The Situation in Egypt

[Alceste]

Isnt there "stability" and "normalcy" outside tahrir square right now leading to transition in september?

Um, no. AFAIK, the military has given up attempting to control the crowds, the banks are not trading, the Egyptian pound is dropping in value, food prices continue to increase, and every day more protesters are joining the crowd. Protests continue not only in Cairo, but also Alexandria and Suez. Suleiman, the de facto leader of the country (as nobody in their right mind will speak to Mubarak now) has decided Egypt is "not ready for democracy". That doesn't sound like "normalcy... leading to transition" to me. If it does to you, I'd like some of whatever you're smoking.

 

[kai]

Um, no. AFAIK, the military has given up attempting to control the crowds, the banks are not trading, the Egyptian pound is dropping in value, food prices continue to increase, and every day more protesters are joining the crowd. Protests continue not only in Cairo, but also Alexandria and Suez. Suleiman, the de facto leader of the country (as nobody in their right mind will speak to Mubarak now) has decided Egypt is "not ready for democracy". That doesn't sound like "normalcy... leading to transition" to me. If it does to you, I'd like some of whatever you're smoking.

when did the military seriously start controlling the crowds? the pound is dropping because of the uncertainty and the government has decided its not ready for what kind of democracy? do you know ? they dont have to speak to Mubarak they have decided they arnt going to speak to anyone much.

I am not smoking anything just looking away from the protest at Tahrir square and looking to September again i cant help it

 

[Alceste]

when did the military seriously start controlling the crowds? the pound is dropping because of the uncertainty and the government has decided its not ready for what kind of democracy? do you know ? they dont have to speak to Mubarak they have decided they arnt going to speak to anyone much.

Suleiman said Egypt is "not ready for democracy". That sounds like a blanket rejection of democracy in any form to me. I don't know how it sounds to you. Seeing as he refused to lift the emergency order that has turned Egypt into a police state in the same breath, you've got a rocky road ahead of you if you want to make that sound like the green buds of reform.

I am not smoking anything just looking away from the protest at Tahrir square and looking to September again i cant help it

If the protesters go home, I will tell you what will happen: Mubarak will hand over power to Suleiman in September in yet another illegitimate election characterized by fraud and voter intimidation. The NDP will maintain another "majority" in parliament and nothing of substance will change. In the months leading up to September, the organizers and ringleaders of democratic activism will be sniffed out, rounded up and imprisoned indefinitely. While in prison they will be tortured to deliver up names of other activists and many of them will be killed. Opposition groups will be harassed and intimidated.

Mubarak and his regime is the problem. They're the perpetrators of the violence and destruction and the instrument of repression. It's astonishing to me you can't see that. They are not capable of implementing democratic reform - repression is all they know.

 

[kai]

Suleiman said Egypt is "not ready for democracy". That sounds like a blanket rejection of democracy in any form to me. I don't know how it sounds to you. Seeing as he refused to lift the emergency order that has turned Egypt into a police state in the same breath, you've got a rocky road ahead of you if you want to make that sound like the green buds of reform.

If the protesters go home, I will tell you what will happen: Mubarak will hand over power to Suleiman in September in yet another illegitimate election characterized by fraud and voter intimidation. The NDP will maintain another "majority" in parliament and nothing of substance will change. In the months leading up to September, the organizers and ringleaders of democratic activism will be sniffed out, rounded up and imprisoned indefinitely. While in prison they will be tortured to deliver up names of other activists and many of them will be killed. Opposition groups will be harassed and intimidated.

Mubarak and his regime is the problem. They're the perpetrators of the violence and destruction and the instrument of repression. It's astonishing to me you can't see that. They are not capable of implementing democratic reform - repression is all they know.

well if they are not capable of implementing democratic reform and they ignore international opinion and can survive without aid fronm the US etc. its all over isn't it, the army are not interfering so thats it its the long haul then, sanctions and UN and international condemnation the full Monty.


Nah i think they will impliment change slowly over the coming months because they dont have any choice, things have changed in Egypt and will not go back ,but what concerns me is, there are around 80 million people in Egypt the majority of which are not protesting, the ones that have never heard of Wael Ghonim ,you know the ones without iphones , or dont think Al baradai is suitable because he has spent so little time in Egypt! so who are these people going to vote for in September? I will tell you ,if the opposition doesn't get its act together politically then they will vote for the government that giving concessions thats who.

 

[Alceste]

well if they are not capable of implementing democratic reform and they ignore international opinion and can survive without aid fronm the US etc. its all over isn't it, the army are not interfering so thats it its the long haul then, sanctions and UN and international condemnation the full Monty.

What would make you think the US would withdraw their support? Have they ever done anything like that before? Surely as long as Mubarak keeps the oil flowing, the military aid will flow in the opposite direction. What makes you think the UN would impose sanctions? Elections have been fraudulent in Egypt for years without anybody from the West so much as raising an eyebrow. What's one more dirty, fixed election? Or two? Or ten? Or a hundred?

Nah i think they will impliment change slowly over the coming months because they dont have any choice, things have changed in Egypt and will not go back ,but what concerns me is, there are around 80 million people in Egypt the majority of which are not protesting, the ones that have never heard of Wael Ghonim ,you know the ones without iphones , or dont think Al baradai is suitable because he has spent so little time in Egypt! so who are these people going to vote for in September? I will tell you ,if the opposition doesn't get its act together politically then they will vote for the government that giving concessions thats who.

What you're missing is that they DO have a choice, and Suleiman has chosen not to lift the emergency order that ensures political dissidents can be rounded up and beaten to death at his convenience. He has chosen to stand up in public and proclaim that Egypt is "not ready for democracy". Suleiman has a choice and he has chosen not to implement any meaningful reforms or concede one single demand. Mubarak has a choice and all he's done is shuffle his cabinet, pay a bunch of thugs to beat up protesters, then promise to eventually retire.

The 80 million people who aren't out protesting will vote for the candidate that pleases them most. That's how democracy works, when it works. If the NDP is left to manage the elections, no doubt 85 million of them will "vote" NDP and the rest will vote for various opposition parties.

 

[kai]

What would make you think the US would withdraw their support? Have they ever done anything like that before? Surely as long as Mubarak keeps the oil flowing, the military aid will flow in the opposite direction. What makes you think the UN would impose sanctions? Elections have been fraudulent in Egypt for years without anybody from the West so much as raising an eyebrow. What's one more dirty, fixed election? Or two? Or ten? Or a hundred?

havnt you heard Mubarak is standing down in September,and one month ago, no one could have imagined Suleiman negotiating politely with leading Brotherhood figures Mohamed Saad al-Katatny and Mohamed Morsy



What you're missing is that they DO have a choice, and Suleiman has chosen not to lift the emergency order that ensures political dissidents can be rounded up and beaten to death at his convenience. He has chosen to stand up in public and proclaim that Egypt is "not ready for democracy". Suleiman has a choice and he has chosen not to implement any meaningful reforms or concede one single demand. Mubarak has a choice and all he's done is shuffle his cabinet, pay a bunch of thugs to beat up protesters, then promise to eventually retire.

The 80 million people who aren't out protesting will vote for the candidate that pleases them most. That's how democracy works, when it works. If the NDP is left to manage the elections, no doubt 85 million of them will "vote" NDP and the rest will vote for various opposition parties.

and so were back to my original point what candidates and what manifestos are coming from the protests?

have you notice how quiet the MB are in all this (sorry to bring them up again) its because they dont have to do or say anything do they? they are so well known in Egypt as the only genuine organised opposition.

 

[Alceste]

and so were back to my original point what candidates and what manifestos are coming from the protests?

Many opposition parties already exist, with platforms, candidates and manifestos already established.

Have a gander. List of political parties in Egypt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

All the opposition parties are united in demanding Mubarak's immediate resignation, after which I can only assume they will return to their respective parties and attempt to advance their respective agendas.

It's impossible to know which party will come out ahead unless a genuine election takes place.

have you notice how quiet the MB are in all this (sorry to bring them up again) its because they dont have to do or say anything do they? they are so well known in Egypt as the only genuine organised opposition.

They are the largest opposition party, yes, but not the only one. El-Ghad got 12% of the popular vote (insofar as such a figure can be trusted) in 2005 and boycotted the election in 2010. I don't think they're being all that quiet.

 

[KnightOwl]

I believe it was either Jefferson or Franklin that said democracy is a horrible form of government, but the best we've found so far. The problem with democracy is that it is two wolves and a sheep deciding what's for dinner. Of course if you have a wide mix of people in a democracy such as we have in the U.S. you aren't going to see too much in the way of oppression of the minorities esp. when we have a relatively strong Bill of Rights and a Supreme Court that has done a good job on balance defending that Bill of Rights.

According to the CIA World Factbook, Egypt is 90% Muslim, mostly Sunni. Things would probably get dicey for non-Muslims in a democracy without freedom of religion guaranteed by the constitution. Then again, things are pretty dicey for a lot of people in Egypt right now and in the recent past.

I have no answers, just observations.

 

[kai]

Many opposition parties already exist, with platforms, candidates and manifestos already established.

Have a gander. List of political parties in Egypt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

All the opposition parties are united in demanding Mubarak's immediate resignation, after which I can only assume they will return to their respective parties and attempt to advance their respective agendas.

It's impossible to know which party will come out ahead unless a genuine election takes place.



They are the largest opposition party, yes, but not the only one. El-Ghad got 12% of the popular vote (insofar as such a figure can be trusted) in 2005 and boycotted the election in 2010. I don't think they're being all that quiet.

yes but who is representative of the protesters ? are there things the protesters are wanting that someone has in their manifesto if so whom?

 

[LuisDantas]

I believe it was either Jefferson or Franklin that said democracy is a horrible form of government, but the best we've found so far. The problem with democracy is that it is two wolves and a sheep deciding what's for dinner.

That is not all that democracy can aim to be.

It is all a matter of how enlightened the average citizen is, I suppose.

 

[Alceste]

yes but who is representative of the protesters ? are there things the protesters are wanting that someone has in their manifesto if so whom?

El Baradei has the support of the MB and four opposition groups. Wael is emerging as a popular representative as well. I imagine Wael appeals most to the youth (and two thirds of Egypt's population is under 35). I doubt either of them has a "manifesto", but they both have a history of social activism by which you can easily extrapolate what they want to acheive.

 

[KnightOwl]

That is not all that democracy can aim to be.

It is all a matter of how enlightened the average citizen is, I suppose.

The average citizen isn't very enlightened. Despite popular opinion I think the average citizen in most countries today is more knowledgeable than any time in history. This may not translate into "more enlightened" per se, but we have a tendency to compare the avg shmuck to day with those who wrote in the past -- we don't have a lot of first hand accounts from those who did not write which was a much larger percentage of the population than now.

Also when you have massive campaigns of propaganda taking place like some of the stories I've heard out this Egyptian mess, it is hard for even the most enlightened to make intelligent decisions. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say I think there is probably propaganda being disseminated from more than one party in this.

I hope in the future school children look back at the history of world events from our time and consider them as unsophisticated and barbaric as we view things like the atrocities carried out upon suspected witches in the middle ages.

Oh wait a minute... I just read a story about people jailed for practicing witchcraft.
Humanism in Action in Malawi


Good Luck future citizens!

 

[Sahar]

 

[England my lionheart]

Hi Sahar,i heard on the \news that the protesters have blocked Parliament and there has been some violence outside Cairo,is it true

 

[England my lionheart]

BBC News - Egypt protests: US steps up pressure on Cairo

 

[kai]

The Egyptian genie can't be put back in the bottle

US Vice-President Joe Biden has been phoning his opposite number in Egypt, Omar Suleiman, on an almost daily basis. His most recent call (yesterday) was the toughest yet.

He said the emergency law, which has been in force for 43 years and allows a broad range of powers, should be lifted immediately.

BBC - Mark Mardell's America: The Egyptian genie can't be put back in the bottle

 

[Alceste]

Hi Sahar,i heard on the \news that the protesters have blocked Parliament and there has been some violence outside Cairo,is it true

Apparently thousands of protesters have splintered off and are staging a sit-in / road block of parliament. There have been clashes in Cairo, and in a small town a couple hundred km south, protesters burned seven public buildings to the ground (mostly police stations) after three protesters were killed. The army is collaborating with state security to arrest, detain, interrogate and torture random people plucked off the streets. Hundreds confirmed but thousands more suspected. Despite the violence and intimidation, the crowd is still growing every day.

Still think Mubarak's regime can be trusted to implement democratic reform, and that everything is going back to normal?

 

[kai]

Apparently thousands of protesters have splintered off and are staging a sit-in / road block of parliament. There have been clashes in Cairo, and in a small town a couple hundred km south, protesters burned seven public buildings to the ground (mostly police stations) after three protesters were killed. The army is collaborating with state security to arrest, detain, interrogate and torture random people plucked off the streets. Hundreds confirmed but thousands more suspected. Despite the violence and intimidation, the crowd is still growing every day.

Still think Mubarak's regime can be trusted to implement democratic reform, and that everything is going back to normal?

No it could be taking a turn for the worse. i am still concerned on what position the Army will ultimately take.

 

[England my lionheart]

Apparently thousands of protesters have splintered off and are staging a sit-in / road block of parliament. There have been clashes in Cairo, and in a small town a couple hundred km south, protesters burned seven public buildings to the ground (mostly police stations) after three protesters were killed. The army is collaborating with state security to arrest, detain, interrogate and torture random people plucked off the streets. Hundreds confirmed but thousands more suspected. Despite the violence and intimidation, the crowd is still growing every day.

Still think Mubarak's regime can be trusted to implement democratic reform, and that everything is going back to normal?

Not once have i said he can be trusted,i detest what his regime has done,i said he was a scumbag four years ago when he jailed Kareem Amer the Egyptian Blogger for insulting Mubarak Al Ahzar and Islam.

 

[Badran]

It says on the news that Mubarak is going to announce his departure or leaving of the rule tonight, i'm not sure what is this based on yet.