I've Been Warning Y'all....Many Low Skill Jobs Will Soon Disappear

[Revoltingest]

The solution is to make another job for the displaced people.

I suspect that eventually, government will hire us all just to keep us busy.

 

[Revoltingest]

In TV's "The Expanse", it came up on the last episode that most Earthlings don't work.
They're unemployable in this technologically advanced world, & live off of welfare.
Martians look down upon them as "takers". Fascinating!

 

[beenherebeforeagain]

It's called 'serfdom.' Whether owned/employed by the rich or the government (eventually, there is no practical difference), most of the population will be serfs.

 

[Revoltingest]

It's called 'serfdom.' Whether owned/employed by the rich or the government (eventually, there is no practical difference), most of the population will be serfs.

No.
Serfs worked the land.
"Takers" do nothing useful.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

No.
Serfs worked the land.
"Takers" do nothing useful.

Sounds like a problem with Capitalism to me, to put such emphasis on production and consumption that people who are unable to participate in a technologically advanced era aren't able to make a living. It's an issue that needs to be addressed, because a post-Capitalism society is not too far off, and technology is rocketing us towards it as more and more jobs are replaced and production shifts to accommodate advances in 3D printing.

 

[Revoltingest]

Sounds like a problem with Capitalism to me, to put such emphasis on production and consumption that people who are unable to participate in a technologically advanced era aren't able to make a living. It's an issue that needs to be addressed, because a post-Capitalism society is not too far off, and technology is rocketing us towards it as more and more jobs are replaced and production shifts to accommodate advances in 3D printing.

Where's the problem?
It appears that capitalism is thriving in the economies of a-couple-centuries-in-the-future Earth,
& the "takers" are supported by a welfare system. Were they socialist, technology would obviate
the need for most to work too.
In both cases, government would either provide welfare or low technology make-work programs.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

Where's the problem?
It appears that capitalism is thriving in the economies of a-couple-centuries-in-the-future Earth,
& the "takers" are supported by a welfare system. Were they socialist, technology would obviate
the need for most to work too.
In both cases, government would either provide welfare or low technology make-work programs.

The problem is that our economy and technology are at odds with each other. In a Capitalist economy you have to have jobs. Technology, on the other hand, is quickly removing the need to have humans do many jobs. If machines are doing the work, Capitalism is will be significantly chocked as it has to have a working populace that has money to spend. With technology, we need a social paradigm shift away from the importance and emphasis on having a job. We need something else to "give us purpose/drive," because human labor isn't too far from being a liability and needless expense for most jobs. And with 3D printers, even many machines are going to find themselves going to a scrap pile, and I do sincerely believe (outside of my own political/economic views) that 3D printing is going to obliterate manufacturing as we know it, rendering even more jobs useless and needless when you don't even need a person to "insert pole A into slot A" because anyone can push a button to have nearly almost any material item fabricated by a machine. Capitalism was made for an age long dead and gone. Now we are riding a wave of technology, a wave that has forever changed the world that was known 40 years ago, and even 30 years ago, 20 years ago, and today's society even functions in a fundamentally different way than it did 10 years ago because of technology. We can either keep going full steam ahead on run on ideas that are centuries old, or we can wake up and realize we are living in the age of silicone, fiber optics, and satellite communications. The days of industry, factories, and work as we know it are coming to an end, and it is technology drawing the blade to execute these obsolete ideas.

 

[Revoltingest]

The problem is that our economy and technology are at odds with each other. In a Capitalist economy you have to have jobs. Technology, on the other hand, is quickly removing the need to have humans do many jobs. If machines are doing the work, Capitalism is will be significantly chocked as it has to have a working populace that has money to spend. With technology, we need a social paradigm shift away from the importance and emphasis on having a job. We need something else to "give us purpose/drive," because human labor isn't too far from being a liability and needless expense for most jobs. And with 3D printers, even many machines are going to find themselves going to a scrap pile, and I do sincerely believe (outside of my own political/economic views) that 3D printing is going to obliterate manufacturing as we know it, rendering even more jobs useless and needless when you don't even need a person to "insert pole A into slot A" because anyone can push a button to have nearly almost any material item fabricated by a machine. Capitalism was made for an age long dead and gone. Now we are riding a wave of technology, a wave that has forever changed the world that was known 40 years ago, and even 30 years ago, 20 years ago, and today's society even functions in a fundamentally different way than it did 10 years ago because of technology. We can either keep going full steam ahead on run on ideas that are centuries old, or we can wake up and realize we are living in the age of silicone, fiber optics, and satellite communications. The days of industry, factories, and work as we know it are coming to an end, and it is technology drawing the blade to execute these obsolete ideas.

A premise problem....
Capitalism does not require people to have jobs.
I know plenty who subsist on Social Security, Welfare, Disability & Retirement programs.
In The Expanse, the takers are supported by government.

Btw, 3D printing is not that revolutionary a tool. It makes manufacturing cheaper, but so do
many other technologies. But AI is a game changer because it eliminates the human operators.

 

[jonathan180iq]

In the news today.....
How robots will kill the 'gig economy'

Of course, many others notice that automation & smart machines will upset the apple cart.
So I get no credit for stating the obvious.
But I've been yelling about it a lot....& will continue.
I've no solution.
Anyone?

I've had several conversations lately about the value of being proactive instead of reactive, and what you're citing here is a great example of that.

Not to call the apple red too often, but this is simply a natural byproduct of the happening shift in our global economy. Like most advanced nations, we no longer focus of physical production of goods and instead focus on quality of data and speed of processes. We're an information based system, less reliant on our own production than we are on our perceived quality of life. It should come as no surprise that low-skilled jobs are a necessary victim of that shift... It sucks for that particular demographic, certainly. But it's happening and we should deal with it realistically, not by clinging desperately to dying markets. Old solutions only worked in old realities.

I think the idea of "bringing back coal" is a decent example of this.
Blacksmiths and Horse Husbanders made the same pleas when the automobile began to take over in their respective markets. We have to address these changes for what they are, offering solutions to those affected while being realistic about future prospects.

Those markets will always exist in some capacity - but they are dwindling, rapidly, and it should come as no surprise to anyone.

 

[Revoltingest]

I've had several conversations lately about the value of being proactive instead of reactive, and what you're citing here is a great example of that.

Example of which?

Not to call the apple red too often, but this is simply a natural byproduct of the happening shift in our global economy. Like most advanced nations, we no longer focus of physical production of goods and instead focus on quality of data and speed of processes. We're an information based system, less reliant on our own production than we are on our perceived quality of life. It should come as no surprise that low-skilled jobs are a necessary victim of that shift... It sucks for that particular demographic, certainly. But it's happening and we should deal with it realistically, not by clinging desperately to dying markets. Old solutions only worked in old realities.

I think the idea of "bringing back coal" is a decent example of this.
Blacksmiths and Horse Husbanders made the same pleas when the automobile began to take over in their respective markets. We have to address these changes for what they are, offering solutions to those affected while being realistic about future prospects.

Those markets will always exist in some capacity - but they are dwindling, rapidly, and it should come as no surprise to anyone.

I'd only replace "necessary" with "consequent.

 

[jonathan180iq]

Example of which?

Being proactive - recognizing what's happening and dealing with it before it becomes a scrambled emergency, which is the folly of reactionary managing.

 

[beenherebeforeagain]

No.
Serfs worked the land.
"Takers" do nothing useful.

Serfs also worked mines, pulled barges along the Volga River, cut down and sawed up logs, and many other difficult, deadly and unpleasant jobs for their owners.

I've only seen a couple of episodes of the expanse...but I expect the views expressed by characters representing the various groups/populations are generalizations that just might not be true...just like in real life...

 

[Shadow Wolf]

I know plenty who subsist on Social Security, Welfare, Disability & Retirement programs.

We have those things to address what Capitalism does not. A good number of Free Market Capitalists do not think the state should provide any of those. And if more and more people are going on welfare because jobs are becoming increasing obsolete, it is a fundamental issue that must be addressed early before the problem bursts and ruptures. Before too long, social welfare programs won't serve as a spot weld to attempt to do well enough, it will be less than a bandaid on a gashing wound. We are only living in the dawn of the Age of Technology, and we can either begin to gradually transition to the inevitable now and painlessly, or we can let a crumbling foundation collapse on us. By the end of this century, I have no doubts that the technology leaps will make the gains in just the time of my life seem pathetic and weak.

 

[Revoltingest]

Serfs also worked mines, pulled barges along the Volga River, cut down and sawed up logs, and many other difficult, deadly and unpleasant jobs for their owners.

You make it sound like a bad thing.
Mine work is horrible though....danger....foul air....dark....farting contests.

I've only seen a couple of episodes of the expanse...but I expect the views expressed by characters representing the various groups/populations are generalizations that just might not be true...just like in real life...

I find it very well written.
I especially like the gal-whose-name-I-can't-pronounce played by the deep soothing voiced Iranian actor.
Her role is particularly interesting, especially when she's negotiating damage compensation with the Martian delegation.

 

[Revoltingest]

We have those things to address what Capitalism does not. A good number of Free Market Capitalists do not think the state should provide any of those. And if more and more people are going on welfare because jobs are becoming increasing obsolete, it is a fundamental issue that must be addressed early before the problem bursts and ruptures. Before too long, social welfare programs won't serve as a spot weld to attempt to do well enough, it will be less than a bandaid on a gashing wound. We are only living in the dawn of the Age of Technology, and we can either begin to gradually transition to the inevitable now and painlessly, or we can let a crumbling foundation collapse on us. By the end of this century, I have no doubts that the technology leaps will make the gains in just the time of my life seem pathetic and weak.

Nonetheless, capitalism is compatible with the welfare state.
The former might even require the latter for political survival.
(This is where my inner libertarian seeks useful compromise.)

 

[Revoltingest]

Meet Sally, the Robot Who Makes Perfect Salads
I could use more salads.

 

[VioletVortex]

The problem is that our economy and technology are at odds with each other. In a Capitalist economy you have to have jobs. Technology, on the other hand, is quickly removing the need to have humans do many jobs. If machines are doing the work, Capitalism is will be significantly chocked as it has to have a working populace that has money to spend. With technology, we need a social paradigm shift away from the importance and emphasis on having a job. We need something else to "give us purpose/drive," because human labor isn't too far from being a liability and needless expense for most jobs. And with 3D printers, even many machines are going to find themselves going to a scrap pile, and I do sincerely believe (outside of my own political/economic views) that 3D printing is going to obliterate manufacturing as we know it, rendering even more jobs useless and needless when you don't even need a person to "insert pole A into slot A" because anyone can push a button to have nearly almost any material item fabricated by a machine. Capitalism was made for an age long dead and gone. Now we are riding a wave of technology, a wave that has forever changed the world that was known 40 years ago, and even 30 years ago, 20 years ago, and today's society even functions in a fundamentally different way than it did 10 years ago because of technology. We can either keep going full steam ahead on run on ideas that are centuries old, or we can wake up and realize we are living in the age of silicone, fiber optics, and satellite communications. The days of industry, factories, and work as we know it are coming to an end, and it is technology drawing the blade to execute these obsolete ideas.

We are reaching the point where we can't progress any further. A great deal of modern technology is worthless. All it does is render humans obsolete and takes jobs, and technology will always be inferior to man anyways. Do you really need a microwave? A dishwasher? A smartphone? No. Have you ever run into a situation were you thought to yourself "I'm glad I had a microwave right then"? Probably not. If we allow ourselves to collapse or regress, our economy, like many things will improve.

 

[metis]

Te prediction of losing low-skill jobs goes at the least back to the late 1970's, and this was also covered in detail slightly later in the book "Megatrends" by John Naisbitt.

 

[Thief]

Where's the problem?
It appears that capitalism is thriving in the economies of a-couple-centuries-in-the-future Earth,
& the "takers" are supported by a welfare system. Were they socialist, technology would obviate
the need for most to work too.
In both cases, government would either provide welfare or low technology make-work programs.

so...the gov will make jobs
that need no skill
and we, non-skilled will get paychecks from the gov.....for nothing

dude....
production will always need a hand to push the button and pull the lever

the government itself IS that low skilled land of job creation
the gov lives on paychecks the gov makes
the taxes gathered from workers pays for the nothing the government doesn't do
(pardon the double negative)
and the real negative is the national debt.....created by the gov

 

[Brickjectivity]

In the news today.....
How robots will kill the 'gig economy'

Of course, many others notice that automation & smart machines will upset the apple cart.
So I get no credit for stating the obvious.
But I've been yelling about it a lot....& will continue.
I've no solution.
Anyone?

Robots got their start in manufacturing and banking. Robots already are present at Walmart and grocery stores, doing jobs traditionally handled by friendly people. Now they are starting to replace people in fast food restaurants. If robots successfully replace drivers (which they may not but they are trying), then they could also begin to replace: weldors, framers, tile workers, hotel maids, roofers, concrete workers, janitors, convenience store staff, tailors, chefs, and maybe even hairdressers though that is never going to happen.

That's the bad news.

That's been true in the past, as workers were still useful.
(I'm interested in industrial economic & technical history.)
But this is a sea change in that many workers won't be
able to do anything which a robot couldn't do for less.
We will see a temporary surge in service sector jobs,
where bots will be slower in becoming able to deal with
complexities of interacting with humans, but this too will change.
I'm looking at a 30 year time frame for this change to become
fully evident & difficult to address.

The good news is robots can bring us back to home based industry, with people manufacturing complex items at home -- using robots -- competitively against large manufacturers. So...after lots of change, pain and tears and lost jobs there may be a time on the way where people make our own socks again and keep goats for milk, etc.