Yes, bad news for the Republicans
The significance of this upset victory is a little harder to discern than it would have been had the last incumbent not resigned in disgrace following a sex scandal. What we want to see is just how much the combination of Trump's chaotic presidency and an indolent Republican Congress will cost Republicans running in the fall. Some of the fall in votes for the Republican candidates in 2016 and 2018 probably reflects distaste over the scandal, which involved a married, pro-life Republican who impregnated his mistress and recommended an abortion for her.
Here are some outcomes for House special elections last year:
- Tom Price won Georgia's 6th district last November by 21%, and was then made Secretary of Health and Human Services. A special election the following June was won by the Republican candidate by 4%.
- Mike Pompeo won Kansas' 4th district beating the Democratic candidate by 31% before being named head of the CIA. In the following April, the Republican won the special election by 6%.
- Mick Mulvaney won South Carolina's 5th congressional district in 2016 by 21% before being tapped to become director of the Office of Management and Budget. Republican Ralph Norman won the special election in June by 3%
- Ryan Zinke vacated his House seat in Montana to become Secretary of the Interior, a seat which he won by a 16% margin. His successor won the same seat by a little over 6% the following May.
There was an outlier special election in Utah last November where the present incumbent got 32% of the vote compared to the 35% his predecessor collected.