UK EU Referendum - Stay in or leave?

[mindlight]

Fifth largest economy in the world, I think we Brits can be quite pessimistic about how influential we actually are. Other countries lower down on the economic ladder manage just fine and negotiate their own trade deals, we can do even better.

The EUs economic mass is greater than that of America and there is a negotiation advantage in that weight when it comes to trade deals etc. Britain can of course be an independent nation but there would be serious changes. Small to medium sized businesses might do better cause they are less dependent on the EU markets for instance but large multinationals think of Europe as a whole and may be disinclined to locate in the UK if they do not have the same free access to EU markets as in other countries. The CBI thinks it would cost more to leave than to stay. Also there is the loss of military influence with the USA to consider.

While I don't agree it will necessarily be as painful as you say, even if it was painful in the short run, I would say independence is worth it.

Oh it would be painful. The amount of law and regulations that would need to be rewritten is considerable. What about British people who live and work in Europe? What happens to us when freedom of movement is revoked? We would have renegotiate trade deals with a Europe anxious not to encourage others to follow our example and leave the club. What are the real benefits of independence in your view? If you believe that the UK could elect an old style Labour party for instance you might be disappointed by the British people themselves who have shifted to the right in recent years.

A prisoner who manages to escape his prison will find himself in a world that is harsh and difficult, and will have to fend for himself. The prisoner's muscles will have grown weak and slow, to the point he has forgotten how to live an independent life.

I hope the prisoner will pull through and believe it is worthwhile to have independence, even if it means adjusting to independent living again. Or, sadly, he may return to his prison cell, because it's a lot easier to be dependent on someone else, to have your meals prepared for you, a room to sleep in.

Oh but it is a very comfortable prison! It is a good analogy for the leave campaign to use though. I think Britains consistent ability to hit above its weight is enhanced by membership of the European club.

After Merkel took in an absurd 1 million migrants I'm not sure what reform she's after. Less regulation I suppose, but that's not really enough.

In business terms she is quite British minded and knows that reforms are needed. Also I support the compassion she has shown to immigrants and also bear in mind Germanys declining population means they need to have immigrants to make up the baby deficit. If your vision of Europe and the UK is of a rich mans fortress designed to keep those dirty foreigners out then I think history, demographic and economic reality contradicts you. The UK itself is a nation of immigrants.

 

[Sultan Of Swing]

The EUs economic mass is greater than that of America and there is a negotiation advantage in that weight when it comes to trade deals etc. Britain can of course be an independent nation but there would be serious changes. Small to medium sized businesses might do better cause they are less dependent on the EU markets for instance but large multinationals think of Europe as a whole and may be disinclined to locate in the UK if they do not have the same free access to EU markets as in other countries. The CBI thinks it would cost more to leave than to stay. Also there is the loss of military influence with the USA to consider.

The CBI also said we should join the euro.

Oh it would be painful. The amount of law and regulations that would need to be rewritten is considerable. What about British people who live and work in Europe? What happens to us when freedom of movement is revoked? We would have renegotiate trade deals with a Europe anxious not to encourage others to follow our example and leave the club. What are the real benefits of independence in your view? If you believe that the UK could elect an old style Labour party for instance you might be disappointed by the British people themselves who have shifted to the right in recent years.

If we vote to leave there will be a substantial grace period to get deals sorted. Trade deals will be made, because frankly if Germany or France didn't have deals with us they'd lose billions in their export market. We are Germany's biggest car export market and Germany's third biggest export market overall. Similar figures can be provided for other European countries. They aren't going to snub us out of pride when they would lose billions.

In business terms she is quite British minded and knows that reforms are needed. Also I support the compassion she has shown to immigrants and also bear in mind Germanys declining population means they need to have immigrants to make up the baby deficit. If your vision of Europe and the UK is of a rich mans fortress designed to keep those dirty foreigners out then I think history, demographic and economic reality contradicts you.

I don't think the UK is a 'rich mans fortress to keep those dirty foreigners out', what an unnecessary statement.
I think skilled immigration is a good thing, as long as it's controlled and not in mass numbers as we've been seeing over the past few years. I don't believe we can culturally absorb hundreds of thousands of people a year and properly assimilate them without them ghettoising and forming their own little communities. Multiculturalism is a failed project, and hurts social cohesion. Britain needs only one culture, that is most fruitful for the legitimacy of its democracy and its sense of nationhood.

The UK itself is a nation of immigrants.

Never on this level. The Vikings, the Normans, the Huguenots, they weren't coming in hundreds of thousands every year. The level of migration we're seeing cannot be sustained, economically or culturally. Housing is low, wages are being driven down and I don't know how we expect to assimilate numbers this great. I'm sure the multinational corporations love it so they can get lower waged workers, but it's not good for society as a whole. And if we have millions in the country who aren't assimilated, we have a divided nation with no shared culture, our democracy is undermined and Britain moves closer and closer to cultural suicide. The decisions over immigration are not just mistakes we can make lightly, they will affect our nation permanently and the generations to come will have to live with it.

 

[rocala]

What about if we went for real independence. Leave the EU and the Commonwealth and NATO. Any thoughts?

 

[Sultan Of Swing]

What about if we went for real independence. Leave the EU and the Commonwealth and NATO. Any thoughts?

Leaving the Commonwealth serves no purpose, it doesn't affect our independence in any way.

Leaving NATO is more interesting, as we are militarily obliged to engage in war with anyone who attacks a NATO member.

Back in the 60s and 70s NATO was a good idea, there needed to be a strong robust response to Soviet aggression.

Nowadays, not so much. The Soviet Union is dead and gone, I don't really see the need for NATO anymore, though ultimately I'm undecided.

NATO just seems more like a liability these days that will accidentally plunge us into World War III, rather than a defence against anyone.

 

[rocala]

Leaving the Commonwealth serves no purpose, it doesn't affect our independence in any way.

Not sure on this. The Commonwealth has an effect on voting rights and therefore our democracy and ultimately our independence. For example if the referendum was to end with a pro stay majority and a study showed that this was achieved by the voting habits of commonwealth immigrants, would it be 'democracy'.

 

[Sultan Of Swing]

Not sure on this. The Commonwealth has an effect on voting rights and therefore our democracy and ultimately our independence. For example if the referendum was to end with a pro stay majority and a study showed that this was achieved by the voting habits of commonwealth immigrants, would it be 'democracy'.

You raise a good point. If the EU vote was somehow won mostly by Commonwealth votes, that would be pretty bad. I suppose the legitimacy of democracy goes back to our shared culture, nationhood and histories, and some would argue we really don't share much in common with the Commonwealth, while others would say the shared imperial history does produce some sense of togetherness that legitimises democracy. I'm undecided.

 

[rocala]

I'm undecided.

Yes it is incredibly complex.

 

[mindlight]

The CBI also said we should join the euro.

Yeh and I would have disagreed with them on that. But it is not a unanimous picture even in the CBI. They have done 7 authoritative studies of the EU membership issue considering a range of criteria. 5 out of 7 considered the long term benefits of EU membership outweighed the disadvantages. One can also ask whether or not one can put a price on freedom. We are talking about between -2.5% - 9% impact (4-5% midrange estimate of the benefit). Some people would not consider that statistically significant as a price for freedom. Personally I am 70-30 in favour of staying right now.

http://news.cbi.org.uk/news/cbi-literature-review-of-the-impact-of-eu-membership-to-the-uk-economy/

If we vote to leave there will be a substantial grace period to get deals sorted. Trade deals will be made, because frankly if Germany or France didn't have deals with us they'd lose billions in their export market. We are Germany's biggest car export market and Germany's third biggest export market overall. Similar figures can be provided for other European countries. They aren't going to snub us out of pride when they would lose billions.

Yes this is true given the UKs massive trade deficit with Europe they have no interest in allowing us to exercise our new found freedoms to exclude them from our markets. There is also the fact that Britains global trade is growing faster than its EU trade and has better long term prospects. Although much of that trade may also be contingent on access to European suppliers and logistics?

I don't think the UK is a 'rich mans fortress to keep those dirty foreigners out', what an unnecessary statement.

True I was trying to assess if you had a racial reason for your desire to leave. Seems to have been unnecessary.

I think skilled immigration is a good thing, as long as it's controlled and not in mass numbers as we've been seeing over the past few years. I don't believe we can culturally absorb hundreds of thousands of people a year and properly assimilate them without them ghettoising and forming their own little communities. Multiculturalism is a failed project, and hurts social cohesion. Britain needs only one culture, that is most fruitful for the legitimacy of its democracy and its sense of nationhood.

I do not think that a Muslim counter culture is of much benefit to the UK however the Chinese and Indian sub cultures for instance have been more productive. But you are right that the numbers of immigrants per year is causing structural problems. Some of those problems relate to the way the British economy works though. The massive concentration of immigrants in the South East and London is due to the fact that is the real economic engine of the country. Maybe if Britain could get its regional economies working better then the distribution of immigrants would not be so disruptive.

Never on this level. The Vikings, the Normans, the Huguenots, they weren't coming in hundreds of thousands every year. The level of migration we're seeing cannot be sustained, economically or culturally. Housing is low, wages are being driven down and I don't know how we expect to assimilate numbers this great. I'm sure the multinational corporations love it so they can get lower waged workers, but it's not good for society as a whole. And if we have millions in the country who aren't assimilated, we have a divided nation with no shared culture, our democracy is undermined and Britain moves closer and closer to cultural suicide. The decisions over immigration are not just mistakes we can make lightly, they will affect our nation permanently and the generations to come will have to live with it.

The Anglo Saxons effectively committed genocide against the indigenous Celts. The recent migrations are rather tame by comparison. We have benefitted from the Romans, the French / Viking Normans, the multinational Catholic church and whole range of other groups over the years. Britains ability to engage with the global economy is enhanced by its essentially cosmopolitan appeal. Again if immigration was better distributed and dysfunctions in the UK economy could be resolved the social disruptiveness would be far less even at current levels.

 

[mindlight]

What about if we went for real independence. Leave the EU and the Commonwealth and NATO. Any thoughts?

There are various models of independence e.g. The Norwegian, the Swiss etc. But what you are suggesting goes way beyond all of these. Even setting aside obvious problems like the fact that Britain cannot even feed itself without international trade and relationships I would largely reject this aspiration.

NATO has kept the peace for the last 70 years - membership both enhances our security and cuts the costs of securing our borders because of our reliance on our friends so not sure there is any benefit there at all in leaving NATO.

The Commonwealth connection is mostly a friendship and historical thing but so also has economic benefits and potential. There are ways in which we need to revisit the experience of empire and leave aspects of it behind but the connections we have here are mainly beneficial in my view also.

The EU is of course the big debating point of this OP. As I said earlier there are benefits and disadvantages and these need to be weighed but I come in 70-30 in favour at present.

 

[mindlight]

Not sure on this. The Commonwealth has an effect on voting rights and therefore our democracy and ultimately our independence. For example if the referendum was to end with a pro stay majority and a study showed that this was achieved by the voting habits of commonwealth immigrants, would it be 'democracy'.

My father was born in India in the last days of the Raj and came back with independence. My family served British imperial interests in India and the people themselves for some 150 years. Are they any less British than those whose families never left Britains shores. Am I less British cause I now live in Europe? I think your question comes down to the notion of citizenship. Are people from immigrant backgrounds any less British than those with centuries old families in the Islands?

 

[Sultan Of Swing]

My father was born in India in the last days of the Raj and came back with independence. My family served British imperial interests in India and the people themselves for some 150 years. Are they any less British than those whose families never left Britains shores. Am I less British cause I now live in Europe? I think your question comes down to the notion of citizenship. Are people from immigrant backgrounds any less British than those with centuries old families in the Islands?

I think he means people who vote and aren't actually British citizens but are Commonwealth citizens, who are allowed to vote in British elections, not all of whom will be like yourself or your father who served British interests.

Should a person, by virtue of being born in a Commonwealth country like India, be eligible to vote in Britain, in a country they may have no connection to?

 

[mindlight]

I think he means people who vote and aren't actually British citizens but are Commonwealth citizens, who are allowed to vote in British elections, not all of whom will be like yourself or your father who served British interests.

Should a person, by virtue of being born in a Commonwealth country like India, be eligible to vote in Britain, in a country they may have no connection to?

Maybe he needs to clarify himself what he means. My understanding is that only people from Malta, Cyprus or Gibraltar would be eligible for such a vote in the actual referendum. Since these countries are within the bounds of the EU that makes some sense. Also they are not that many. Many of the Indians who came over after the Raj ended had also served the Raj and wanted to continue to live in a British controlled context. Britain itself was changed by the experience of forming and then relinquishing a global empire so why should we redefine our history to exclude people from empire backgrounds. My family only had British empire passports when they applied for citizenship (having been away for 150 years) much like many of the non whites who also came over. We had to prove our connection with birth certificates going back to the last physical connection with the UK in the 18th century to get full British passports.

 

[Sultan Of Swing]

Maybe he needs to clarify himself what he means. My understanding is that only people from Malta, Cyprus or Gibraltar would be eligible for such a vote in the actual referendum. Since these countries are within the bounds of the EU that makes some sense. Also they are not that many. Many of the Indians who came over after the Raj ended had also served the Raj and wanted to continue to live in a British controlled context. Britain itself was changed by the experience of forming and then relinquishing a global empire so why should we redefine our history to exclude people from empire backgrounds. My family only had British empire passports when they applied for citizenship (having been away for 150 years) much like many of the non whites who also came over. We had to prove our connection with birth certificates going back to the last physical connection with the UK in the 18th century to get full British passports.

I may be understanding it wrong, but it seems as though any citizen of a Commonwealth country, including India, can vote in British elections: http://www.electoralcommission.org....-is-eligible-to-vote-at-a-uk-general-election

 

[rocala]

Are people from immigrant backgrounds any less British than those with centuries old families in the Islands?

No my friend they are not, and I have never said otherwise.

 

[The Emperor of Mankind]

Yes true and I do trust the common sense of the English people.

What about the rest of us? We're not all English, you know. It'd be such a shame if Scotland, Wales and/or Northern Ireland were to be dragged out of the EU even though we wanted to stay in.

 

[Sultan Of Swing]

What about the rest of us? We're not all English, you know. It'd be such a shame if Scotland, Wales and/or Northern Ireland were to be dragged out of the EU even though we wanted to stay in.

I've always found it funny that Scotland wanted to be 'independent', and yet still remain a subject of the European superstate.

 

[The Emperor of Mankind]

The referendum has been called for June 23rd.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-35621079
Should the UK leave the EU?

Absolutely not. Not with the Tories enjoying such electoral 'success' south of the border.

If it does is the EU finished as an effective organisation?

I'm not sure. I get the impression the other members of the EU would be quite glad to see the back of us, to be honest.

Would it be good or bad for the UK overall?

Bad, definitely bad. Right now we have a minority-elected Tory government field-stripping away our rights & legal protections with breath-taking abandon:

1. Unions can only authorise strike action if they have a majority in favour from every member of that union (basically not-voting or not returning your ballot will count as a 'no' to industrial action); where the Tories gained a Parliamentary majority on 37% of the vote (and that's rounding up).
2. The Tories have recently redefined what child poverty is; and then claimed they're dealing with the problem. They aren't.
3. They've also redefined what constitutes a 'living wage'. They're now telling us the living wage will be £7.20 - whereas the Living Wage Foundation's calculations show that the actual living wage should be £8.25. It's also worth pointing out that the Conservative Party's new living wage only applies to over-25s. Apparently under-25s aren't as productive as us older folks.

Was the deal offered by the EU to the UK and addressing UK concerns with the organisation sufficient to keep the UK in:

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/p...02/02-letter-tusk-proposal-new-settlement-uk/

I've not read it yet, but knowing Cameron the deal will be hollow and change little.

Quite frankly, I think Cameron is bluffing about being pro-EU and is deliberately sucking at putting a positive case forward so the Eurosceptic side looks stronger. The UK is a net contributor towards the EU; but Cameron, despite being allegedly in favour of retaining our membership, did not dip into the EU's flood relief fund to help people in England hit by the flooding at the end of last year/beginning of this year. Seems like he's paying lip service to the benefits without actually using them.

 

[mindlight]

What about the rest of us? We're not all English, you know. It'd be such a shame if Scotland, Wales and/or Northern Ireland were to be dragged out of the EU even though we wanted to stay in.

I should have said British and especially since I myself am part English, part Welsh and part Scottish. If Britain as a whole votes to leave and Scotland to stay then I think that would force a new Scottish referendum to give Scottish people the possibility of opting back into Europe.

 

[mindlight]

I may be understanding it wrong, but it seems as though any citizen of a Commonwealth country, including India, can vote in British elections: http://www.electoralcommission.org....-is-eligible-to-vote-at-a-uk-general-election

Yes that is a long list and includes India. But to actually register to vote you need to have an address in the UK from which you are a registered tax payer. You need a National Insurance number also. So in other words you would have to be a Commonwealth national who is resident in the UK and paid taxes there which disqualifies the vast majority.

But this issue is causing controversy as apparently 1.5 million Commonwealth and Irish nationals qualify and most will probably be inclined to vote to stay

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...-voting-in-EU-referendum-says-new-report.html

 

[The Emperor of Mankind]

I've always found it funny that Scotland wanted to be 'independent', and yet still remain a subject of the European superstate.

There are several key differences between being in the Parliamentary Union and the European Union. The European Parliament is fully elected, unlike Westminster. Despite bluster from the Eurosceptics about how Brussels "makes all our laws", it doesn't. Westminster has more influence on our laws than the European Union by far. Europe sets the standards which our laws, as a member, must measure up to. It's then up to individual states' governments to hammer out the details.

I'd rather be within an organisation where the head position of that organisation changes hands between members every few years, rather than an unequal Union with one member having all the power all the time (in the UK, that's England). It's not your fault you have a bigger population and subsequently more seats; that's just how the lines were drawn on the map. We don't hate you for it. What we don't like though, is our interests and problems always taking a back-seat to yours. That isn't right or fair, especially since we allegedly have an equal voice in the Union same as yours.

Further, the Tories are restrained by both the European Convention, and the European Court on Human Rights from reducing us (all of us in the UK, not just Scotland) to serfdom - something they're trying hard to do. If we leave Europe, those fetters are stripped away and we won't be able to do a thing to stop them from doing whatever they want. And all the extra expenses their business buddies rack up as a result of leaving the Free Trade Area can be recouped by stripping away regulations and annoyances like minimum wage legislation.

The EU is a large bureaucratic undemocratic mess that strips away Britain's sovereignty over her own borders and laws.

It's an organisation responsible for maintaining free trade & movement (and all the resulting issues such as consistent quality of goods across member states, workers' rights etc). Of course it's going to be bureaucratic as hell; how else do you expect it to function? As to the "undemocratic mess", it's a tad more democratic than Westminster; where one entire chamber of lawmakers is completely unelected and is not accountable to anyone. Case in point? During the indyref the Lords removed the ability of Holyrood to renew funding for renewables projects in Scotland: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2013-2014/0133/en/14133en.pdf

Further, we (that is to say, the UK) voted in favour of being part of this free trade & movement organisation.

I believe at least in the long run it will certainly be good for Britain to be an independent country again and settle her own affairs.

In what way considering the EU doesn't interfere in UK law on anywhere near the level the Eurosceptics claim it does.

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/RP10-62

The link above has a pdf file attached. The main object of interest there is the table headed "New laws affecting the UK". Quickest way to get to it is to click on section 6 "Studies in other member states" on the contents page; and the table in question it's right above the beginning of that section.

The deal is very much insufficient, but I suspect politicians could do a good job of spinning it into a good deal and persuading people to stay in with the usual scaremongering.

On that we can agree. It's all politicians seem to be good for.

If Britain leaves, that poses a serious threat to the continued existence of the EU, which is great. The eurosceptics are already doing well in France, with Britain gone there will be a big surge in euroscepticism across Europe, I don't believe the EU will be able to stay together.

Why is that great? You said you're undecided but it doesn't sound like it to me.