It is no surprise that I am fully on Jay's side of this discussion. I do not consider Iran to be a threat at this time. However, the president of Iran is subservient to the religious leaders and he is merely a mouthpiece. He has very little "real" power without their nod of approval.
The next point is that the various intelligence agencies will bluntly admit that their intelligence gather ability is seriously hampered in Iran and the Mid-east in general. Any reports issued should be viewed with this "on the ground" reality kept in mind. In many cases, such reports will be mere supposition which is a polite way of saying "best guessing".
Further to this, I am greatly amused by the concept of Israel acquiescing to the idea of dismantling her nuclear capability as a show of "good faith". Given the realities of the tensions she has with her neighbors that would seem to be a rather imprudent route to take. I can well imagine the Arab countries surrounding Israel eagerly agreeing to ANYTHING in the knowledge that Israel was going to drop her drawers and nimbly touch her toes. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to predict the likely reaction of her "peace loving" neighbors.
Back to Iran; people have this tendency to think that Iran has only good intentions and that her dreary little president was misquoted when he suggested that Israel would “disappear from the map”. Regardless how that is accomplished, it doesn't exactly bode well for people sitting in Israel. Given the fact that Hezbully is simply an Iranian "cross-country" team "helping" the poor downtrodden Iraqi people deal with the American/British et al "oppressors", I think it reasonable to conclude that Iran has no genuine interest in neighborhood peace or global peace either. The public tends to forget that not so long ago Iran and Iraq were at each others throats in a long, indecisive and somewhat pointless war.
Another nugget that most westerners do not understand is that Iran has issued an appeal for "right thinking" people to "revert" to Islam. No doubt many of you don't know exactly what that means but I'll tell you one thing. It isn't good for us -- as the request was not given the time of day. That allows Iran to launch ANY offensive she deems fit. Some folks saw a rambling letter that did not seem to make much sense where I saw a very subtly crafted Declaration of War complete with surrender terms. Read it and weep folks. These guys are NOT kidding, and if you want to try to make a deal with these folks and end up getting bitten, I’ll be sitting here chanting, “Ayatolla you so!"