Though I find Trump and his minions both repulsive and dangerous, I also am endlessly fascinated by them. They are a mystery to me. What happened to Americans? They weren't always so morally compromised. There was a time not long ago where Trump would have no chance of becoming the party's candidate or of winning an election based in any number of things he's done beginning with the comment about being able to molest women with impunity. Refusing to transition over to Biden would have been the end of him. Inciting an insurrection, too. Or becoming a convicted felon.
But not anymore. That's all OK with you, the rest of MAGA, and with white evangelicals. What happened?
You probably meant father. It's Eric and Don, Jr. that are the sons of a convicted felon.
It's bad optics for Trump to be sitting in a jail or prison on election day, not for him to have been sent there for his felonies.
I'm going out on a limb here and predicting that Merchan sends Trump to one or the other through the election and possibly for years beyond. Why? For the same reason he issued the gag order, which will expire upon sentencing - Trump is a clear and present danger to many people what with his stochastic terrorism, his lack of contrition, and his vow to get revenge. What better way to extend the gag but to send Trump to slam the day it expires?
Merchan is duty-bound to consider what Trump will do with his freedom if the judge lets him go home. He has a duty to protect the public. That's what the legal system is for. That's what the gag order was for. And with the future of the three other indictments in doubt, this may be the legal system's only chance to incarcerate Trump.
Does Merchan really have a choice there? I think he needs to give Trump a sentence in years, not months.
And that is easier to do because Merchan didn't put him in jail for violating the gag orders. Instead, he told Trump, “I’ll find you in criminal contempt for the tenth time. It appears that the $1,000 fines are not serving as a deterrent. Therefore, going forward, this court will have to consider a jail sanction. Mr. Trump, it’s important to understand the last thing I want to do is put you in jail. You are the former president of the United States, and possibly the next one as well.” So now, if Merchan throws Trump in the clink, it will be in a "I didn't want to have to do that, but I did have to" kind of way.
Merchan knows that Trump could win back the presidency in November. Merchan further knows that Trump clearly has an appetite for crime and unlimited contempt for the law. Trump's potential to harm society has always been considerable. With the presidency’s official duties now immune from prosecution, Trump’s potential for lawlessness could become unlimited.
Merchan has been handed a rare opportunity to do what nobody else can do. I hope he takes it and removes that monster from the streets. Of course, Trump and MAGA will almost certainly be trying to kill him and his daughter for it if he does. They may need witness protection, or to fake their deaths.
So I'm anxious to see how apt this analysis is. It could be way off, but it also might be pretty much what happens.
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And don't believe the CNN poll putting Trump ahead by 6%. It's an outlier. The race is a toss-up now with Biden enjoying a slight lead within the error of margin when one considers a cross-section of polls. And that likely means that Biden is further ahead with people that will actually vote than these polls imply. For whatever reason, polls have been underestimating how well Democratic candidates would do in elections since 2020.
The debate didn't help Trump or hurt Biden. It was a missed opportunity, not a setback. And Biden is massively outfundraising Trump since the debate much from small and first-time donors. And he has a commanding lead among black and young voters. I really shouldn't tell you. It's obviously an advantage to have potential Republican voters think that their candidate will win even if they don't vote and potential Democratic voters thinking the opposite about Biden, so these bogus polls are actually helpful.
