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NFL 2015: mid-season through the Super Bowl
- Thread starter Town Heretic
- Start date
Town Heretic
Temporarily out of order
Wasn't a great shock though. Thinking through common opponents I liked the Jets 24-20. If you looked at the rounded averages the score was 23-17, Buf. By my weekly adjusted ranking it was 23-20 Buf, but the Bills had been killing me so I went with the first number.
I wonder how the adjusted will hold up...changed a couple of games to line up with this. Why not? The Dallas game will bite me, but I thought the Jets would win so what do I know anyway?
Prediction based on average performance:
Buf @ Jets, 23-17
Cle @ Pit,14-26
Jac @ Bal, 13-20
Car @ Ten, 25-18
Chi @ SL, 13-22
Dal @ TB, 19-11
Det @ GB, 16-30
Mia @ Phi, 21-29
NO @ Was, 17-16
Min @ Oak, 23-21
KC @ Den, 29-32
NE @ Gia, 33-23
Arz @ Sea, 27-29
Hou @ Cin, 19-32
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Town Heretic
Temporarily out of order
Horrible day. Apparently the foot and rib injuries had him putting up ducks...but here's my problem with that...I get it. I get that a guy with an average arm needs the full throwing motion and the ability to plant or he's going to sail passes, but why is he on the field in that condition? I don't expect Peyton to see it, though by now he should, but I do expect someone to see it before the third quarter and give the team a better chance to win with someone who can actually deliver the ball.Peyton threw how many interceptions?!
These were my thoughts as well. I turned on the game in the 4th and my jaw just dropped at the score. I couldn't believe it until I read up that he was injured. Also... what happened with Green Bay?! Losing to... Detroit? Washington crushing NO? What is going on here!?
Town Heretic
Temporarily out of order
Never seen a season like this one. I had the one 14 win week and have been tanking since, at a point where I'm normally at about twelve wins. This is just...beats me like drum.These were my thoughts as well. I turned on the game in the 4th and my jaw just dropped at the score. I couldn't believe it until I read up that he was injured. Also... what happened with Green Bay?! Losing to... Detroit? Washington crushing NO? What is going on here!?
What have we learned else?
Baltimore is simply awful. Chicago is getting better on offense and SL is a streak team in need of a new coach (too much talent there for this up and down). Pittsburgh is a really good team. Can you imagine them with their offensive stars healthy? Green Bay is in crisis mode and offensively out of sync. Carolina has become a solid football team (if not as good as their record). Philly still has to find a qb. New Orleans needs a defensive overhaul, beginning with Ryan. The Vikings are good. Oakland is better than we thought going in but not ready for prime time just yet. Manning's injury plagued SB debacle may have been that first thing that goes wrong with a car before it's one thing after another. Arizona is as good as their record. So is Seattle.
Tonight? Hopefully a Bengals romp.
Town Heretic
Temporarily out of order
If I've learned anything over the past two or three miserable weeks of failure it's that this year neither numbers nor logic are to be tusted. So I'm just going to cobble a best guess and hold on for dear life...
Week 11
1. Ten @ Jac: in a game only a mother could love, the Jaguars are a 2.5 point favorite with the money laying 41/59 with the line.
Chicken Bones: I'll take a close loss to a good team over a close win against a bad one, but here we only have half that equation, as the Jags got past a woeful Baltimore, but the Titans were down double digits to Carolina...Jacksonville at home, off a win and because they have more letters in their city's name.
2. Ind @ Atl: the Falcons are a 6.5 favorite. The money has it 64/36 that Indy will spoil the fun.
Chicken Bones: The Falcons have looked so anemic on offense over the past couple of games it's hard to credit them with the margin. And it's my Colts, so I won't. Indy in the upset.
3. Den @ Chi: the early line has this one even with 56/44 split in favor of Denver finding a way to win on the road.
Chicken Bones: I think the Broncos defense is good enough to win with any help from the offense and that they'll be getting that this week. Denver with Peyton on the bench, sadly.
4. Dal @ Mia: the Cowboys, still winless without Romo, are half point favorites at Miami. The money is 58/42 in favor of that winless streak being broken on Sunday.
Chicken Bones: Common opponents? They both lost to the Pats, though Dallas gave up six fewer points. They both played the Eagles close, though Philly won and Dallas failed in OT. Most indicators would say take Miami at home. But I can't believe a team with as much talent as Dallas will drop one against an evenly matched opponent. Cowboys to break the streak.
5. Oak @ Det: the Raiders are 1 favorites over the Lions in Detroit. The money likes Oakland 65/35.
Chicken Bones: I haven't sunk low enough to take Detroit in a pick'em game. I look for the Raiders to have a great offensive game and take the win home. Which can only mean that Washington will come in at half time and beat them both.
6. SL @ Bal: how far have the Rams fallen in general estimation? Baltimore is favored to win by a point, though the money hasn't given up on St. Louis, favoring the mildest of upsets 54/46.
Chicken Bones: it's a Ravens team that couldn't beat SF or Jacksonville vs an NFL box of chocolates. I like chocolate. Let's hope I don't get a crappy center.
7. Jets @ Hou: the Bengal slaying Texans host the Jests as a 2.5 pt dog in a context the fans like 66/44 that the Jets cover.
Chicken Bones: Houston found a little offense a couple of weeks ago. Last week they surprised by shutting the Bengals offense down. The Jets played sloppy against a team they should have been up for...Houston...reasons.
8. TB @ Phi: Philly is a 5.5 favorite at home, with the split 42/59 (even if most of that action might be coming out of Philly).
Chicken Bones: Philly...because they tend to play well at home and I'm hungry.
9. Was @ Car: the mighty Redskins come to Carolina looking to upset another improbable applecart, but the Panthers are 8.5 favorites. The public likes Carolina, but isn't as crazy about the spread, with a modest 54/46 split in favor.
Chicken Bones: Superman vs whoever is playing qb for Washington now. Because how many crazy good games can the Skins have in a year? I think they hit their quota.
10. KC @ SD: the Chiefs roll into San Diego a scant 2.5 favorite following their dismantling of the Broncos. The 52/48 split suggests the betting public wasn't impressed by what happened with a hobbled Manning under center.
Chicken Bones: I really like the Chiefs in this one, which makes me suspicious...SD is coming off an 0-5 for their last five. KC has won their last two impressively, which means that either they've course corrected their season or they played Detroit and a headless Broncos. Give me the Chiefs and a plate of ribs.
11. GB @ Min: suddenly in free-fall, the previously unthinkable is in play as the Packers visit the Vikings with a pick'em line. The split has it 55/45 that Rodgers and company find a way to get back on track and beat a solid Minnesota team.
Chicken Bones: did Denver give the rest of the NFL the template for handcuffing the Pack's once potent offense or are they suffering from inconsistent line play, making their HOF qb and formerly feared rb look confused and mortal? I'm betting that. But how do you fix that in a week? Maybe you don't. . . No, you really have to. GB in a tight contest. . . maybe.
12. Cin @ Arz: Now this is easily the game of the week, as the stumbling Bengals meet the on track pride of the NFC with the Cardinals spotted a 3.5 margin of victory. The split is 65/35 that Arizona sends the cats off with their second loss.
Chicken Bones: no idea how this plays out/can't wait to see . The Bengals need it more to not become the next GB everyone is talking about, but the Cardinals want it to become the prohibitive they feel they should have been for a couple of years now if not for...yadda-yadda-yadda. Arizona
13. SF @ Sea: 13.5 That's how badly Vegas thinks Seattle can pummel visiting San Fran. And the money is almost evenly divided on whether or not they can pull it off, with a slim 52/48 saying nay and looking for the numerical upset.
Chicken Bones: remember when some people were speculating about how long Seattle would be dominant? A little longer than that 85 Bears team, but just...SF is awful. So is this line. Last time it went 20-3. Why should this be different? Seahawks
14. Buf @ NE: a really demure 7.5 line favoring the Pats tells you that a combination of inury and the play of Buffalo last week has turned Vegas about as conservative as it gets in relation to this New England team. The split is even.
Chicken Bones: potential but unlikely upset. You couldn't get it done at home, why should we believe you can hand closer on the road? Pats.
Week 11
1. Ten @ Jac: in a game only a mother could love, the Jaguars are a 2.5 point favorite with the money laying 41/59 with the line.
Chicken Bones: I'll take a close loss to a good team over a close win against a bad one, but here we only have half that equation, as the Jags got past a woeful Baltimore, but the Titans were down double digits to Carolina...Jacksonville at home, off a win and because they have more letters in their city's name.
2. Ind @ Atl: the Falcons are a 6.5 favorite. The money has it 64/36 that Indy will spoil the fun.
Chicken Bones: The Falcons have looked so anemic on offense over the past couple of games it's hard to credit them with the margin. And it's my Colts, so I won't. Indy in the upset.
3. Den @ Chi: the early line has this one even with 56/44 split in favor of Denver finding a way to win on the road.
Chicken Bones: I think the Broncos defense is good enough to win with any help from the offense and that they'll be getting that this week. Denver with Peyton on the bench, sadly.
4. Dal @ Mia: the Cowboys, still winless without Romo, are half point favorites at Miami. The money is 58/42 in favor of that winless streak being broken on Sunday.
Chicken Bones: Common opponents? They both lost to the Pats, though Dallas gave up six fewer points. They both played the Eagles close, though Philly won and Dallas failed in OT. Most indicators would say take Miami at home. But I can't believe a team with as much talent as Dallas will drop one against an evenly matched opponent. Cowboys to break the streak.
5. Oak @ Det: the Raiders are 1 favorites over the Lions in Detroit. The money likes Oakland 65/35.
Chicken Bones: I haven't sunk low enough to take Detroit in a pick'em game. I look for the Raiders to have a great offensive game and take the win home. Which can only mean that Washington will come in at half time and beat them both.
6. SL @ Bal: how far have the Rams fallen in general estimation? Baltimore is favored to win by a point, though the money hasn't given up on St. Louis, favoring the mildest of upsets 54/46.
Chicken Bones: it's a Ravens team that couldn't beat SF or Jacksonville vs an NFL box of chocolates. I like chocolate. Let's hope I don't get a crappy center.
7. Jets @ Hou: the Bengal slaying Texans host the Jests as a 2.5 pt dog in a context the fans like 66/44 that the Jets cover.
Chicken Bones: Houston found a little offense a couple of weeks ago. Last week they surprised by shutting the Bengals offense down. The Jets played sloppy against a team they should have been up for...Houston...reasons.
8. TB @ Phi: Philly is a 5.5 favorite at home, with the split 42/59 (even if most of that action might be coming out of Philly).
Chicken Bones: Philly...because they tend to play well at home and I'm hungry.
9. Was @ Car: the mighty Redskins come to Carolina looking to upset another improbable applecart, but the Panthers are 8.5 favorites. The public likes Carolina, but isn't as crazy about the spread, with a modest 54/46 split in favor.
Chicken Bones: Superman vs whoever is playing qb for Washington now. Because how many crazy good games can the Skins have in a year? I think they hit their quota.
10. KC @ SD: the Chiefs roll into San Diego a scant 2.5 favorite following their dismantling of the Broncos. The 52/48 split suggests the betting public wasn't impressed by what happened with a hobbled Manning under center.
Chicken Bones: I really like the Chiefs in this one, which makes me suspicious...SD is coming off an 0-5 for their last five. KC has won their last two impressively, which means that either they've course corrected their season or they played Detroit and a headless Broncos. Give me the Chiefs and a plate of ribs.
11. GB @ Min: suddenly in free-fall, the previously unthinkable is in play as the Packers visit the Vikings with a pick'em line. The split has it 55/45 that Rodgers and company find a way to get back on track and beat a solid Minnesota team.
Chicken Bones: did Denver give the rest of the NFL the template for handcuffing the Pack's once potent offense or are they suffering from inconsistent line play, making their HOF qb and formerly feared rb look confused and mortal? I'm betting that. But how do you fix that in a week? Maybe you don't. . . No, you really have to. GB in a tight contest. . . maybe.
12. Cin @ Arz: Now this is easily the game of the week, as the stumbling Bengals meet the on track pride of the NFC with the Cardinals spotted a 3.5 margin of victory. The split is 65/35 that Arizona sends the cats off with their second loss.
Chicken Bones: no idea how this plays out/can't wait to see . The Bengals need it more to not become the next GB everyone is talking about, but the Cardinals want it to become the prohibitive they feel they should have been for a couple of years now if not for...yadda-yadda-yadda. Arizona
13. SF @ Sea: 13.5 That's how badly Vegas thinks Seattle can pummel visiting San Fran. And the money is almost evenly divided on whether or not they can pull it off, with a slim 52/48 saying nay and looking for the numerical upset.
Chicken Bones: remember when some people were speculating about how long Seattle would be dominant? A little longer than that 85 Bears team, but just...SF is awful. So is this line. Last time it went 20-3. Why should this be different? Seahawks
14. Buf @ NE: a really demure 7.5 line favoring the Pats tells you that a combination of inury and the play of Buffalo last week has turned Vegas about as conservative as it gets in relation to this New England team. The split is even.
Chicken Bones: potential but unlikely upset. You couldn't get it done at home, why should we believe you can hand closer on the road? Pats.
Tennessee's offense reminds me of a piece of swiss cheese. Full of holes with no consistency. They only put up a touch down against Atlanta and six against the struggling Texans (Don't tell Andy). I take the kitty cats myself. Jacksonville.
Atlanta might win the game but I do not think Julio and the boys can do it by a touchdown. I look for it be just close enough. Colts.
Denver needs to ride their defense because their offense certainly isn't getting it done. I do not see Peyton coming back next week and even if he does... he has been unreliable at best. That said, I do have faith that Demaryius Thomas will pick up the offense on his shoulders and do enough damage to beat the Bears on the road. Denver
Dallas is excited and so am I. This one should be good but I think the Cowboys get it done.
Carr has been looking fantastic despite loses in the last two weeks. I think it will be easy pickins for him against a Detroit defense that has given up a lot to pass. With only one point holding them back, I think they take of business on the road. Raiders.
Nah, I think Flacco and the birdies will be fine at home. Cutler lit them up last week and I think Flacco can capitalize. Ravens.
If J.J. Watt and the boys decide to get out of bed on time this week, they will have a field day against the Jets. My concern, however, rests in the Houston offense. It just isn't there. Town takes the Texans, this owl, on the other hand, likes the Jets!
I will agree with you here, Winston has been looking shaky and had a heck of a time with Dallas. I do not see it improving here. Eagles
8.5 is a lot to over come, but I do not see the Washington secondary putting up much of a fight, especially on the road. Panthers go 10-0 this week.
Rivers has let me down ever week I pick him... I don't learn. Chargers!
Great news for me. Aaron is still putting up very nice fantasy numbers! The big question mark is can the offensive line protect Rodgers long enough for the receivers to get open. It is going to be close, but Green Bay finds a way.
Arizona? Really? You're on! Bengals!
Good night, 13 points?!
My concern isn't that Seattle will win, but that is a heck of a margin. Luckily for them, the 49ers are just terrible. Seahawks.Edelman is out until probably the playoffs. That will hurt the offense a bit but Amendola demonstrated he is ready for the job. I think Brady gets it done by 10. New England.
Town Heretic
Temporarily out of order
Made my final picks on ESPN today.
I'm changing my GB pick. I'll take the Vikings in a close one.
So, we differ on four games: Jets @ Hou, KC @ SD, GB @ Min, and Cin @ Arz.
I'm changing my GB pick. I'll take the Vikings in a close one.
So, we differ on four games: Jets @ Hou, KC @ SD, GB @ Min, and Cin @ Arz.
Might be a wise change, but I will stick my guns with GB!
Town Heretic
Temporarily out of order
Hot-dang, to paraphrase the Bard. I'm 8-1 going into the afternoon. Philly and Tampa...never surprised when Sanchez leads a team to a loss and Winston played remarkably well in what's looking like it will be a pretty decent rookie year.
Eeek...I took Jacksonville against the line, and then also rolled Jacksonville against the line into Minnesota over GB.
C'mon VIKINGS. Not the fastest start, but I'm hoping they choke the life out of GB in the second half.
C'mon VIKINGS. Not the fastest start, but I'm hoping they choke the life out of GB in the second half.
Town Heretic
Temporarily out of order
Well, watching the Vikings defense I'd have to say some sort of choking was involved...darn Vikings.
Yep. Why would I bet against Rodgers in a clutch game? Bah...too many docos on the Purple People Eaters
sips coffee...
Go Green Bay, let's see... San Diego...
sips...
BY HOW MUCH!?
I figure part of the team have moved.
Well... guess I need to end my bromance with Philip Rivers.