Do we yet know what natural is in the greater scheme of things?
Reality as a whole. There are different terms, all just as vague. But in a sense, we don't know the totality of it all.
In simple terms (like me):
It appears to me it is energy (for the sake of the argument) changing into something else, by sheer luck.
If the world is deterministic, then there's nothing that's truly lucky, random, or by chance. We don't know if it is truly deterministic or not.
Have you ever played Yatzee!? In that game you roll dice. That's the sheer luck part. Then you pick the dice you want to keep and roll the others. Repeat that max 3 times. And you can then select which row to put the sum into. That's the selection part. Luck -> Selection -> Result.
Do you know how a sieve works? Throw some sand in there--that's the luck part--and the sieve will filter our the smaller grains and disallow the bigger grains passthrough. That's the selection part. It works. That's how the world works.
If there is some supernatural God who planned all these things, he could have created Evolution as the process to produce life.
The key here, is there enough evidence to convince us that evolution is actually happening? Yes, there is. There's a lot of evidence of natural selection for instance. We also know how and why genes mutate. We don't know everything yet, but there's nothing in evolution that is totally outrageous simply because there's too much evidence to support it.
Take another topic, like quantum mechanics. A lot in QM is strange, mystical, counter-intuitive, and sometimes so crazy that we can't believe it's true. But it still is. By tests and experiments many of the properties and rules of QM are true, even if they don't make sense to our mind.
Some of those things are random and some of those things are not. The things which are non-random act on those which are random. Even some of those things have to form some sort of order or laws to make other things work. Is that it?
All depends on if the world is deterministic or not. Truly random would suggest that it's indeterministic. Is it?
If so, is that really an acceptable answer as to where everything comes from?
Where it comes from is perhaps not the same question as how does it work.
Where a car comes from (factory) is not the same issue as how the engine works. Evolution is true. It's evident. Why it is here, and how the world became that way, that's another question.
Does this make sense? It sounds contrived to me.
Not really. It's contrived to put two different questions into one and force the same answer to both.
May I ask, the stars, planets, galaxies, supernovas, meteor showers, etc. Are they natural or planned, executed, and process by a controlling force? Is physics, chemistry, nutrition, etc natural or controlled by a supernatural being?
If you say they're natural, that means you accept that some things that God created are by design natural. Evolution is also natural, the same way as stars forming in nebulas. Gravity pulls the particles together over millions of years and the pressure builds up and eventually you have a reaction that lights the newborn star up (newborn that took millions of years). Is that by natural "chance" or by Godly control? Is God sitting with trillions of joysticks and playing games with the planets or are they rotating around the Sun based on gravitational force? If you believe those things to be natural (even though by design), the same goes for evolution. Evolution works on natural principles, and perhaps those principles are designed by a God... or not... but that's another question. Evolution is true regardless if God created evolution or not.