Definitely number 1 - as that would be the same nothing that is needed to create God in hypothesis 2, so that mechanism must have existed either way.
I've read a bit of professor Lawrence Krauss' work on this specific question. As time itself is thought to have started at the Big Bang, there was no before in which a cause could have happened to cause it.
But more importantly, as Krauss shows, the two big mysteries of the Universe in modern science may very well be each the answer to the other. Those are:
- how could something (the Universe) come from nothing (no Universe)?
- why is the expansion of the Universe accelerating?
Disclaimer: i am not a physicist/cosmologist, so my understanding is limited. Also, these are not scientifically proven theories, but plausible hypotheses where the math adds up and agrees with observation. If I understand Krauss correctly this is how it goes:
The acceleration of the expansion of the universe is due to something called "dark energy". This is in fact a small amount of negative energy in empty space. How can it be empty if there's negative energy there, I hear you ask. The energy is in the "fabric" of space itself. If you have a cubic metre of space there will be a tiny amount of dark energy there - it is a property of space itself.
After the Big Bang (well duh, as there was no before), when the Universe was smaller and denser than today, gravity was the dominant force (as gravity is stronger the closer things are together), and the expansion of the Universe was therefore slowing down due to gravity as you might expect.
Then, as the Universe got bigger gravity gets weaker as galaxies are farther apart, and then dark energy became the dominant force on cosmological distance scales, causing the expansion to start speeding up again. This acceleration is confirmed by measuring distances and redshift of a special type of supernovae.
So we have a Universe containing matter and dark matter (which does not interact with photons, so light goes right through it and it is transparent and invisible - the term "dark" is not as in "opaque" but as in "does not shine like stars" - but dark matter interacts with gravity in the same way as normal matter).
Matter is a form of energy (E = mc2 describes the amount of energy in 1 gram of matter) and all this normal and dark matter is positive (normal) energy.
Empty space does contain dark energy, which is the negative energy that is a feature of space itself.
If you take all the positive energy in the Universe and subtract the calculated amount of negative energy (based on calculations from the supernova data), you get... drum roll.... PRECISELY ZERO!
The total energy contents of the entire Universe is precisely ZERO!!
Now on to how you get something from nothing. That is in fact extremely easy as long as the total energy in that something is zero. It requires zero energy to create it, zero effort, zero gods. Nothing at all.
Of course there may have been a "cause" still, in the form of quantum fluctuations or other as of yet unknown mechanisms, but on the other hand, maybe you don't need a cause at all?
Imagine that you are in deep, deep empty space. You throw a ball out the window of your spacecraft. The ball will keep on moving unless disturbed by forces or other objects. The cause for the ball starting to move is you throwing it. But the ball does not need a CAUSE to keep moving, as this requires zero energy. If you didn't throw it, it would be stationary, but it would not need a CAUSE to be stationary, as that would require zero energy.
Even in a gravity field, if you throw a ball up from the Moon's surface, it will go up, slowing down as it converts its kinetic energy into potential energy (altitude). Then it starts going down again, converting potential energy into kinetic energy. During the entire movement of the ball, the energy stays constant. In other words, zero energy is added to the ball, and zero is removed. The ball does not need a CAUSE to slow down its upward motion until it starts moving down again. It does not need a CAUSE change direction or speed, as the total energy change in doing so is precisely zero. In fact, the ball cannot suddenly decide not to fall down (THAT would need a cause!). Neither can it accelerate at any other rate than it is doing unless acted upon by a force (cause).
The energy change in creating the universe was, as in the cases with the ball, zero.
Stuff that requires zero total energy can and will happen spontaneously. At the tiniest levels quantum fluctuations happen all the time. An electron/positron pair (matter/antimatter) appear out of nothing, attract each other due to opposite charge, annihilate, no energy gained or lost in the process.
As long as the total energy content of the entire Universe is precisely 0, there is no longer a miracle or God required to create it. And the discovery of dark energy confirms this at least partially, I do not know how far in the peer review and scientific process this is, and as I said I am not expert. I believe Krauss has said that it is not proven, but it is plausible from a scientific point of view, meaning that the mathematics add up, and is confirmed by observation.
But it seems very logical that the only kind of Universe that can spontaneously appear from nothing, is a Universe with 0 total energy.