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Is Florida in Play for Democrats?

Stevicus

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
Wandering Monk said:
There are two issues on the ballot that normally increase Democratic turnout: abortion rights and marijuana legalization.

Add this to Trump/Vance xenophobic attacks on Haitians and Florida just may flip to D. There are about 100,000 Haitians who are US citizens who are eligible to vote.

Florida has 30 electoral votes.

Click to expand...

I would say Florida is definitely in play either way. Just a few percentage points in variance.
 
Evangelicalhumanist

Evangelicalhumanist

"Truth" isn't a thing...
Premium Member
It is my considered opinion that more is in play than most media are reporting. It is well known that polls rarely match the reality -- in every election since 2020 Democrats have significantly outperformed polling predictions. People behave differently when answering a hypothetical to a pollster than they do when faced with the reality of casting an actual vote -- and I think that this is going to happen in 6 weeks. I truly believe that we will see a literally last second slippage in Trump support, and with any luck, down-ballot candidates supporting him.

Thus, even if Florida doesn't flip, I'm betting that both it and Texas will be closer to Democrat wins than ever.
 
W

wellwisher

Well-Known Member
Evangelicalhumanist said:
It is my considered opinion that more is in play than most media are reporting. It is well known that polls rarely match the reality -- in every election since 2020 Democrats have significantly outperformed polling predictions. People behave differently when answering a hypothetical to a pollster than they do when faced with the reality of casting an actual vote -- and I think that this is going to happen in 6 weeks. I truly believe that we will see a literally last second slippage in Trump support, and with any luck, down-ballot candidates supporting him.

Thus, even if Florida doesn't flip, I'm betting that both it and Texas will be closer to Democrat wins than ever.
Click to expand...
History shows the opposite is the case. The DNC always polls better before the election. In 2016 polls done on Oct, had Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump by 10 points. In 2020, polls the same time in October has Biden ahead by 11 points. But on Election Day it was 1% either way. Since Trump is polling even with Harris, in 2024, this suggests a Trump landslide. My data is based on NBC New Meet the Press, which leans left. They are looking at the numbers.

Why Biden's 2020 poll lead is different from Hillary Clinton's in 2016

The cause of this large discrepancy appears to be connected to the popular vote going to the Democrats, due ot more Democrats in the USA. While the election is won by the electoral college. These polls tend to use too many Democrats, while Trump supporters, by being made to feel like a target are way under sampled, until Election Day.

This classic pooling, by having Harris and Trump close to even, should equate to a thumping by Trump. Harris, by not defining herself, has harmed her with the Independents. People smell con job and a puppet. She needs to be more forceful, like a leader and not a passive puppet whi will smile when she signs here and here. With Trump you know who is in charge. He will use others as his mortar to make America Great Again or they will be fired. The DNC, no matter the disaster, does not fire anyone, which means recycling worn tires.
 
Wandering Monk

Wandering Monk

Well-Known Member
Evangelicalhumanist said:
It is my considered opinion that more is in play than most media are reporting. It is well known that polls rarely match the reality -- in every election since 2020 Democrats have significantly outperformed polling predictions. People behave differently when answering a hypothetical to a pollster than they do when faced with the reality of casting an actual vote -- and I think that this is going to happen in 6 weeks. I truly believe that we will see a literally last second slippage in Trump support, and with any luck, down-ballot candidates supporting him.

Thus, even if Florida doesn't flip, I'm betting that both it and Texas will be closer to Democrat wins than ever.
Click to expand...
A guy who you would appreciate is Simon Rosenberg. He uses completely different metrics to predict outcomes, things like voter registration, early voting, special election results. In most of these areas, Democrats are overperforming.

Other metrics include campaign cash and the effects on down-ballot races, and number of rally events the candidates are doing.
 
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Evangelicalhumanist

Evangelicalhumanist

"Truth" isn't a thing...
Premium Member
wellwisher said:
History shows the opposite is the case. The DNC always polls better before the election. In 2016 polls done on Oct, had Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump by 10 points. In 2020, polls the same time in October has Biden ahead by 11 points. But on Election Day it was 1% either way. Since Trump is polling even with Harris, in 2024, this suggests a Trump landslide. My data is based on NBC New Meet the Press, which leans left. They are looking at the numbers.
Click to expand...
I said "since" 2020 - as in after but not including (think of the difference between "greater than" and "greater than or equal to." The mid-terms were predicted by pollsters to be a red wave -- didn't happen, not even close. Every special election after 2020, the Democrats have outperformed. This is an indicator of what people are actually thinking when they get into the polling booth.

In any case, we shall see on November 5, won't we? My betting is on Trump resorting to every means possible to toss out the election results as a means of stealing the election. After all, it wouldn't be the first time, would it?
 
Wandering Monk

Wandering Monk

Well-Known Member
Evangelicalhumanist said:
I said "since" 2020 - as in after but not including (think of the difference between "greater than" and "greater than or equal to." The mid-terms were predicted by pollsters to be a red wave -- didn't happen, not even close. Every special election after 2020, the Democrats have outperformed. This is an indicator of what people are actually thinking when they get into the polling booth.

In any case, we shall see on November 5, won't we? My betting is on Trump resorting to every means possible to toss out the election results as a means of stealing the election. After all, it wouldn't be the first time, would it?
Click to expand...
www.youtube.com

Simon Rosenberg

Writer, commentator, political analyst and strategist. Come find me on Substack at Hopium Chronicles. Daily content, live events, great community and lots of Hopium!
www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
 
Wandering Monk

Wandering Monk

Well-Known Member
Evangelicalhumanist said:
I said "since" 2020 - as in after but not including (think of the difference between "greater than" and "greater than or equal to." The mid-terms were predicted by pollsters to be a red wave -- didn't happen, not even close. Every special election after 2020, the Democrats have outperformed. This is an indicator of what people are actually thinking when they get into the polling booth.

In any case, we shall see on November 5, won't we? My betting is on Trump resorting to every means possible to toss out the election results as a means of stealing the election. After all, it wouldn't be the first time, would it?
Click to expand...
If you want to track all the shenanigans Republicans are trying to pull, here is another site that is fighting them in court: Democracy Docket

The latest is New Hampshire Governor just signed a bill that would require people to show proof of citizenship when they register to vote and to cast a ballot. Here's the gimmick: you already have to provide proof of citizenship TO REGISTER! Now you have to show your proof when you go to vote even though you have already provided that when you registered. New Hampshire has the highest proportion of students in the US. Only two forms of proof are acceptable: an original or certified copy of your birth certificate or a US passport.
 
Evangelicalhumanist

Evangelicalhumanist

"Truth" isn't a thing...
Premium Member
Wandering Monk said:
If you want to track all the shenanigans Republicans are trying to pull, here is another site that is fighting them in court: Democracy Docket

The latest is New Hampshire Governor just signed a bill that would require people to show proof of citizenship when they register to vote and to cast a ballot. Here's the gimmick: you already have to provide proof of citizenship TO REGISTER! Now you have to show your proof when you go to vote even though you have already provided that when you registered. New Hampshire has the highest proportion of students in the US. Only two forms of proof are acceptable: an original or certified copy of your birth certificate or a US passport.
Click to expand...
Yes, I've been watching this closely.

As I've said often -- Trump himself has said that if elections were completely fair and honest, Republicans would never win again. Sad that, instead of trying to win the hearts of the electorate, you turn to cheating to get your way.
 
Revoltingest

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
Evangelicalhumanist said:
In any case, we shall see on November 5, won't we? My betting is on Trump resorting to every means possible to toss out the election results as a means of stealing the election. After all, it wouldn't be the first time, would it?
Click to expand...
All Trump needs is to have Magas planted in
critical positions in state Electoral Colleges.
This is the biggest problem with the EC, ie,
the potential to be easily corrupted.
Trump had an apparatus functioning 7 states
to over-turn the 2020 election. Who knows
what steps Trump & Magas have taken to
over-throw the 2024 election?
www.newsweek.com

Full list of Trump fake electors in each state and the charges against them

Michigan has become the first state to charge GOP figures with an alleged plot to install fake election officials to wrongly declare Trump had won in 2020.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
 
Pogo

Pogo

Well-Known Member
Evangelicalhumanist said:
I said "since" 2020 - as in after but not including (think of the difference between "greater than" and "greater than or equal to." The mid-terms were predicted by pollsters to be a red wave -- didn't happen, not even close. Every special election after 2020, the Democrats have outperformed. This is an indicator of what people are actually thinking when they get into the polling booth.

In any case, we shall see on November 5, won't we? My betting is on Trump resorting to every means possible to toss out the election results as a means of stealing the election. After all, it wouldn't be the first time, would it?
Click to expand...
Expect Trump to make baseless claims even before the election that it isn't fair, not that he hasn't been already, but expect it to increase.
We can hope that it discourages some Trump voters due to their understanding it won't matter anyhow and so why vote.
 
Evangelicalhumanist

Evangelicalhumanist

"Truth" isn't a thing...
Premium Member
Pogo said:
Expect Trump to make baseless claims even before the election that it isn't fair, not that he hasn't been already, but expect it to increase.
We can hope that it discourages some Trump voters due to their understanding it won't matter anyhow and so why vote.
Click to expand...
A hit, a very palpable hit! (But don't drink the wine, okay?)
 
Copernicus

Copernicus

Industrial Strength Linguist
If Florida flips, Trump will definitely lose the election. Although the polls show that Harris is polling close to Trump, she is losing more or less in every single poll. I don't think Haitians will make any difference at all, since those who can and will vote were never likely to vote for Trump in significant numbers. Most of them were probably always going to vote for Harris. So I would love for Harris to be able to win the state, but I feel no optimism that it will happen. At best, it will be a close election in which she loses.
 
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