So will they or won't they? (Russia/Ukraine)

[Martin]

Ukraine and Belarus are considered buffer states.
They are for creating a buffer zone between Moscow and the EU (NATO countries).
St Petersburg is very very close to the NATO countries of the North.
I guess Putin is worried about Moscow

Ukraine might be considered a buffer state by Putin, but this ignores the wishes of the Ukrainian people.
It appears Putin is still fighting the Cold War, and dreams of Russia being great again.

 

[Estro Felino]

Ukraine might be considered a buffer state by Putin, but this ignores the wishes of the Ukrainian people.
It appears Putin is still fighting the Cold War, and dreams of Russia being great again.

Quite the opposite.
Russia is more and more westernized and fears the US want to exclude her from the West

 

[Stevicus]

Putin Tells Macron Invasion Claims Are 'Provocative Speculation' | Barron's (barrons.com)

Russian President Vladimir Putin told his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron Saturday that accusations Moscow plans to attack Ukraine were "provocative speculation" and could lead to a conflict in the ex-Soviet country.

Putin and Macron discussed what Moscow called "provocative speculation related to an allegedly planned Russian 'invasion' of Ukraine," the Kremlin said after phone talks.

In a statement, the Kremlin accused Kyiv's allies of sending "modern weapons" to the ex-Soviet country and being unwilling to force Kyiv authorities to implement Western-brokered agreements to halt a festering conflict in eastern Ukraine.

"Conditions are being created for possible aggressive actions of the Ukrainian security forces in the Donbass," the Kremlin added.

Putin, who hosted Macron at the Kremlin last Monday, stressed that there was no reaction from the United States and NATO to Russia's demands to provide security guarantees, the statement said.

"The unwillingness of the leading Western countries to push the Kyiv authorities to implement the Minsk agreements was also emphasised," the Kremlin said.

The two spoke for one hour 40 minutes, the French presidency said, amid a flurry of diplomacy aimed at dissuading Putin from marching into his western neighbour. US President Joe Biden is due to speak to the Russian leader later Saturday.

 

[Martin]

Quite the opposite.
Russia is more and more westernized and fears the US want to exclude her from the West

So how does threatening to invade Ukraine help? And how did annexing Crimea help?

 

[Estro Felino]

So how does threatening to invade Ukraine help? And how did annexing Crimea help?

Crimeans wanted to be part of the Russian Federation.
No wonder. Now they are an autonomous republic and the capital is a city of federal importance.

 

[PureX]

Ukraine and Belarus are considered buffer states.
They are for creating a buffer zone between Moscow and the EU (NATO countries).
St Petersburg is very very close to the NATO countries of the North.
I guess Putin is worried about Moscow

That's what he says, but I don't really believe it. There is no actual threat, or even increased possibility of a threat. And even if there were, it could be far more easily and cheaply mitigated by treaty. I don;t think Putin is worried about any military threats to Russia. Because there are none. He's not telling us the real reason behind this. And apparently the news outlets aren't either, if they even know. And without knowing the real reason behind this activity, there's no way to know how far Putin is willing to go.

 

[RestlessSoul]

So how does threatening to invade Ukraine help? And how did annexing Crimea help?

Strictly speaking, Russia didn’t annexe the Crimea in 2014 - it took back territory that always was Russian, and only became part of the Ukraine administratively, under Brezhnev’s Presidency of the Soviet Union. Russia will never relinquish Crimea, and most importantly the port of Sevastopol. The leaders of western powers really need to learn enough history (and geography) to understand that fundamental political reality.

 

[Stevicus]

National security adviser Jake Sullivan: Russian invasion of Ukraine could come 'any day now' - UPI.com

Feb. 13 (UPI) -- U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Sunday warned that Russia's military buildup surrounding Ukraine has reached the point that an invasion could take place "any day now."

Sullivan told CNN's State of the Union that the United States has observed an "acceleration" of Russia's build-up of military forces in the past 10 days that indicates the military could launch action "very, very rapidly."

"We cannot perfectly predict the day, but we have now been saying for some time that we are in the window, and an invasion could begin, a major military action could begin by Russia in Ukraine any day now -- that includes this coming week, before the Olympics," he said.

Sullivan said the United States still believes Russia could choose a "diplomatic path" but the United States on Friday warned all Americans in Ukraine to leave the country within 48 hours in preparation for a potential invasion.

"The way they have built up their forces, the way they have maneuvered things in place makes it a distinct possibility that there will be major military action very soon," he said. "And we are prepared to continue to work on diplomacy, but we are also prepared to respond in a united and decisive way with our allies and partners should Russia proceed."

An assessment based on new intelligence and evidence on the ground released Friday showed that Russia is fully prepared to launch an attack with 130,000 troops and major weaponry surrounding Ukraine on three sides, The Washington Post reported.

Russia has also been conducting military exercises in southern Russia, the Black Sea and Belarus, which borders Ukraine to the north.

Sullivan said an attack would likely begin with "a significant barrage of missiles and bomb attacks" that could kill civilians, which is why the United States has urged Americans to leave the country while commercial transport options are still available.

"Those are never as precise as the army -- any army -- would like them to be. We don't even know how precise the Russian army would like them to be," he said of the missile and bomb attacks. "Innocent civilians could be killed regardless of their nationality. It would then be followed by an onslaught of a ground force moving across the Ukrainian frontier. Again, where innocent civilians could get caught in the crossfire or trapped in places they could not move from."

Israel has also sent messages urging the approximately 15,000 Israeli citizens in the country to leave immediately.

In addition, Sullivan reiterated the possibility that Russia could use a false flag operation as a pretext to launch the invasion.

"We have information that we have gathered through intelligence that indicates that there is active planning for this, and it's not just the United States saying it," Sullivan said. "We have our NATO allies stepping out and saying it as well, because they've been able to review that intelligence, assess its credibility and reach the same conclusion we have reached. So I do think the world should be prepared for Russia staging a pretext and then launching a potential military action."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has played down the threat of an invasion, saying "the best friend for enemies is panic in our country."

"All this information helps only to create panic. It doesn't help us," he added.

Ukraine has also said there were no plans to close civilian air space, as Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba asserted that the "situation remains under control" in a video statement released Sunday.

"We are prepared for any scenario of development of events," he said. "We have not been sitting with our arms folded for the last months, we have prepared for all scenarios -- absolutely all -- and as of now we are ready for them."

Sullivan said the United States has been pursuing transparency surrounding the situation to ensure that Russia is not provided the opportunity to "spring something on Ukraine or the world."

"We are going to make sure that we are laying out for the world what we see as transparently and plainly as we possibly can and share that information as widely as we can," he said. "That's what we've done. That's what we'll continue to do."

U.S. President Joe Biden is set to speak with Zelensky by phone on Sunday, Zelensky's spokesman Sergii Nykyforov confirmed via Facebook.

The call comes a day after Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin on a phone call of "swift and severe costs" if Russia moves forward with an invasion against Ukraine.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is also set to meet with Zelensky in Kiev on Monday and Putin in Moscow on Tuesday.

Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron said he'd received assurance from Putin that he would not escalate the tensions.

The national security adviser said the Russians could attack any day, based on observations of Russian troop movements. Other than that, it's not really clear where they're getting their information from or why they think an attack can come any day. Do they have some mole inside Putin's inner circle sending them intelligence? Are they privy to actual hard information, or are they just guessing as to what the Russians might do?

 

[Mock Turtle]

Strictly speaking, Russia didn’t annexe the Crimea in 2014 - it took back territory that always was Russian, and only became part of the Ukraine administratively, under Brezhnev’s Presidency of the Soviet Union. Russia will never relinquish Crimea, and most importantly the port of Sevastopol. The leaders of western powers really need to learn enough history (and geography) to understand that fundamental political reality.

What part of signing an agreement do the Russians not understand?

 

[RestlessSoul]

What part of signing an agreement do the Russians not understand?

What agreement are you referring to?

 

[Mock Turtle]

What agreement are you referring to?

When the Ukraine became an independent nation as the Soviet Union dissolved, such that even if no actual documents were signed (not sure) they were recognised in the international community as an independent nation - with the Crimea being part of such (from 1954). But presumably this meant something:

History of Crimea - Wikipedia

In 1994, the legal status of Crimea as part of Ukraine was backed up by Russia, who pledged to uphold the territorial integrity of Ukraine in a memorandum signed in 1994, also signed by the US and UK.

 

[Stevicus]

Russians scoff at Western fears of Ukraine invasion (msn.com)

 

[InChrist]

Russians scoff at Western fears of Ukraine invasion (msn.com)

I wonder if there is something other that the Ukraine that is the real issue...


“The Ukrainian crisis has nothing to do with Ukraine. It’s about Germany and, in particular, a pipeline that connects Germany to Russia called Nord Stream 2. Washington sees the pipeline as a threat to its primacy in Europe and has tried to sabotage the project at every turn. Even so, Nord Stream has pushed ahead and is now fully-operational and ready-to-go. Once German regulators provide the final certification, the gas deliveries will begin. German homeowners and businesses will have a reliable source of clean and inexpensive energy while Russia will see a significant boost to their gas revenues. It’s a win-win situation for both parties.

The US Foreign Policy establishment is not happy about these developments. They don’t want Germany to become more dependent on Russian gas because commerce builds trust and trust leads to the expansion of trade. As relations grow warmer, more trade barriers are lifted, regulations are eased, travel and tourism increase, and a new security architecture evolves. In a world where Germany and Russia are friends and trading partners, there is no need for US military bases, no need for expensive US-made weapons and missile systems, and no need for NATO. There’s also no need to transact energy deals in US Dollars or to stockpile US Treasuries to balance accounts. Transactions between business partners can be conducted in their own currencies which is bound to precipitate a sharp decline in the value of the dollar and a dramatic shift in economic power. ”

The Crisis in Ukraine Is Not About Ukraine. It's About Germany

 

[metis]

I don't know which is worse: believing in Rand Paul or believing in Tucker Carlson?

With me, it's a toss-up? What about others here?

 

[Stevicus]

I wonder if there is something other that the Ukraine that is the real issue...


“The Ukrainian crisis has nothing to do with Ukraine. It’s about Germany and, in particular, a pipeline that connects Germany to Russia called Nord Stream 2. Washington sees the pipeline as a threat to its primacy in Europe and has tried to sabotage the project at every turn. Even so, Nord Stream has pushed ahead and is now fully-operational and ready-to-go. Once German regulators provide the final certification, the gas deliveries will begin. German homeowners and businesses will have a reliable source of clean and inexpensive energy while Russia will see a significant boost to their gas revenues. It’s a win-win situation for both parties.

The US Foreign Policy establishment is not happy about these developments. They don’t want Germany to become more dependent on Russian gas because commerce builds trust and trust leads to the expansion of trade. As relations grow warmer, more trade barriers are lifted, regulations are eased, travel and tourism increase, and a new security architecture evolves. In a world where Germany and Russia are friends and trading partners, there is no need for US military bases, no need for expensive US-made weapons and missile systems, and no need for NATO. There’s also no need to transact energy deals in US Dollars or to stockpile US Treasuries to balance accounts. Transactions between business partners can be conducted in their own currencies which is bound to precipitate a sharp decline in the value of the dollar and a dramatic shift in economic power. ”

The Crisis in Ukraine Is Not About Ukraine. It's About Germany

That would mean that the US politicians and media are lying about the reasons we're getting involved in this. Not that that's any great surprise...

 

[InChrist]

I don't know which is worse: believing in Rand Paul or believing in Tucker Carlson?

With me, it's a toss-up? What about others here?

Probably believing Biden.

 

[metis]

Probably believing Biden.

Even vastly more believing Trump.

 

[Kooky]

I wonder if there is something other that the Ukraine that is the real issue...


“The Ukrainian crisis has nothing to do with Ukraine. It’s about Germany and, in particular, a pipeline that connects Germany to Russia called Nord Stream 2. Washington sees the pipeline as a threat to its primacy in Europe and has tried to sabotage the project at every turn. Even so, Nord Stream has pushed ahead and is now fully-operational and ready-to-go. Once German regulators provide the final certification, the gas deliveries will begin. German homeowners and businesses will have a reliable source of clean and inexpensive energy while Russia will see a significant boost to their gas revenues. It’s a win-win situation for both parties.

The US Foreign Policy establishment is not happy about these developments. They don’t want Germany to become more dependent on Russian gas because commerce builds trust and trust leads to the expansion of trade. As relations grow warmer, more trade barriers are lifted, regulations are eased, travel and tourism increase, and a new security architecture evolves. In a world where Germany and Russia are friends and trading partners, there is no need for US military bases, no need for expensive US-made weapons and missile systems, and no need for NATO. There’s also no need to transact energy deals in US Dollars or to stockpile US Treasuries to balance accounts. Transactions between business partners can be conducted in their own currencies which is bound to precipitate a sharp decline in the value of the dollar and a dramatic shift in economic power. ”

The Crisis in Ukraine Is Not About Ukraine. It's About Germany

You can tell when an American politician writes a foreign policy piece, because they tend assume that everything in the entire world revolves around America and its geo-economic interests.

The US is little more than a bit player in this dispute, a crude tool to be wielded by the real interests at play (specifically, Russia, Ukraine, and Germany).

 

[RestlessSoul]

You can tell when an American politician writes a foreign policy piece, because they tend assume that everything in the entire world revolves around America and its geo-economic interests.

The US is little more than a bit player in this dispute, a crude tool to be wielded by the real interests at play (specifically, Russia, Ukraine, and Germany).

For a bit player, they're making a lot of noise. Currently being cheered on by pointless idiot Liz Truss, who was presumably appointed UK Foreign Secretary as some sort of joke. I just hope there's someone advising the US administration who can at least point to Ukraine on a map, because I wouldn't trust any US President in the last 20 years to be able to do that.

 

[Kooky]

For a bit player, they're making a lot of noise. Currently being cheered on by pointless idiot Liz Truss, who was presumably appointed UK Foreign Secretary as some sort of joke. I just hope there's someone advising the US administration who can at least point to Ukraine on a map, because I wouldn't trust any US President in the last 20 years to be able to do that.

It's just the usual predictable sabre rattling/peace talks whiplash the US uses every time they have to deal with a hostile country they can't easily invade without serious repercussions.

This is about Ukraine and Russia, primarily - though arguably, in the same way as the days of July-August 1914 were primarily about Serbia and Austria-Hungary.