Presidential Predictions

[The Voice of Reason]

My intention for this thread is for each of us to make predictions on the outcome of the upcoming Presidential Election, and give a short statement about what effects that will have on our nation. I'll begin with -

I predict that Bush will win the election in an extremely close race (though I am strongly in the Kerry camp).

I think it will have the following long term effect:
At the end of Bush's second term, the country will be so disgusted with what has transpired that no Republican will hold the office of President for the following 20 years. My reasoning is this - American politics seem to run in cycles. In my lifetime, that appears to be about a 20 year cycle.
From World War II to the early 60's we had a very conservative society (by todays' standards) that didn't even consider questioning authority.
In the 60's, we saw a swing from conservative values to the more open society that spawned the sexual revolution, etc.
In the 80's, we saw the pendulum swing back to conservativism with the growth of the religious right and the "Contract On America" (how ominous that proved to be).
We are now in the 2000's and I believe the pendulum will reverse its course and start back toward a more open society that embraces differences, rather than being divisive.
And my conclusion is that if Bush is re-elected to another 4 year term, America will have had it's fill of the "compassionate conservatives" that will have had the reins in their hands.

Let's hear those predictions (and the reasons behind them).
TVOR

 

[skills101]

I'm a big Kerry guy, but I don't think he's gonna win. A lot of people just really don't know the issues. Too many people just go on one problem, like abortion. Anyway, will Bush win by a landslide? No. I'm just paying big attention to these battleground states.

 

[The Voice of Reason]

I'm with you skills, but I'm curious - do you see any long term effect coming from that result, or do you see it as a new slate every 4 years?

TVOR

 

[jewscout]

I don't like Kerry and i don't like Bush. I think this week's episode of South Park captured my feelings on it>>Stan, "They're making me choose between a big douche and turd sandwich."
But i think Bush will win because this country is so focused on the war on terror right now. I know people always bring up "it's the economy stupid" but i really think that this on going war on terror will be the ultimate deciding factor and we all KNOW what Bush will do in case of a terrorist attack but i think people are worried cause they don't have a figgin clue as to what Kerry will really do.
Somebody in my political philosophy class hit the nail on the head. It was right after 9/11 and he said, "Say what you want about George W. Bush, like him or not, Texans don't take no sh!t from foreigners."
Now if we get attacked in the next few days before the election i think Bush would win in a landslide. America is traditionaly a conservative nation and when we get a black eye we don't turn tail we want someone to kick some butt and we know Bush will do it.

For those wondering i'm not a Bush supporter at all.

 

[Sunstone]

Jewscout has a good point. 9/11 made Bush a viable candidate in this election. If it hadn't been for the terroist attacks, he would be more widely seen as a mediocre president -- or even as a dismal failure.

 

[The Voice of Reason]

OOH!! OOH!! I'll take this one!!! I'll go with dismal failure.

TVOR

 

[Sunstone]

OOH!! OOH!! I'll take this one!!! I'll go with dismal failure.

Mediocre or dismal failure? It's a tough choice. One that the historians will be debating for years. I heard on NPR the other day that the majority of professional historians are comparing Bush to some of the worse presidents in U.S. history.

 

[The Voice of Reason]

I think that it is safe to say that 30 years from now, the only people that look back at this time with fondness will be people that are dyed-in-the-wool Republicans (the kind that would vote for Mussolini, as long as he was running on the Republican ticket).

Funny thing, I'm looking back at my voting record (Presidential only), and I have to say that I have voted more often for the Republican candidate than the Democrat. That will not be the case this year, however.

TVOR

 

[linwood]

Kerry wins..by a decent margin.

People are far more p*ssed off than y`all think they are.

 

[Sunstone]

Kerry wins..by a decent margin.

People are far more p*ssed off than y`all think they are.

Linwood, I devoutly hope you're right.

 

[YawgmothsAvatar]

It's obviously going to be close. So close that I honestly don't think that it will matter who gets the most votes, just who has more plane loads of lawyers ready to contest any viable outcome.

 

[Runt]

I REALLY hope Kerry will win. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that he won't, and this freaks me out quite a bit. Bush has corrupted so much in so little time, and I am terrified of what he will do during during a second term. I don't really like to think of what will happen if he wins, but I have to, because it very well may be a reality we face soon. I think he will pursue his war against terrorism, only this time, feeling overconfident about his victory, he will pursue bigger targets and get us into even stickier situations. I think he will continue to advise that we virtually ignore the UN. I think he will try to push a draft through, which could very well have a direct effect on my life, since it looks like the drafts being suggested not only draft women, but don't allow people still in college to finish college before going (unless they are seniors). I think he will continue trying to take away basic rights, and I think very soon now people may actually start getting in trouble for publishing anti-Bush or anti-Bush's-policies articles or other media.

Yup, I REALLY hope he doesn't win... but like I said, I think he might.

 

[Watcher]

As much as I too hope that Kerry wins, I doubt it will happen. There are just to many ignorant people who have no clue about any of their policies! So many people are just conscerned with whether they are a Republican or a Democrat. My guess that Bush will stay in office, the war in Iraq will definatly go on. Maybe he'll try and revive the Space Program a little bit in the eyes of Americans to get their attention away from Iraq.

No! No!! I can see it now!!!! November 2nd----A come from behind victory by Nadar!

 

[Feathers in Hair]

I'm really hoping Kerry will win, not because I particularly agree with him on anything, but (as so many others have said) I really don't want Bush back. (Which is not to say that I haven't met Bush supporters who aren't wonderful, enlightened individuals, and I wouldn't want to infer that I think otherwise about anyone.) I'm scared that we'll have another 2000-type 'mistake,' and that'll affect the results, though. Or, that the political parties are waiting to pull something out of their sleeves until the last minute and depend on tempers flaring to get votes. *shivers*

 

[retrorich]

As much as I want George Bush to lose the election, I am afraid he will win because of solid voting from the following groups:

Christians--especially "born again" Christians and Catholics (Catholic Bishops have proclaimed that voting for Kerry would be a sin, and Kerry has (or will be) excommunicated;

Aflluent people who believe it is OK to give the wealthy huge tax breaks while bleeding the middle class dry;

People who mistakenly believe it is dangerous to change Presidents during a war. (In this case, it is dangerous to NOT change presidents.)

I am afraid these people will ignore:

The fact that Bush's unjustifiable invasion of Iraq has cost millions of innocent lives and billions of dollars that could have been used for better purposes;

The fact that Bush allowed Bin Laden, the real person behind the 9/11 attacks, to escape by sending US troups to Iraq to chase Saddam and search for weapons that did not exist, instead of to Afghanistan, where they were badly needed;

The fact that Bush has allowed the US economy to tumble, resulting in widespread unemployment, bankruptcies and losses of homes;

The fact that Bush advocates corrupting the Constitution of the United States in order to promote his homophobic prejudices.


The only hope for Kerry to win rests with:

Young voters whose minds are still open and who refuse to be bullied by the churches;

The unemployed and their families;

Senior citizens (including me) who realizes that Bush and the Republicans offer no national health care plan to help them pay for the prescription medications and health care they require, but cannot afford;

Those who realize that George Bush caused the Iraq war at the expense of U.S. security and is clearly not the man to clear up the Iraq mess or tighten US security.

 

[Engyo]

All -

The other day I heard an NPR report which provides an all-purpose
excuse if the election doesn't go the way you want.

"Voters with Dementia"
Audio Link

http://www.npr.org/rundowns/segment.php?wfId=4130503

4.5 million Americans this year have Alzheimer's or some other form
of dementia but are still eligible to vote.

In this election of razor-thin margins, that should be enough of a
vote count to take the blame for almost any election results you don't like (at
least on the national level).

 

[YawgmothsAvatar]

No! No!! I can see it now!!!! November 2nd----A come from behind victory by Nadar!

That would be so gratifying. I can imagine headlines: 'American Voters Sick of Choosing Between Two Evils, Accidently Elect Green Party'

Then in smaller type below it: '"We didn't think that he would actually go to office!" cry shocked voters.'

 

[huajiro]

Unfortunately I think Bush will win.

Long term effects:

We will have to deal with bad quotes like this for another 4 years:

"People that are really very weird can get into sensitive positions and have a tremendous impact on history."
...George W. Bush
"I stand by all the misstatements that I've made."
...George W. Bush to Sam Donaldson, 8/17/93

"We have a firm commitment to NATO, we are a part of NATO. We have a firm commitment to Europe. We are a part of Europe."
...George W. Bush

"I am not part of the problem. I am a Republican"
...George W. Bush

"A low voter turnout is an indication of fewer people going to the polls."
...George W. Bush

"We are ready for any unforeseen event that may or may not occur."
...George W. Bush 9/22/97

"For NASA, space is still a high priority."
...George W. Bush, 9/5/93

"Quite frankly, teachers are the only profession that teach our children."
...George W. Bush, 9/18/95

"The American people would not want to know of any misquotes that George Bush may or may not make."
...George W. Bush

"We're all capable of mistakes, but I do not care to enlighten you on the mistakes we may or may not have made."
...Governor George W. Bush

"It isn't pollution that's harming the environment. It's the impurities in our air and water that are doing it."
...George W. Bush

"[It's] time for the human race to enter the solar system."
...George W. Bush

 

[Jaymes]

To be fair, some of those are quotes by Dan Quayle... only he rivals Bush's stupidity, in my mind.

 

[Sunstone]

I predict Kerry will win the popular vote. I wonder whether he'll win the election, though.