproducing organism.

Your view is severely tainted with the fallacy 'false equivalence.' Evolutionists cannot be equated with atheism.

I propose that without the significant evidence, conclusive evidence for the first organism as a result of the combination of likely chemicals in a likely environment whose likely characteristics are known, it could not have occurred.

Propose if you like, but your proposition is severely tainted by a religious agenda and not based on science.
Further, the atheists who believe it happened, had to have happened, are exercising great faith, and nothing more in their belief.

Atheists and Theists may 'believe' what they want to 'believe,' but neither view represents science.

Why then is their faith that life on earth was the result of random combinations of chemicals more acceptable than my faith that life is the result of a specific creation by a capable creator ?

Science does not propose that life on earth is 'the result of random combinations of chemicals.'
 
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shmogie

Well-Known Member
The above is a false assertion based on a religious agenda. What are your qualifications as a scientist to reach the conclusions?
Expertise in another field does not qualify you to reach these conclusions. I am a professional geologist with a strong background in chemistry, math, biochemistry and statistics.



Your view is severely tainted with the fallacy 'false equivalence.' Evolutionists cannot be equated with atheism.



Propose if you like, but your proposition is severely tainted by a religious agenda and not based on science.


Atheists and Theists may 'believe' what they want to 'believe,' but neither view represents science.



Science does not propose that life on earth is 'the result of random combinations of chemicals.'

¨ A false assertion¨ really ? I think I will prove in further posts, your assertion to be false.

Uh, The majority of atheists are evolutionists, but I was careful to make the distinction of atheist evolutionists, obviously inferring there were non atheist evolutionsts, which there are

Of course what I propose is based on science, no other basis would be valid.

Abiogenesis did not begin with a RANDOM combination of chemicals ? So then these chemicals came together in combination in a PLANNED manner ?

Would you prefer the terms chance or accidental ? Those work for me.

You accuse me of religious bias, fine, you may accuse, but in a court of law bias must be proven. I could just as easily accuse you of scientific bias. For something in reality to exist, like bias, it must be proven to exist, prove it.

You as a geologist are no more qualified than me to address a biological issue, so please don´t play the ¨only scientists can know¨ card on me. It is a canard, scientists publish, anyone who exercises the diligence of reading can learn scientific things.
 

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
¨ A false assertion¨ really ? I think I will prove in further posts, your assertion to be false.

Uh, The majority of atheists are evolutionists, but I was careful to make the distinction of atheist evolutionists, obviously inferring there were non atheist evolutionsts, which there are

And there are non-atheist gravitationalists too. You make a good point. One does not need to be an atheist to accept reality. And though there are some atheists that reject reality you will probably find a much higher percentage of such people among theists.

Of course what I propose is based on science, no other basis would be valid.

But it is not. And that is where the problem lies. What you propose is at best based upon an ignorance of science.

Abiogenesis did not begin with a RANDOM combination of chemicals ? So then these chemicals came together in combination in a PLANNED manner ?

Would you prefer the terms chance or accidental ? Those work for me.

And this is a false dichotomy. A poor debating technique.

You accuse me of religious bias, fine, you may accuse, but in a court of law bias must be proven. I could just as easily accuse you of scientific bias. For something in reality to exist, like bias, it must be proven to exist, prove it.

You continually demonstrate a bias, or at best an utter ignorance mixed in with prejudice. Either would get probably get you dismissed from a jury.

You as a geologist are no more qualified than me to address a biological issue, so please don´t play the ¨only scientists can know¨ card on me. It is a canard, scientists publish, anyone who exercises the diligence of reading can learn scientific things.

He has far more training in biology than you do so he is far more qualified than you are. You see qualification is not an "absolute". It is a relative measurement. But you end correctly. Anyone who exercieses the diligence of reading can learn scientific things. Like every other creationist that I have ever had a discussion with you do not appear to understand the nature of evidence. At least in the sciences. You let your bias interfere too much. You were earlier provided an excellent article on scientific evidence. Would you like to discuss that?
 

shunyadragon

shunyadragon
Premium Member
¨ A false assertion¨ really ? I think I will prove in further posts, your assertion to be false.

Uh, The majority of atheists are evolutionists, but I was careful to make the distinction of atheist evolutionists, obviously inferring there were non atheist evolutionsts, which there are,

Yes, the majority if not virtually all atheists believe in evolution, but not all evolutionists including scientists are atheists.. I am a theist, and like me many theists believe in a theistic evolution. Therefore the fallacy of false equivalency.

Of course what I propose is based on science, no other basis would be valid.
Nothing you have proposed is based on science.

Abiogenesis did not begin with a RANDOM combination of chemicals ? So then these chemicals came together in combination in a PLANNED manner ?

Neither is the case in terms of science. Abiogenesis took place based on the laws of nature in an environment suitable for abiogenesis.

Would you prefer the terms chance or accidental ? Those work for me.

Neither work for science nor I. Humans have accidents by definition, and not the outcome of cause and effect events, which occur based on the laws of nature.

You accuse me of religious bias, fine, you may accuse, but in a court of law bias must be proven. I could just as easily accuse you of scientific bias. For something in reality to exist, like bias, it must be proven to exist, prove it.

Yes you religious bias is more than obvious. and yes I am biased toward science.

The courts of law is not related to the issues of Methodological Naturalism. though scientific evidence may be used in Courts of Law.

Again, again and again . . . bad terminology, science does not prove nor disprove anything.

You as a geologist are no more qualified than me to address a biological issue, so please don´t play the ¨only scientists can know¨ card on me. It is a canard, scientists publish, anyone who exercises the diligence of reading can learn scientific things.

I have a strong background in chemistry, biochemistry, and the biology related to evolution. Yes, anyone can read scientific research, but so far you have shown a basic ignorance in even the basic terminology of science.
 
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Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
¨ A false assertion¨ really ? I think I will prove in further posts, your assertion to be false.
Abiogenesis did not begin with a RANDOM combination of chemicals ? So then these chemicals came together in combination in a PLANNED manner ?

Would you prefer the terms chance or accidental ? Those work for me.

The opposite of RANDOM is not PLANNED. It is ORDERED, or STRUCTURED.
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
Sort of, but the continuation of this logic takes science down the rabbit hole of Ontological Naturalism, which is beyond purview of Methodological Naturalism, and the false claim that science can falsify the negative.

Well, the point is that it can in certain situations.
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
Yes, I suppose so. But I think I might quibble with your example of the Michelson-Morley experiment, as I would not call that "absence of evidence" for a hypothesis. I would call that presence of evidence in favour of one of two alternative hypotheses. A positive null result is not what I would call absence of evidence, I don't think.

But let's see what Shmogie is getting at and we may be clearer.....
Except that at the time of the experiment, the only working hypothesis was the ether hypothesis. The null result was evidence of the absence of the ether, which was revolutionary.
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
So then, an unobserved, unreplicated, proposed phenomenon, based upon an unknown environment and unknown operational features must de facto be declared non existent. No evidence is evidence of non existence, correct ?
Not what I said. I said no evidence when ed evidence is expected is evidence of absense.
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
Except that at the time of the experiment, the only working hypothesis was the ether hypothesis. The null result was evidence of the absence of the ether, which was revolutionary.
But was it not suspected, due to the problems with the aether idea?
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
¨ A false assertion¨ really ? I think I will prove in further posts, your assertion to be false.

Uh, The majority of atheists are evolutionists, but I was careful to make the distinction of atheist evolutionists, obviously inferring there were non atheist evolutionsts, which there are

Of course what I propose is based on science, no other basis would be valid.

Abiogenesis did not begin with a RANDOM combination of chemicals ? So then these chemicals came together in combination in a PLANNED manner ?

Would you prefer the terms chance or accidental ? Those work for me.

You accuse me of religious bias, fine, you may accuse, but in a court of law bias must be proven. I could just as easily accuse you of scientific bias. For something in reality to exist, like bias, it must be proven to exist, prove it.

You as a geologist are no more qualified than me to address a biological issue, so please don´t play the ¨only scientists can know¨ card on me. It is a canard, scientists publish, anyone who exercises the diligence of reading can learn scientific things.
It is now unclear to me what you are trying to argue.

The people here with a science background are simply pointing out that, from the point of view of science, there is no basis for invoking a supernatural miracle to account for the origin of life.

The point of view of science is one relying on observation and predictive models based on those observations, and which seeks explanations of natural phenomena within nature itself. All thoughtful scientists, whether biologists, chemists or geologists will be aware of this. Lawyers may not be.

If you want to call the scientific approach "bias" you are obviously free to do so. I don't suppose any scientist here would disagree that if you dispense with the science "bias", by NOT restricting yourself to observations and predictive models based on them, and no longer seeking explanations of phenomena from within nature, you can come up with all sorts of ideas. They just won't be scientific ideas.
 

gnostic

The Lost One
Evolution seems like a good explanation but we are continually altering our understanding of it. We should be altering our understanding of Religion but that does not appear to be happening.

You say that evolution sounds “like a good explanation”, but you really don’t mean that all.

Clearly you have little understanding as to the basic foundation of science, as my next quote of yours will demonstrate. But let’s stick with this current quote above.

So you think evolution is “continually altering understanding of it” as if it is a bad or negative thing?

As you know Charles Darwin published his On Origin of Species in 1859, followed up by more publications, in regarding to evolution through Natural Selection.

Darwin wasn’t the only one who did his research on Natural Selection, because roughly the same time, another naturalist, Alfred Russel Wallace was working on similar biological concept.

Likewise, through the decades that followed Charles Darwin’s death, biologists have greatly improved his original theory, which is Evolution through Natural Selection, that eventually led to discoveries of other evolutionary mechanisms, like Mutation, Genetic Drift, Gene Flow and Genetic Hitchhiking.

These newer mechanisms didn’t make Natural Selection obsolete, but only reinforced the validity of Darwin’s original framework of evolution.

Do you think biologists should not advance and refine the theory over time?

You have heard of progress, Ellen, haven’t you?

Technology and engineering need to change over time,

If science doesn’t allow for change, astronomers today would be star-gazing without the telescopes. And if there were no technological advances with the telescopes, we would still be using same primitive invention that Galileo invented.

Isaac Newton wrote the theory on gravity, which have many applications, but Albert Einstein greatly improved knowledge on gravity with General Relativity, which gave astronomers greater understanding of distant stars and distant galaxies.

Altering the theory based on new evidences, modifying and improving our knowledge on evolution are just as important as improving technology on optical telescopes for astronomy.

I think that evidence of an intelligent Creator is conclusive, and not open to debate. It is religiophiles that made a religion out of it without his participation. It seems plain to me that the progression and development of life was done with purpose, and may have altered along the way. That someone was managing it seems inarguable to me. It seems to me that what is around us obeys logical physical laws and the laws of Physics, most of which are not understood.

Here is where you don’t understand the concept of what is “evidence”, because your belief in what “evidence” isn’t the same thing as used in science.

You seem to think “evidence” is related to your personal belief or personal conviction, especially when you say:

I think that evidence of an intelligent Creator is conclusive, and not open to debate.”
That’s not how scientific evidence work.

Any “hypothesis” or “theory” - I am using these terms as in the science context - have to open to debate, all theories and hypotheses are open for testing, meaning it must be falsifiable.

The falsifiable statement or falsifiable prediction that are used in hypothesis or theory are subjected for testing, tests that can either refute or verify statements and predictions.

If you cannot test the statements and predictions, then they are not falsifiable.

Creationists who don’t have education in fundamental of scientific practice (eg the whole process of Scientific Method, which include formulation of a falsifiable hypothesis, testing the hypothesis through observations (eg experiments); all of this are then subject to peer review), is that all theories and hypotheses are subjected for testing and reviews.

The theory of evolution, theory of gravity, particle theory, germ theory, etc are always open to debates, always open to review and testing.

Evidence is anything that scientists can -
  1. observe (not just seeing with eyes, but also hear or feel it) or detect it (eg using device like a multimeter to detect electricity)
  2. and what is being observed or detected, you can measure it, like my electricity, you can measure the electric voltage, power or current,
  3. or test the observation individually or against each other, like comparing the test results of each experiment,
  4. or quantify the evidences, like finding empirical independent evidences or performing the experiments x-number of times.
The last two - point 3 & 4 - are what we called repeatable and verifiable. In fact, all 4 points are evidences used either to refute or to verify. Science is all about testing the knowledge and verification, to refute the hypothesis.

The more evidences you have or the the experiments you have performed, you would quantify to determine if they “probable” or if they are “improbable”, so basically you are using statistics and probability here.

To give you example, let say a scientist perform 100 experiments, and 95 of these support his or her hypothesis (a hypothesis would include explanation and some predictions), then that mean the hypothesis is highly probable. That scientist has verified his hypothesis is true. The 5 failed test results could be device measuring might have malfunctioned and therefore give false readings.

But if most or all experiments have failed then the hypothesis is highly improbable, therefore it has been refuted and debunked.

Personally, I would throw away the refuted hypothesis in trash because I wouldn’t presented a failed hypothesis for peer review.

The peer review served a couple of vital purposes, they go over your hypothesis and test results or data (evidences) to see if there are errors in the hypothesis or experiments, if there are biases in the results or if there are cheats.

The problem with God and creation is that you cannot “observe” or detect God, you cannot “measure” God, you cannot “quantify” God and you cannot “test” God.

All of the above mean the concept of God is “unfalsifiable”.

What you have, Ellen, isn’t “evidence”. What you have is your personal faith or personal conviction in your personal belief.

Faith and conviction are not evidences, and they are certainly not conclusive.
 

gnostic

The Lost One
So, observation, and reproducability are elements of scientific evidence, as is statistical analysis.

Are there circumstances within science where the absence of evidence, is evidence ?
The absence of evidence is “no evidence”, which is no evidences for or against it.

Evidences can draw only two possible conclusion:
  1. The evidences refuted the hypothesis.
  2. Or the evidences support and verified the hypothesis to be true.
The absence of evidence would be the same as first point, ie refuting the hypothesis - meaning it isn’t science.

My answer to your question is no. Science doesn’t use the absence of evidence for its own verification.

Only positive evidences can make hypothesis or theory “science”. Negative evidences and absence of evidences refute a hypothesis or theory.
 
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leroy

Well-Known Member
As you can see from the response that others have tired of you and your tactics. Perhaps if you had not played so many games and in the past others would be willing to help you. Eventually all that happens is that people correct your errors but give up any hope on you of learning from them.

Yes, my tactic is to understand someone's view and then try to provide reasons for why I think his view is wrong.
 

leroy

Well-Known Member
The following offers more detail as what Dempski and Behe propose.

From: Not a Free Lunch

"4. Applying the Method to Nature

He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lampposts--for support rather than illumination.
Andrew Lang (1844-1912), poet and novelist

[paste:font size="4"]14 straw man, namely the probability of a biological structure occurring by purely random combination of components.

The only biological structure to which Dembski applies his method is the flagellum of the bacterium E. coli. As his method requires him to start by determining the set {Hi}of all chance hypotheses which "could have been operating to produce E [the observed outcome]" (p. 72), one might expect an explicit identification of the chance hypothesis under consideration. Dembski provides no such explicit identification, and the reader is left to infer it from the details of the calculation. Perhaps the reason Dembski failed to identify his chance hypothesis is that, when clearly named, it is so transparently a straw man. No biologist proposes that the flagellum appeared by purely random combination of proteins--they believe it evolved by natural selection--and all would agree that the probability of appearance by random combination is so minuscule that this is unsatisfying as a scientific explanation. Therefore for Dembski to provide a probability calculation based on this absurd scenario is a waste of time. There is no need to consider whether Dembski's calculation is correct, because it is totally irrelevant to the issue. Nevertheless, since Dembski does not state clearly that he has based his calculation on a hypothesis of purely random combination, I will describe the calculation briefly in order to demonstrate that this is the case.

Dembski tells us to multiply three partial probabilities to arrive at the probability of a "discrete combinatorial object":

pdco = porig × plocal × pconfig

  • plocal is the probability of a suitable collection of proteins being drawn from a set of existing proteins which includes the ones required. Dembski assumes that the proteins are randomly drawn from among the 4289 proteins coded for by E. coli's DNA, that 5 copies are needed of each of 50 different proteins (making 250 proteins altogether), and that, in each case, there are 10 different proteins that would be acceptable (i.e. there are 9 possible substitutes for the real protein. In effect, we have to make 250 draws, and at each draw we have a 500/4289 probability of picking a useful protein, giving an overall probability of (500/4289)250.
  • pconfig is the probability that, given the right collection of proteins, they will form a viable flagellum if arranged at random. Dembski aims to draw from a uniform probability distribution over all the possible ways of arranging the selected proteins:

    Strictly speaking, the configuration probability for a discrete combinatorial object that exhibits some function is the ratio of all the ways of arranging its building blocks that preserve the function divided by all the possible ways whatsoever of arranging the building blocks. [pp. 294-295]
    Since he can't calculate this directly, he uses an approximation that he calls a perturbation probability. We need not concern ourselves with the details.
  • porig is the probability of all the individual proteins forming by random combination of amino acids, and is again based on a perturbation probability.
Each of these probabilities individually is below Dembski's universal probability bound, so he does not proceed to multiply them.

Incidentally, Dembski errs in choosing to calculate a formation probability for the flagellum itself. He should have considered the formation of the DNA to code for a flagellum. If a flagellum appeared without the DNA to code for it, it would not be inherited by the next generation of bacteria, and so would be lost."
Bla bla bla, that is very interesting, but you failed to answer my question
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
But was it not suspected, due to the problems with the aether idea?

Well, the working hypothesis was that light was a vibration in the ether. Because of that, it was expected by *everyone* that the Michelson-Morley apparatus would reveal the motion of the Earth through said ether. The null finding was a significant blow to our understanding of light. This absence of evidence for the ether *was* very definitely evidence of absence.

it would be similar to finding no elephant in a room where one was expected.
 
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