So will they or won't they? (Russia/Ukraine)

[Stevicus]

Biden and Putin speak; U.S. pulls embassy staff, military trainers from Ukraine | Reuters

Putin said nothing on Macron call to indicate invasion: French official | Reuters

I've seen numerous headlines where they're saying a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent, but according to a French official, Putin's call to Macron didn't indicate invasion. The US and other countries are warning their citizens to leave Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Russians are saying they chased off a US submarine from their territorial waters: Russia chases off U.S. submarine from its far east waters, Moscow says (msn.com)

The U.S. thinks the Russians might be planning some kind of "false flag" as a pretext to justify invasion, but the eyes of the world are on this situation right now, the Russians may decide to hold off and wait. That is, if they were ever planning any invasion at all.

 

[Estro Felino]

Our Minister of Foreign Affairs has made a public announce saying to all Italians staying in Ukraine to leave it immediately. And to return home.

 

[Estro Felino]

The U.S. thinks the Russians might be planning some kind of "false flag" as a pretext to justify invasion, but the eyes of the world are on this situation right now, the Russians may decide to hold off and wait. That is, if they were ever planning any invasion at all.

The bull that calls the donkey horned.
The US accuses Russia of what it has always done.

 

[sun rise]

Going by the Cuban Missile Crisis, I'd bet there won't be a full scale invasion but something will be worked out. I would bet the odds of some sort of incursion into areas that Russia has seized though.

But I would not bet large sums on my thoughts.

 

[PureX]

I still don't know the real reason for all this. Is it a plan to build an oil pipeline through the Ukraine that Russia wants to have absolute control of? Is that what all this 'invading the Ukraine' business is really about? Or is there some other reason? Like Putin needing some external turmoil to help him consolidate his flailing power at home? I think we need to understand what's really going on here to know how serious his will to invade is. And I, personally, don't have that knowledge. I just hope to God someone in the US government actually knows. Not that there is a lot we can do about it.

 

[Stevicus]

The bull that calls the donkey horned.
The US accuses Russia of what it has always done.

I'm not sure how accurate any of these reports actually are. I guess we won't really know for certain until the Russians actually invade. If they ever do.

Is this a case of the boy who cried wolf?

 

[Estro Felino]

I'm not sure how accurate any of these reports actually are. I guess we won't really know for certain until the Russians actually invade. If they ever do.

Is this a case of the boy who cried wolf?

I am convinced that the American Deep State wants the war, no matter the cost.

 

[Twilight Hue]

Biden and Putin speak; U.S. pulls embassy staff, military trainers from Ukraine | Reuters

Putin said nothing on Macron call to indicate invasion: French official | Reuters

I've seen numerous headlines where they're saying a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent, but according to a French official, Putin's call to Macron didn't indicate invasion. The US and other countries are warning their citizens to leave Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Russians are saying they chased off a US submarine from their territorial waters: Russia chases off U.S. submarine from its far east waters, Moscow says (msn.com)

The U.S. thinks the Russians might be planning some kind of "false flag" as a pretext to justify invasion, but the eyes of the world are on this situation right now, the Russians may decide to hold off and wait. That is, if they were ever planning any invasion at all.

I think Putin was toying with the idea, but he's a smart man. A lot of intelligence can be obtained by the reactions of other foreign countries and I'm sure a wealth of data was made available.

He's a hard read though and conditions and circumstances are not constant.

If he does, I suspect April or May as the weather improves for military operations to be the most effective.

 

[Stevicus]

I am convinced that the American Deep State wants the war, no matter the cost.

I'm not sure what the Deep State might want. They never consult me on anything, even though I could give them all kinds of free advice. If I was to advise them, I'd tell them it's a bad idea to try to wage war against the Russians on their soil. They have a lot of experience in that department, and invaders usually have a pretty rough time of it.

 

[Stevicus]

I still don't know the real reason for all this. Is it a plan to build an oil pipeline through the Ukraine that Russia wants to have absolute control of? Is that what all this 'invading the Ukraine' business is really about? Or is there some other reason? Like Putin needing some external turmoil to help him consolidate his flailing power at home? I think we need to understand what's really going on here to know how serious his will to invade is. And I, personally, don't have that knowledge. I just hope to God someone in the US government actually knows. Not that there is a lot we can do about it.

It's hard to say whether he even wants Ukraine at all, or if it's just a matter of wanting certain sections of territory. He certainly doesn't want Ukraine joining NATO; that's his definite line in the sand. Although, since it would require unanimous approval of all NATO members for Ukraine to join, it's not likely to happen anytime soon.

As you say, it could be about the pipeline, or it could be about Putin wanting to consolidate his power at home by stoking a nationalistic, patriotic fervor. The Russians have historically been wary of the West anyway, for a variety of reasons.

 

[Estro Felino]

I'm not sure what the Deep State might want. They never consult me on anything, even though I could give them all kinds of free advice. If I was to advise them, I'd tell them it's a bad idea to try to wage war against the Russians on their soil. They have a lot of experience in that department, and invaders usually have a pretty rough time of it.

I have a spiritual connection with Putin. He is cared about, here. He is loved here.
He wants no war and he is sure that the American Deep State (not the American States who are 100% outside of it) has been using Ukraine as a tool, as an instrument to maliciously weaken and harm Russia. Since 2010. And eventually waging a war against her.

 

[Martin]

Possibly Putin is out to destabilise Ukraine, and install a government sympathetic to his regime.

 

[David Young]

Post #8: Wouldn't April or May be about the worst possible time for military manoeuvres? With the spring thaw, it would surely be like organising a supermarket-trolley race during the Glastonbury festival.

 

[oldbadger]

I looks as if Putin wants to win back all that was lost in the collapse of the Soviet Union, one country at a time

 

[Mock Turtle]

Whatever the aims of Putin, and regarding his intelligence, he doesn't seem to me to be doing a great deal to enable trust in him or his Kremlin buddies, given that trust might be a useful asset. His attitudes towards any opposition (even blatant suppression of such), his complicity in several murders or attempted ones abroad (with silly exotic poisons or toxins), the doping issues with Russian competitors (one now ongoing), and what he has done with regards the Crimea - all tend to go against having trust in what he says or does. So does that show intelligence? Or does he expect Russia, and any in charge, to be judged by different rules than any other country?

 

[amorphous_constellation]

I still don't know the real reason for all this. Is it a plan to build an oil pipeline through the Ukraine that Russia wants to have absolute control of?

The nord stream 2 would circumvent it, from my understanding, by going through the baltic sea. But the U.S. doesn't want it to be built, from what I can tell, and so seems to want to put sanctions on it. I feel that this kind of a bullish move by the U.S., as it wants to dictate energy supply trade associations for Europe. People complain that heating prices there will go up, and they'll freeze

Not that there is a lot we can do about it.

And I don't think there's a lot we actually should. Though I absolutely do not think Russia has justification in doing whatever its trying to do. Putin and others there, have been talking about their strength in terms of nuclear arms. There are articles talking about how the Russian troops may engage in nuclear strategic drills or exercises, whatever that means. That and the related rhetoric, I find a bit alarming, and think it warrants a hands-off approach

 

[amorphous_constellation]

If he does, I suspect April or May as the weather improves for military operations to be the most effective.

Everything I've looked at, seems to indicate that that whole part of the world gets pretty muddy at that time. Though modern equipment probably can cope.

 

[amorphous_constellation]

Meanwhile, the Russians are saying they chased off a US submarine from their territorial waters: Russia chases off U.S. submarine from its far east waters, Moscow says (msn.com)

I suspect that there is a sort of game the powers play with each other to see who is more undetectable. A pattern of article titles you get when googling this topic seems to make that clear. The only way to see if you are undetectable, I deduct, is to go test if you are

 

[England my lionheart]

Possibly Putin is out to destabilise Ukraine, and install a government sympathetic to his regime.

Hes already chosen the government and fastracked Russian passports for his Ukrainian allies so a possible excuse to invade if they are attacked.

 

[Estro Felino]

Possibly Putin is out to destabilise Ukraine, and install a government sympathetic to his regime.

Ukraine and Belarus are considered buffer states.
They are for creating a buffer zone between Moscow and the EU (NATO countries).
St Petersburg is very very close to the NATO countries of the North.
I guess Putin is worried about Moscow