October 31, 2024 - The stock market sputters

[Watchmen]

Fueled by discouraging reports from the mega-tech companies, the US markets sputtered today, losing much of what they had gained throughout the month. In other words, while the month was looking good and helping Harris, query whether this major sputter is going to trip up the Vice President's campaign.

 

[Wirey]

At this point, what percentage of the population in the US do you think will change their vote based on anything smaller than an alien invasion, or the return of Mohammed? The vote is cast in almost everyone's mind.

 

[shunyadragon]

Fueled by discouraging reports from the mega-tech companies, the US markets sputtered today, losing much of what they had gained throughout the month. In other words, while the month was looking good and helping Harris, query whether this major sputter is going to trip up the Vice President's campaign.

So what?!?!?! The Stock Market is the playground of rich and corporate, and not remotely a significant issue in elections.

 

[Watchmen]

At this point, what percentage of the population in the US do you think will change their vote based on anything smaller than an alien invasion, or the return of Mohammed? The vote is cast in almost everyone's mind.

I'd estimate at most 5% out there who haven't made up their minds, which in an election this close could make a world of difference.

 

[Watchmen]

So what?!?!?! The Stock Market is the playground of rich and corporate, and not remotely a significant issue in elections.

You clearly don't understand the impact the economy has on elections.

 

[The Hammer]

You clearly don't understand the impact the economy has on elections.

And stocks seem a terribly unreliable predictor of a healthy economy.

 

[Watchmen]

And stocks seem a terribly unreliable predictor of a healthy economy.

Wrong. The market has accurately predicted 83% of the elections the past century.

This Stock Market Stat Has Predicted 83% of Presidential Elections in the Past Century

Stocks have a strong record of predicting whether the incumbent will win.

money.com

 

[Twilight Hue]

And stocks seem a terribly unreliable predictor of a healthy economy.

Agreed. I'm far more concerned with GDP then the stock market.

 

[sayak83]

Agreed. I'm far more concerned with GDP then the stock market.

Then you should be overjoyed with the superb GDP growth rates overseen by the current administration at 2.8%.
US Enjoys, for Now, a Faster Speed Limit for Growth

 

[Regiomontanus]

Agreed. I'm far more concerned with GDP then the stock market.

Please, everyone, stop with GDP. It tells us nothing about the *well being of the people.*

GDP Is Not a Measure of Human Well-Being

GDP was not designed to assess welfare or the well being of citizens. It was designed to measure production capacity and economic growth. Yet policymakers and economists often treat GDP as an all-encompassing unit to signify a nation’s development, combining its economic prosperity and societal...

hbr.org

For example, if everything remained the same from one quarter to the next except that there were more divorces (hence lawyers make out well), an increase in alcoholism (distillers and treatment centers make more money) and an increase is the number of teenagers smoking cigarettes (big tobacco makes more money) - the GDP would go up.

Would that be a good thing?

'Growth' is killing the planet. We need to focus on quality of life, not the amount of stuff being bought/consumed. IMHO

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

Fueled by discouraging reports from the mega-tech companies, the US markets sputtered today, losing much of what they had gained throughout the month. In other words, while the month was looking good and helping Harris, query whether this major sputter is going to trip up the Vice President's campaign.

You might do a little research on where the markets are today compared to a year ago today, and to January 20, 2021. The plain fact is that over both terms, they are far better than the long-term average, although I don't care to do the work.

And by the way, when that has been true, the White House party hasn't lost a general election in 80 years.

 

[Watchmen]

You might do a little research on where the markets are today compared to a year ago today, and to January 20, 2021. The plain fact is that over both terms, they are far better than the long-term average, although I don't care to do the work.

And by the way, when that has been true, the White House party hasn't lost a general election in 80 years.

Oh I know. We had gains in August and September, and October was basically a wash (it's typically the last three months before the election, not the entire year, that is the indicator). I just raised the sputtering on a Thursday before an election and was wondering what folks thought. If the stock market prediction is true, then Harris is the next president.

 

[shunyadragon]

You clearly don't understand the impact the economy has on elections.

I did not make any reference to the economy. The up and down fluctuations of the Stock Market on a weekly or monthly basis have no relationship to the economy.

 

[F1fan]

Wrong. The market has accurately predicted 83% of the elections the past century.

This Stock Market Stat Has Predicted 83% of Presidential Elections in the Past Century

Stocks have a strong record of predicting whether the incumbent will win.

money.com

It's at 42,000. Four years ago it was ar 21,000, when Trump was fired. My trust fund has doubled. Retirement funds are doing great, too. Looks like a Harris win.

 

[Watchmen]

It's at 42,000. Four years ago it was ar 21,000, when Trump was fired. My trust fund has doubled. Retirement funds are doing great, too. Looks like a Harris win.

Correct. But it's typically the last three months that are the indicator, not the last four years (and, in any event, the last three months have seen growth so that projects a Harris win).

 

[Watchmen]

I did not make any reference to the economy. The up and down fluctuations of the Stock Market on a weekly or monthly basis have no relationship to the economy.

The performance of the stock market in August through October has predicted 83% of presidential elections in the past century.

 

[shunyadragon]

The performance of the stock market in August through October has predicted 83% of presidential elections in the past century.

Need a references, because your original post cited only one month and when you describe Stock Market Figures over a long period of time your complicating the economic influence including elections that followed extreme Stock Market drops.

Note from your source: "However, in any given year, market conditions, investor sentiment and economic factors can vary widely. Therefore, historical performance — while providing context — is not the best indicator of how the S&P 500 will perform on a year-by-year or month-by-month basis."

 

[esmith]

So what?!?!?! The Stock Market is the playground of rich and corporate, and not remotely a significant issue in elections.

except for those of who are working or have retired that have 401K's

 

[Kathryn]

except for those of who are working or have retired that have 401K's

Right like me and I am neither rich nor corporate.

 

[shunyadragon]

except for those of who are working or have retired that have 401K's

This is one month data you cited and does not reflect the long term Stock Market that may effect 401K balances,