joelr
Well-Known Member
That is from page 253. Earlier in the chapter about prior probability, pg 239 he mentions the RR class isn't important in the long run analysis:
“Again, even if we started from a neutral prior of 50% and walked our way through ‘all persons claimed to be historical’ to ‘all persons who became Rank–Raglan heroes’, we’d end up again with that same probability of 1 in 3. For example, if again there were 5,000 historical persons and 1,000 mythical persons, the prior probability of being historical would be 5/6; and of not being historical, 1/6. But if there are 10 mythical men in the Rank–Raglan class and 5 historical men (the four we are granting, plus one more, who may or may not be Jesus), then the probability of being in that class given that someone was historical would be 5/5000, which is 1/1000; and the probability given that they were mythical would be 10/1000, which is 1/100. This gives us a final probability of 1/3, hence 33%.16 No matter how you chew on it, no matter what numbers you put in, with these ratios you always end up with the same prior probability that Jesus was an actual historical man: just 33% at best.”
Excerpt From
On the Historicity of Jesus
Richard Carrier
"It won't really matter what you start with to determine prior probability, however, because whatever you don't use for that will become part of e (the evidence) anyway, which you will then have to deal with later, and when you do you will get the same mathematical result regardless. I will demonstrate that for this case later in the chapter. But for now, we have a clear-cut reference class to draw a prior from."
"No one can ever cite any expert opinion on whether Josephus mentioned Jesus, if that opinion was published before 2014. Why? Because so much new research has been published on the subject in the last ten years, that opinions published earlier were uninformed (the latest important findings were published in 2013 and 2014, but crucial new results have come out from 2008 on; and one from way back in 1995 that has been ignored until now). Anytime someone cites or quotes someone saying Josephus mentioned Jesus, ask them, “When was that published?” Because if it was published before 2014, it doesn’t count. It’s like that scientist who says no data storage lasts beyond a few centuries. Because he wasn’t up to date on his own literature.Richard Carrier says that, most other scholars disagree. You are still confusing what Richard Carrier says on his blog with uncontested fact.
Most scholars consider there to be multiple independent sources, some disagree.
Since 2008, in addition to toppling the argument from Arabic, peer reviewed research has worsened the case for authenticity even further.
- The content, concepts, and sequence of the TF matches the gospel summary in Luke 24 (Goldberg 1995).
- The style of the TF is more Eusebian than Josephan (Olson 2013; Feldman 2012).
- And the narrative structure of the TF is not even remotely Josephan, but is a perfect match for Christian creedal statements (in respect to the treatment of time, story, emplotment, and apologetic: Hopper 2014)."
You are still making false assumptions about Carrier and my use of his work.
You are wrong. Just as Paul speaks of the suffering of Jesus Plutarch says the sufferings/passion (pathemata) of other savior gods were spoken of in other mystery cults.Yet all of them share things in common that are absent from the emergence of the Jesus cult: emergence in pretty much real time and explainable by a normal person with a small amount of magical mythology rather than a standard polytheistic god.
So, if Jesus was a man who was deified, would you a) expect his myths to follow cultural tropes b) not expect his myths to follow cultural tropes?
Justin Martyr explained that Jesus was exactly like all the other Greek deities. He had to claim the devil made it look that way to fool Christians into thinking Jesus was just another Greek deity.
At a similar time when Jesus stories were beginning, Romulus stories were popular. He is the founder of Rome, he was the son of a God, born of a virgin, an attempt is made to kill him as a child, he is saved. raised by a poor family, became a lowly shepard, then beloved by the people and hailed as a king. He is killed by the elite, raised from the dead, appears to a friend to tell the good news to the people and ascends to heaven to rule from high. Plutarch tells the story.
Just like Jesus. There is your normal person with "magic bits".
The Jesus myths follow tropes but with a Jewish spin on them. Many other demigods underwent their passion in the lower celestial realm and later stories on earth were set for them.