Soaring Gas Prices

[Mister_T]

In order for you statement "It is either the oil companies or the government", you have to create some more statements. Your statement ought to be a conclusion to a number of premises. For example, "It is not due to supply and demand (and a number of premises to prove that conclusion", "nor is it due to a combination of the two", etc. You have not addressed my supply and demand comments at all, so at the very least that one choice was conveniently ignored, creating a false dichotomy

My statements supportining my conclusions are presented through out this thread. Feel free to read them.

Your remark about supply and demand fails to address the problem of the not-so-gradual increase of gas prices over the past 3 1/2 years, not summer time inflation, which is why I didn't bother responding.

 

[Mister_T]

A fallacy isn't necessarily wrong - it just isn't logically sound. You may very well be correct that it is either Exxon or the Govt. The reason that it is a fallacy is that it may also be OPEC, China, the consumer, random chance, global warming, or any number of other things. That is why it is a false dichotomy. Look it up. You seem to be good at posting irrelevant definitions - try looking up a relevant one.

I have a feeling you think I am talking about your entire argument. I'm not. I'm talking about one fallacious statement.

Also, "Congress" doesn't necesarily think there is evidence - "a member of Congress" does. And I have never said that I don't accept that they are possibly true. I've said that it isn't a foregone conclusion that they are true.

I know what your talking about and I know what a false dichotomy is. And you have yet to provide evidence showing that my comment is indeed, a false dichotomy or fallacious.

 

[SoyLeche]

My statements supportining my conclusions are presented through out this thread. Feel free to read them.

Your remark about supply and demand fails to address the problem of the not-so-gradual increase of gas prices over the past 3 1/2 years, not summer time inflation, which is why I didn't bother responding.

It does if you expand your scope a bit. Like, to China.

 

[Mister_T]

It does if you expand your scope a bit. Like, to China.

Enlighten me.

 

[SoyLeche]

I know what your talking about and I know what a false dichotomy is. And you have yet to provide evidence showing that my comment is indeed, a false dichotomy or fallacious.

I don't need to provide evidence that your dichotomy isn't fallacious - you need to provide evidence that it isn't. If you are going to say either A or B is the cause for something, you need to show why the cause can't be C or D or anything else. Either that, or qualify your statement to make it less strict. Until you do that, you are dealing with a false dichotomy, plain and simple.

 

[SoyLeche]

Enlighten me.

Here's a bit:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/China/Oil.html

For 2006, EIA data forecasts that China’s increase in oil demand will represent 38 percent of the world total increase in demand.

Notice in the graph in the link the increase in the slope of the oil demaded curve that started, oh, about 3 1/2 years ago.

There's one piece of data that needs to get weaved into the analysis of why gas prices are going up.

 

[SoyLeche]

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/71xx/doc7128/04-07-ChinaOil.pdf

I haven't actually read this one, but it may well help too (or, it may hurt my argument - that's fine, because at least it will be data).

 

[SoyLeche]

http://holt.house.gov/pdf/CRS_on_world_oil_demand_Aug_2004.pdf

Here's another one I haven't read, and it's a little old (2004)

 

[Aqualung]

I'm not sure what the "either" does, but saying "Exxon or the government" does not exclude the possibility that it is a combination of the two, does it?

Actually, I think there are probably differing views on this. In the logic course I took "or" did not exclude "and", or something like that.

Good call. I think you're right.

 

[Aqualung]

My statements supportining my conclusions are presented through out this thread. Feel free to read them.

Your remark about supply and demand fails to address the problem of the not-so-gradual increase of gas prices over the past 3 1/2 years, not summer time inflation, which is why I didn't bother responding.

Uh, yeah. How about - rise in demand for high-gas vehicles like suvs and trucks. Rise in people on the road and times they're on the road. General rise in car ownership.

 

[Mister_T]

I don't need to provide evidence that your dichotomy isn't fallacious - you need to provide evidence that it isn't. If you are going to say either A or B is the cause for something, you need to show why the cause can't be C or D or anything else. Either that, or qualify your statement to make it less strict. Until you do that, you are dealing with a false dichotomy, plain and simple.

The reason I do not say it is "C" or "D" is because there is none to my knowledge. If there is, enlighten me.

Once again: Every year around this time, for the past three years, gas shoots up to another $0.50 (roughly) and hovers there until the same time next year where it repeats the process. When asked why gas prices are so high, it is responded with "refinery problems." When asked why they don't fix these problems it is always enviormental restrictions, which are controlled by the government. Two parties in control, thus making either of the two responsible.

I am talking about gasoline only. Not crude oil as a whole.

 

[SoyLeche]

The reason I do not say it is "C" or "D" is because there is none to my knowledge. If there is, enlighten me.

Once again: Every year around this time, for the past three years, gas shoots up to another $0.50 (roughly) and hovers there until the same time next year where it repeats the process. When asked why gas prices are so high, it is responded with "refinery problems." When asked why they don't fix these problems it is always enviormental restrictions, which are controlled by the government. Two parties in control, thus making either of the two responsible.

I am talking about gasoline only. Not crude oil as a whole.

That isn't the only explanation that is given. Usually, summer driving season is the explanation. It happened a bit early this year is all.

I'm also not sure whether they have been able to fully recover from Katrina yet. That was a mess, and it wouldn't surprise me if it wasn't cleaned up yet, even if they were doing everything in their power to get it done.

You still haven't provided any proof that nothing is being done to fix the "refinery problems".

The government has it's hands tied by the people, especially the very vocal environmental and NIMBY people.

 

[SoyLeche]

I am talking about gasoline only. Not crude oil as a whole.

Since one comes from the other a rise in crude oil prices will lead to a rise in gasoline prices.

 

[CDRaider]

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned because this is a very long thread and I haven't a chance to read it all, BUT

the news never tells you the real reasons gas is going up. Most of it is yes, politics and greed but if you look at Nigeria (which i keep trying to post about but the computer won't let me) you'll see that as one of our largest importers, their problems affect ours.

They just had elections and there is serious upheaval from groups in Nigeria that are protesting the elections that have recently resulted in attacks on oil refineries. Acutally you'll see the prices jump up again in a few days because three pipelines were just attacked and it cut the exports by a bunch. We'll feel that soon. Check bbc

 

[SoyLeche]

The reason I do not say it is "C" or "D" is because there is none to my knowledge.

Because you haven't thought it through enough. That is exactly why a false dichotomy is a problem, and why I pointed it out. By making that statement you were artificailly restricting your list of posibilities.

 

[Aqualung]

The reason I do not say it is "C" or "D" is because there is none to my knowledge. If there is, enlighten me.

Supply and demand

http://mtc.ca.gov/maps_and_data/datamart/forecast/ao/aopaper.htm

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/...il_market_basics/dem_image_us_cons_sector.htm

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/...cs/demand_text.htm#U.S. Consumption by sector

Once again: Every year around this time, for the past three years, gas shoots up to another $0.50 (roughly) and hovers there until the same time next year where it repeats the process.

People drive more in the summer. Also known as, supply and demand.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/...ason.htm#Seasonal Patterns in U.S. Oil Demand

http://www.knoxnews.com/kns/business/article/0,1406,KNS_376_5500957,00.html

http://www.mrci.com/energy.php

 

[SoyLeche]

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned because this is a very long thread and I haven't a chance to read it all, BUT

the news never tells you the real reasons gas is going up. Most of it is yes, politics and greed but if you look at Nigeria (which i keep trying to post about but the computer won't let me) you'll see that as one of our largest importers, their problems affect ours.

They just had elections and there is serious upheaval from groups in Nigeria that are protesting the elections that have recently resulted in attacks on oil refineries. Acutally you'll see the prices jump up again in a few days because three pipelines were just attacked and it cut the exports by a bunch. We'll feel that soon. Check bbc

I remember seeing something about that. Didn't some people die when they were trying to go to the broken pipelines with buckets to collect crude oil, or something like that?

 

[Mister_T]

Uh, yeah. How about - rise in demand for high-gas vehicles like suvs and trucks. Rise in people on the road and times they're on the road. General rise in car ownership.

I'm talking about the market as a whole, not just summer time inflation.

 

[SoyLeche]

I'm talking about the market as a whole, not just summer time inflation.

None of the things in the post your quoted were summer time only events.

 

[Mister_T]

That isn't the only explanation that is given. Usually, summer driving season is the explanation. It happened a bit early this year is all.

I'm also not sure whether they have been able to fully recover from Katrina yet. That was a mess, and it wouldn't surprise me if it wasn't cleaned up yet, even if they were doing everything in their power to get it done.

You still haven't provided any proof that nothing is being done to fix the "refinery problems".

The government has it's hands tied by the people, especially the very vocal environmental and NIMBY people.

Summer time inflation is not the cause of gas costing consumers $1.50+ more than three years ago.

You have yet to provide any proof that anything is being done to fix the refinery problems.