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Trumpty Dumpty

P

Ponder This

Well-Known Member
Revoltingest said:
Mid-term elections tend to strongly favor the
party not in the presidency. But this dint happen.
So Trump's advocacy for candidates looks bad
for them.
Click to expand...

I agree that the mid-term elections didn't go strongly in the favor of Republicans.
That doesn't mean that they would've fared better without Trump advocacy.
But I acknowledge that people can regard things that don't meet their expectations as bad.
 
J

JIMMY12345

Active Member
Revoltingest said:
I saw this nickname for him in the news.
It's about Trump's disastrous effect on candidates he supported.
Here's how Donald Trump sabotaged the Republican midterms
Click to expand...
Ponder This said:
I agree that the mid-term elections didn't go strongly in the favor of Republicans.
That doesn't mean that they would've fared better without Trump advocacy.
But I acknowledge that people can regard things that don't meet their expectations as bad.
Click to expand...
Trump has the backing of powerful people including Eastern interests.He could well be back.Money talks.
 
P

Ponder This

Well-Known Member
Revoltingest said:
But Trump's toxicity is a good explanation.
None better has been offered.
Click to expand...

More than 1 million voters switch to GOP, raising alarm for Democrats

Also most of the additional six million Republican voters in 2022 weren't in swing states.
Saying Trump is toxic doesn't explain this. A better explanation is that Democrats targetted swing states much more heavily (which they did). Another better explanation is to look at the biggest swing demographic in the 2022 election, which was single, young women. That gives a much better explanation for what happened, because Democrats pushed hard on making abortion an election issue and that is exactly the demographic that would be most likely to want the right to kill their babies.

I suggest that you should be wary of jumping on "Trump is toxic" as the best explanation for what happened, espcially if you already have a negative attitude about Trump. There is plenty of support for Trump, but not everything is about Trump.
 
fantome profane

fantome profane

Anti-Woke = Anti-Justice
Premium Member
Ponder This said:
Another better explanation is to look at the biggest swing demographic in the 2022 election, which was single, young women. That gives a much better explanation for what happened, because Democrats pushed hard on making abortion an election issue
Click to expand...
But even that is indirectly tied to Trump. Trump is the one who promised to only appoint pro-life justices to the Supreme Court, and yes, that is what he did.
 
Revoltingest

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
Ponder This said:
More than 1 million voters switch to GOP, raising alarm for Democrats

Also most of the additional six million Republican voters in 2022 weren't in swing states.
Saying Trump is toxic doesn't explain this. A better explanation is that Democrats targetted swing states much more heavily (which they did). Another better explanation is to look at the biggest swing demographic in the 2022 election, which was single, young women. That gives a much better explanation for what happened, because Democrats pushed hard on making abortion an election issue and that is exactly the demographic that would be most likely to want the right to kill their babies.

I suggest that you should be wary of jumping on "Trump is toxic" as the best explanation for what happened, espcially if you already have a negative attitude about Trump. There is plenty of support for Trump, but not everything is about Trump.
Click to expand...
Trump's support still appears to be waning.
I wouldn't presume that Republican Party
membership gains are due to him. Do you
have evidence for that?
 
P

Ponder This

Well-Known Member
Revoltingest said:
Trump's support still appears to be waning.
I wouldn't presume that Republican Party
membership gains are due to him. Do you
have evidence for that?
Click to expand...

If support for Trump was waning then you would expect a decrease in Republican membership before the election - not an increase before the election. Why would you assume that waning support for Trump would coincide with increased Republican membership? I'm suggesting that you look at other causes than Orange Man Bad. Is it really so inconceivable that there were other factors in the election besides Trump that had a greater influence on the outcome than Trump?
 
Revoltingest

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
Ponder This said:
If support for Trump was waning then you would expect a decrease in Republican membership before the election - not an increase before the election. Why would you assume that waning support for Trump would coincide with increased Republican membership? I'm suggesting that you look at other causes than Orange Man Bad. Is it really so inconceivable that there were other factors in the election besides Trump that had a greater influence on the outcome than Trump?
Click to expand...
Republicans doing worse than expected
suggests Trump's waning power. Of course,
there are other factors, eg, decisions by a
SCOTUS that he packed with anti-abortion
Catholics.
 
Subduction Zone

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
Ponder This said:
If support for Trump was waning then you would expect a decrease in Republican membership before the election - not an increase before the election. Why would you assume that waning support for Trump would coincide with increased Republican membership? I'm suggesting that you look at other causes than Orange Man Bad. Is it really so inconceivable that there were other factors in the election besides Trump that had a greater influence on the outcome than Trump?
Click to expand...
It is not that simple. A lot of people are not that bright when it comes to politics. Look at how many here were willing to blame Biden for the economy when he was not the cause of our current woes. A better case could be made against Trump rather than against Biden, but I am not blaming Trump either. At any rate do this inability to understand economics there were quite a few new Republicans before the election. That increase had nothing to do with Trump's popularity.

And various sources did point to Trump's loss in popularity before the election. The election only showed how toxic is support could be of a candidate.
 
P

Ponder This

Well-Known Member
Revoltingest said:
Republicans doing worse than expected
suggests Trump's waning power. Of course,
there are other factors, eg, decisions by a
SCOTUS that he packed with anti-abortion
Catholics.
Click to expand...

I'll agree that having an election not meet expectations is a reason that support for Trump might diminish slightly going forward because there are people who look at the result of the election and blame Trump after the fact. But it's not the other way around. In other words, the failure to meet expectations is the cause and the diminish in Trump power is the result.
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
The Poll shows approval for Trump leading up to the mid-term elections. Support for Trump increased. At worst, you can argue that approval of Trump held. You can't really say that approval for Trump went down prior to the mid-term elections.

The decision by SCOTUS was inevitable. Ruth Bader Ginsburg herself pointed out the problem with Roe vs Wade. The case leading to the overturn of Roe vs Wade (Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization) came to the Supreme Court when it came to the Supreme Court (in 2022). Moreover, the impact of that decision in the public eye likely had far more to do with the leak of the decision months prior than it had to do with the actual decision itself.
 
Revoltingest

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
Ponder This said:
I'll agree that having an election not meet expectations is a reason that support for Trump might diminish slightly going forward because there are people who look at the result of the election and blame Trump after the fact. But it's not the other way around. In other words, the failure to meet expectations is the cause and the diminish in Trump power is the result.
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
The Poll shows approval for Trump leading up to the mid-term elections. Support for Trump increased. At worst, you can argue that approval of Trump held. You can't really say that approval for Trump went down prior to the mid-term elections.

The decision by SCOTUS was inevitable. Ruth Bader Ginsburg herself pointed out the problem with Roe vs Wade. The case leading to the overturn of Roe vs Wade (Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization) came to the Supreme Court when it came to the Supreme Court (in 2022). Moreover, the impact of that decision in the public eye likely had far more to do with the leak of the decision months prior than it had to do with the actual decision itself.
Click to expand...
The leak merely resulted in the decision being
known a little earlier. Overturning Roe v Wade
was inevitable only after Trump stacked the
court with anti-abortion justices.
 
Subduction Zone

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
SkepticThinker said:
Barf.

I couldn't even listen all the way to the end. Too many lies and I (almost) forgot how much I hate the sound of his voice. Ugh.
Click to expand...
At least the fact checkers were ready on CNN they pointed out his some of his lies almost immediately. He was the first President that caused fact checking to be a full time job.
 
Guitar's Cry

Guitar's Cry

Disciple of Pan
Ponder This said:
If support for Trump was waning then you would expect a decrease in Republican membership before the election - not an increase before the election. Why would you assume that waning support for Trump would coincide with increased Republican membership? I'm suggesting that you look at other causes than Orange Man Bad. Is it really so inconceivable that there were other factors in the election besides Trump that had a greater influence on the outcome than Trump?
Click to expand...

Some of that increase may have been before the primaries so that Democrats could help vote in Trumpian candidates they knew would do bad in the election.
 
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