Is Florida in Play for Democrats?

[Wandering Monk]

There are two issues on the ballot that normally increase Democratic turnout: abortion rights and marijuana legalization.

Add this to Trump/Vance xenophobic attacks on Haitians and Florida just may flip to D. There are about 100,000 Haitians who are US citizens who are eligible to vote.

Florida has 30 electoral votes.

Haitian American voters may drop Trump - Orlando Sentinel

digitaledition.orlandosentinel.com

 

[Stevicus]

There are two issues on the ballot that normally increase Democratic turnout: abortion rights and marijuana legalization.

Add this to Trump/Vance xenophobic attacks on Haitians and Florida just may flip to D. There are about 100,000 Haitians who are US citizens who are eligible to vote.

Florida has 30 electoral votes.

Haitian American voters may drop Trump - Orlando Sentinel

digitaledition.orlandosentinel.com

I would say Florida is definitely in play either way. Just a few percentage points in variance.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

It is my considered opinion that more is in play than most media are reporting. It is well known that polls rarely match the reality -- in every election since 2020 Democrats have significantly outperformed polling predictions. People behave differently when answering a hypothetical to a pollster than they do when faced with the reality of casting an actual vote -- and I think that this is going to happen in 6 weeks. I truly believe that we will see a literally last second slippage in Trump support, and with any luck, down-ballot candidates supporting him.

Thus, even if Florida doesn't flip, I'm betting that both it and Texas will be closer to Democrat wins than ever.

 

[wellwisher]

It is my considered opinion that more is in play than most media are reporting. It is well known that polls rarely match the reality -- in every election since 2020 Democrats have significantly outperformed polling predictions. People behave differently when answering a hypothetical to a pollster than they do when faced with the reality of casting an actual vote -- and I think that this is going to happen in 6 weeks. I truly believe that we will see a literally last second slippage in Trump support, and with any luck, down-ballot candidates supporting him.

Thus, even if Florida doesn't flip, I'm betting that both it and Texas will be closer to Democrat wins than ever.

History shows the opposite is the case. The DNC always polls better before the election. In 2016 polls done on Oct, had Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump by 10 points. In 2020, polls the same time in October has Biden ahead by 11 points. But on Election Day it was 1% either way. Since Trump is polling even with Harris, in 2024, this suggests a Trump landslide. My data is based on NBC New Meet the Press, which leans left. They are looking at the numbers.

Why Biden's 2020 poll lead is different from Hillary Clinton's in 2016

The cause of this large discrepancy appears to be connected to the popular vote going to the Democrats, due ot more Democrats in the USA. While the election is won by the electoral college. These polls tend to use too many Democrats, while Trump supporters, by being made to feel like a target are way under sampled, until Election Day.

This classic pooling, by having Harris and Trump close to even, should equate to a thumping by Trump. Harris, by not defining herself, has harmed her with the Independents. People smell con job and a puppet. She needs to be more forceful, like a leader and not a passive puppet whi will smile when she signs here and here. With Trump you know who is in charge. He will use others as his mortar to make America Great Again or they will be fired. The DNC, no matter the disaster, does not fire anyone, which means recycling worn tires.

 

[Wandering Monk]

It is my considered opinion that more is in play than most media are reporting. It is well known that polls rarely match the reality -- in every election since 2020 Democrats have significantly outperformed polling predictions. People behave differently when answering a hypothetical to a pollster than they do when faced with the reality of casting an actual vote -- and I think that this is going to happen in 6 weeks. I truly believe that we will see a literally last second slippage in Trump support, and with any luck, down-ballot candidates supporting him.

Thus, even if Florida doesn't flip, I'm betting that both it and Texas will be closer to Democrat wins than ever.

A guy who you would appreciate is Simon Rosenberg. He uses completely different metrics to predict outcomes, things like voter registration, early voting, special election results. In most of these areas, Democrats are overperforming.

Other metrics include campaign cash and the effects on down-ballot races, and number of rally events the candidates are doing.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

History shows the opposite is the case. The DNC always polls better before the election. In 2016 polls done on Oct, had Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump by 10 points. In 2020, polls the same time in October has Biden ahead by 11 points. But on Election Day it was 1% either way. Since Trump is polling even with Harris, in 2024, this suggests a Trump landslide. My data is based on NBC New Meet the Press, which leans left. They are looking at the numbers.

I said "since" 2020 - as in after but not including (think of the difference between "greater than" and "greater than or equal to." The mid-terms were predicted by pollsters to be a red wave -- didn't happen, not even close. Every special election after 2020, the Democrats have outperformed. This is an indicator of what people are actually thinking when they get into the polling booth.

In any case, we shall see on November 5, won't we? My betting is on Trump resorting to every means possible to toss out the election results as a means of stealing the election. After all, it wouldn't be the first time, would it?

 

[Wandering Monk]

I said "since" 2020 - as in after but not including (think of the difference between "greater than" and "greater than or equal to." The mid-terms were predicted by pollsters to be a red wave -- didn't happen, not even close. Every special election after 2020, the Democrats have outperformed. This is an indicator of what people are actually thinking when they get into the polling booth.

In any case, we shall see on November 5, won't we? My betting is on Trump resorting to every means possible to toss out the election results as a means of stealing the election. After all, it wouldn't be the first time, would it?

Simon Rosenberg

Writer, commentator, political analyst and strategist. Come find me on Substack at Hopium Chronicles. Daily content, live events, great community and lots of Hopium!

www.youtube.com

 

[Wandering Monk]

I said "since" 2020 - as in after but not including (think of the difference between "greater than" and "greater than or equal to." The mid-terms were predicted by pollsters to be a red wave -- didn't happen, not even close. Every special election after 2020, the Democrats have outperformed. This is an indicator of what people are actually thinking when they get into the polling booth.

In any case, we shall see on November 5, won't we? My betting is on Trump resorting to every means possible to toss out the election results as a means of stealing the election. After all, it wouldn't be the first time, would it?

If you want to track all the shenanigans Republicans are trying to pull, here is another site that is fighting them in court: Democracy Docket

The latest is New Hampshire Governor just signed a bill that would require people to show proof of citizenship when they register to vote and to cast a ballot. Here's the gimmick: you already have to provide proof of citizenship TO REGISTER! Now you have to show your proof when you go to vote even though you have already provided that when you registered. New Hampshire has the highest proportion of students in the US. Only two forms of proof are acceptable: an original or certified copy of your birth certificate or a US passport.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

If you want to track all the shenanigans Republicans are trying to pull, here is another site that is fighting them in court: Democracy Docket

The latest is New Hampshire Governor just signed a bill that would require people to show proof of citizenship when they register to vote and to cast a ballot. Here's the gimmick: you already have to provide proof of citizenship TO REGISTER! Now you have to show your proof when you go to vote even though you have already provided that when you registered. New Hampshire has the highest proportion of students in the US. Only two forms of proof are acceptable: an original or certified copy of your birth certificate or a US passport.

Yes, I've been watching this closely.

As I've said often -- Trump himself has said that if elections were completely fair and honest, Republicans would never win again. Sad that, instead of trying to win the hearts of the electorate, you turn to cheating to get your way.

 

[Revoltingest]

In any case, we shall see on November 5, won't we? My betting is on Trump resorting to every means possible to toss out the election results as a means of stealing the election. After all, it wouldn't be the first time, would it?

All Trump needs is to have Magas planted in
critical positions in state Electoral Colleges.
This is the biggest problem with the EC, ie,
the potential to be easily corrupted.
Trump had an apparatus functioning 7 states
to over-turn the 2020 election. Who knows
what steps Trump & Magas have taken to
over-throw the 2024 election?

Full list of Trump fake electors in each state and the charges against them

Michigan has become the first state to charge GOP figures with an alleged plot to install fake election officials to wrongly declare Trump had won in 2020.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Revoltingest]

More failure by Democrats...
Murder is down 11.6%.

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www.cnbc.com

 

[Pogo]

I said "since" 2020 - as in after but not including (think of the difference between "greater than" and "greater than or equal to." The mid-terms were predicted by pollsters to be a red wave -- didn't happen, not even close. Every special election after 2020, the Democrats have outperformed. This is an indicator of what people are actually thinking when they get into the polling booth.

In any case, we shall see on November 5, won't we? My betting is on Trump resorting to every means possible to toss out the election results as a means of stealing the election. After all, it wouldn't be the first time, would it?

Expect Trump to make baseless claims even before the election that it isn't fair, not that he hasn't been already, but expect it to increase.
We can hope that it discourages some Trump voters due to their understanding it won't matter anyhow and so why vote.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

Expect Trump to make baseless claims even before the election that it isn't fair, not that he hasn't been already, but expect it to increase.
We can hope that it discourages some Trump voters due to their understanding it won't matter anyhow and so why vote.

A hit, a very palpable hit! (But don't drink the wine, okay?)

 

[tytlyf]

More failure by Democrats...
Murder is down 11.6%.

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www.cnbc.com

That would indicate "quality of life" has improved for Americans. The side effect of good policies

 

[Twilight Hue]

More failure by Democrats...
Murder is down 11.6%.

Loading…

www.cnbc.com

However attempted murder might be up.

 

[Copernicus]

If Florida flips, Trump will definitely lose the election. Although the polls show that Harris is polling close to Trump, she is losing more or less in every single poll. I don't think Haitians will make any difference at all, since those who can and will vote were never likely to vote for Trump in significant numbers. Most of them were probably always going to vote for Harris. So I would love for Harris to be able to win the state, but I feel no optimism that it will happen. At best, it will be a close election in which she loses.

 

[Pogo]

However attempted murder might be up.

 

[Revoltingest]

However attempted murder might be up.

Always ready to find the cloud
around a silver lining, eh.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

Always ready to find the cloud
around a silver lining, eh.

If it's even true. I can't find anything to support it, rather crime in general is down.

 

[Soandso]

However attempted murder might be up.

Can you link where you read that? That's new information for me