More Guns, Less Crime

[LittlePinky82]

I took last term in college for my major a criminology course and we learned about crime of course and it's mostly to summarize crime happens depending on weather, when people are gone, the location and how many people live there etc. Sorry I don't have my notes around now. If enough people are really interested I can make a post about it tomorrow.

 

[LittlePinky82]

Just a theory, but still a possibility. Maybe the gap between the haves and have-not's is getting to big, coupled with disrespect for the police because they are perceived as being protectors of the corrupt haves, is causing criminals to take chances that could end their miserable lives.

Yes this is what was discussed in my criminology class. Sometimes people do crimes because they don't see any other way of achieving their goals through the way of society and confirm with what people are expected to do like graduating high school and either getting a job or going to college to get a degree to get a job and going in that route.

 

[Autodidact]

states in the top 25 percent of household firearm ownership had firearm-related homicide rates that were 114 percent greater than states that had household firearm ownership in the bottom 25 percent.

from here.

 

[Joe_Stocks]

Hi Auto,

states in the top 25 percent of household firearm ownership had firearm-related homicide rates that were 114 percent greater than states that had household firearm ownership in the bottom 25 percent.

Isn't this really misleading? I mean, take my state of Wisconsin for example, we have one urban high crime place in Milwaukee, another semi-urban place in Madison and the rest is pretty much rural. Now, I bet that a lot of people in the rural areas of Wisconsin own guns. But the areas that they live in is not a high cime place. But their gun ownership is factored in as contributing to a higher crime or murder rate when their guns had nothing to do with crime. That is why a county by county analysis is much better. Because right now you have rural high gun ownership, low crime areas inflating your statistic because a murder occurs in Milwaukee.

 

[Autodidact]

Why am I just about sure that you didn't read the article? Here's a scientific concept to grasp: controlling for variables. So you compare rural areas to rural, and urban to urban. Sound good? et's find two urban areas, one with high gun ownership and one low, and compare their crime rates. Sound good?

 

[Joe_Stocks]

Wouldn't that mean that the high crime areas would be in rural areas? Right? Because they most likely own more guns per household than people in urban areas, thus higher crime rates should be in rural areas.

 

[Engyo]

Hi Enygo,



One thought would be to look at the crime rates of the different counties of Texas. As for Houston, one could look at the gun ownership rates of the residents of Houston. It could be that law-abiding residents of Houston are simply not choosing to own a gun for protection and thus are more vulnerable to be attacked by armed criminals.

I don't have direct stats, but I would venture that the gun ownership per resident in Houston is near equal to the state average, and probably quite a bit higher than many states who don't have near our crime rate.

My point was that there are logical arguments being thrown around, which don't seem to play out in actual practice on the ground. If we draw conclusions based on erroneous logical arguments and then act on those conclusions, we will generally cause greater problems rather than solve those originally targeted.

 

[Autodidact]

Wouldn't that mean that the high crime areas would be in rural areas? Right? Because they most likely own more guns per household than people in urban areas, thus higher crime rates should be in rural areas.

No, it doesn't. Gun ownership is just one of many factors influencing crime, obviously. The question is, does a higher level of gun ownership correlate to higher or lower crime rates, all other things being equal. So, to use a scientific approach, you want to keep the other factors constant, and just compare the one you're looking for, right? You agree? So, are you ready to compare two areas that are otherwise similar, but differ in their rate of gun ownership? If so, I nominate Toronto and Detroit, but I'm open to either two other large cities or two other rural areas, if you want to nominate them.

 

[Alceste]

When I grew up in Calgary we didn't even bother locking our door. Same in Toronto - I often didn't bother if I was only stepping out for a coffee, or breakfast, or to go to the shop. And my door opened directly onto a very busy downtown street.

I don't know about statistics, but in 30 years living in some of the "worst neighbourhoods" in Canada (ie. Main and Hastings, Vancouver) I've never experienced anything worse than bike theft. (I didn't bother locking it - my bad).

So I don't know what the statistics are, but in Canada there is no incentive at all for anyone but gangs to carry guns, and they mostly only kill each other. Very Darwinian. Weighing my total lack of fear walking around in the middle of the night anywhere in the entire country against the possibility of accidentally shooting myself or someone else, or a child finding a gun in the house, I have to say the American obsession with firearms only baffles me.

I should mention I know of only one gun-related death in my community, and it was the result of children playing with a hunting rifle they found in the house. One child shot another in the head. Also, a friend of mine was injured as a child when another child shot her in the head. (Luckily she has a thick skull).

 

[Autodidact]

Here's an amazing chart. This chart has two axes, gun ownership/household vs. gun deaths, both accidental and criminal:

(It's a Canadian study, so most of the info is for Canadian provinces.) As we see, there is a starkly dramatic correspondence between the two. It seems to me that anyone who advocates higher gun ownership is advocating for more people dying from guns. I can't see any way to twist this data. Joe, you want to give it a shot?

btw, the chart is from Miller, T. and Cohen, M. "Costs of Gunshot and Cut/Stab Wounds in the United States, with some Canadian Comparisons. " Accid Anal Prev 1997; 29 (3): 329-41.

 

[Autodidact]

Canada has roughly 1 million handguns while the United States has more than 76 million. While there are other factors affecting murder, suicide and unintentional injury rates, a comparison of data in Canada and the United States suggests that access to handguns may play a role. While the murder rate without guns in the US is roughly equivalent (1.8 times) to that of Canada, the murder rate with handguns is 14.5 times the Canadian rate.

from here.

also:
University of Chicago Professor John Lott's "More Guns Less Crime", claims that allowing civilians to carry concealed weapons reduces crime. This conclusion runs counter to the bulk of refereed research which shows a direct relationship, among developed countries, between the rate of gun ownership and firearm death. In fact, Lott's study has been widely critiqued by academics, such as Dr. Daniel Webster from the John Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research, who cited several methodological and factual flaws, and errors in the statistical models used in the analysis.

 

[Autodidact]

I haven't been able to find Toronto yet, but here's an excerpt from a speech by Senator Carl Levin (D-Michigan):

In 1997, Detroit had 354 firearm homicides. Windsor, 1,000 yards away, had only 4. Even taking into account the population difference (Windsor's population is about one-fifth of Detroit's) the comparison is still staggering.

Detroit's gun homicide rate seems to be about 10 times that of Windsor, right across the Detroit river. Could the differing rates of gun ownership have anything to do with it? It doesn't sound like increased gun ownership in Detroit deterred crime; rather it sounds like it killed a whole bunch of people. I bet some of them were kids, too. Doesn't seem to bother Joe.

 

[McBell]

FACTS TO PONDER :

(A) The number of physicians in the U.S.is 700,000.
(B) Accidental deaths caused by Physicians per year are 120,000.
(Calculation) Accidental deaths per physician is 0.171
Statistics courtesy of U.S. Dept ofHealth Human Services.

​

Now think about this:
Guns:
(A) The number of gun owners in the U.S. is 80,000,000.(Yes, that's 80 million..)
(B) The number of accidental gun deaths per year, all age groups,is
1,500.
(Calculation) The number of accidental deaths per gun owner is .000188
Statistics courtesy of FBI

So, statistically, doctors are approximately 9,000 times more dangerous than gun owners.

​

Remember, 'Guns don't kill people, doctors do.'

​

FACT: NOT EVERYONE HAS A GUN, BUT ALMOST EVERYONE HAS AT LEAST ONE DOCTOR.

Please alert your friends to this alarming threat.We must ban doctors before this gets completely out of hand!!!!!

Out of concern for the public at large,I withheld the statistics on lawyers for fear the shock would cause people to panic and seek medical attention.

SOURCE:
E-mail chain letter

 

[Joe_Stocks]

Hi enygo,

I don't have direct stats, but I would venture that the gun ownership per resident in Houston is near equal to the state average, and probably quite a bit higher than many states who don't have near our crime rate.

It would be interesting to see if there is data about who committed the crimes on Houston. Were the crimes committed by law-abiding citizens that carry a handgun after getting a permit to do so or were they committed by people who have guns illegally and have past criminal records? That is why I see a giant flaw in the argument that a state or a nation's gun ownership can be correlated to crime. You have to dig deeper and find out who is committing these crimes and in what areas and how do those people have guns.

 

[Joe_Stocks]

Hi Auto,

No, it doesn't. Gun ownership is just one of many factors influencing crime, obviously. The question is, does a higher level of gun ownership correlate to higher or lower crime rates, all other things being equal. So, to use a scientific approach, you want to keep the other factors constant, and just compare the one you're looking for, right? You agree? So, are you ready to compare two areas that are otherwise similar, but differ in their rate of gun ownership? If so, I nominate Toronto and Detroit, but I'm open to either two other large cities or two other rural areas, if you want to nominate them.

There is one giant flaw in this. How did those who have guns in Detroit come to be 'gun owners?' They are the criminals who have the guns. The argument is about law-abiding citizens owning handguns, not how criminals have guns and what they do with it. We already know what armed criminals do.

 

[Joe_Stocks]

Hi Auto,

Here's an amazing chart. This chart has two axes, gun ownership/household vs. gun deaths, both accidental and criminal:

(It's a Canadian study, so most of the info is for Canadian provinces.) As we see, there is a starkly dramatic correspondence between the two. It seems to me that anyone who advocates higher gun ownership is advocating for more people dying from guns. I can't see any way to twist this data. Joe, you want to give it a shot?

btw, the chart is from Miller, T. and Cohen, M. "Costs of Gunshot and Cut/Stab Wounds in the United States, with some Canadian Comparisons. " Accid Anal Prev 1997; 29 (3): 329-41.

I like to know how they define "households."

 

[Apex]

FACTS TO PONDER :

(A) The number of physicians in the U.S.is 700,000.
(B) Accidental deaths caused by Physicians per year are 120,000.
(Calculation) Accidental deaths per physician is 0.171
Statistics courtesy of U.S. Dept ofHealth Human Services.

​

Now think about this:
Guns:
(A) The number of gun owners in the U.S. is 80,000,000.(Yes, that's 80 million..)
(B) The number of accidental gun deaths per year, all age groups,is
1,500.
(Calculation) The number of accidental deaths per gun owner is .000188
Statistics courtesy of FBI

So, statistically, doctors are approximately 9,000 times more dangerous than gun owners.

​

Remember, 'Guns don't kill people, doctors do.'

​

FACT: NOT EVERYONE HAS A GUN, BUT ALMOST EVERYONE HAS AT LEAST ONE DOCTOR.

Please alert your friends to this alarming threat.We must ban doctors before this gets completely out of hand!!!!!

Out of concern for the public at large,I withheld the statistics on lawyers for fear the shock would cause people to panic and seek medical attention.

SOURCE:
E-mail chain letter

HOLY **** WERE ALL GOING TO DIE!
</sarcasm>

That cracked me up.

 

[Joe_Stocks]

Hi Auto,

Canada has roughly 1 million handguns while the United States has more than 76 million. While there are other factors affecting murder, suicide and unintentional injury rates, a comparison of data in Canada and the United States suggests that access to handguns may play a role. While the murder rate without guns in the US is roughly equivalent (1.8 times) to that of Canada, the murder rate with handguns is 14.5 times the Canadian rate.

from here.

also:
University of Chicago Professor John Lott's "More Guns Less Crime", claims that allowing civilians to carry concealed weapons reduces crime. This conclusion runs counter to the bulk of refereed research which shows a direct relationship, among developed countries, between the rate of gun ownership and firearm death. In fact, Lott's study has been widely critiqued by academics, such as Dr. Daniel Webster from the John Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research, who cited several methodological and factual flaws, and errors in the statistical models used in the analysis.

This suffers form the same flaw as before because you have millions of gun owners in low crime areas contributing to claim corellating gun ownership and crime.

 

[Joe_Stocks]

Hi Auto,

Detroit's gun homicide rate seems to be about 10 times that of Windsor, right across the Detroit river. Could the differing rates of gun ownership have anything to do with it? It doesn't sound like increased gun ownership in Detroit deterred crime; rather it sounds like it killed a whole bunch of people. I bet some of them were kids, too. Doesn't seem to bother Joe.

Who are the 'gun owners' in Detroit?

 

[Autodidact]

Hi enygo,



It would be interesting to see if there is data about who committed the crimes on Houston. Were the crimes committed by law-abiding citizens that carry a handgun after getting a permit to do so or were they committed by people who have guns illegally and have past criminal records? That is why I see a giant flaw in the argument that a state or a nation's gun ownership can be correlated to crime. You have to dig deeper and find out who is committing these crimes and in what areas and how do those people have guns.

Think, Joe, think hard. By definition, is a crime committed by a law-abiding citizen?

Before you decide whether there is a correlation between gun ownership and crime, here's a wild idea, let's find out. Let's look at gun ownership, and crime, and see whether they're correlated.

Unless you think there's no relationship between gun ownership and criminal gun ownership? Like do you think more American criminals or Canadian criminals own guns?