Venturing A Prediction

[LuisDantas]

I've thought about this, too. Israel was apparently warned by Egypt about Hamas' planned attack beforehand, and perhaps allowed it to happen so they would have an excuse/justification to take such drastic and wide-sweeping action. Also, I was also wondering what Hamas actually hoped to achieve with their attack and what sort of reaction they expected from Israel. What strategic value is there in burning and decapitating babies (assuming such reports are true)?

Much as I would like not to, I have to wonder whether the reverse perspective is valid.

Even today it is not clear what Hamas and whoever has been supporting it (there is some circunstantial indication that it received significant resources from abroad, IIRC) expected to achieve with this conflict.

Maybe it was to either hurt Netanyahu's current government's credibility or to force its hand instead? Because that is pretty much guaranteed. There isn't a third option. Perhaps there is a significant number of people that expect or hope that once this Israel government falls something in some way better will arise in its place.

I would not be so optimistic, myself.

 

[Revoltingest]

Yeah I don’t think Israel intentionally let Hamas attack them. That’s ludicrous

Sure...but it does have explanatory power.
Sacrifice a thousand or so Israelis, & get....
- Rid of political challenges to an authoritarian regime.
- Opportunity to evict & kill Gazans.
- Ownership of Gaza.

 

[Jimmy]

Sure...but it does have explanatory power.
Sacrifice a thousand or so Israelis, & get....
- Rid of political challenges to an authoritarian regime.
- Opportunity to evict & kill Gazans.
- Ownership of Gaza.

No

 

[LuisDantas]

I know it wouldn't be an ideal solution, but perhaps Egypt and Sudan could allow Palestinians to settle Bir Tawil since neither wish to claim it.

Sounds unlikely to me, and, yes, less than ideal and perhaps not even a solution at all.

First of all, it is not clear that there is any infrastructure in the region. It is not unclaimed for no reason. Hoping that it could somehow sustain the survival of some significant fraction of about two million people requires a lot of hope indeed, particularly when we know that it would be politically difficult for anyone to lend them support.

Then there is the matter of simply moving so many people. It would be a major good will effort to transport so many people there even if they are willing to, which is again less than clear.

To boot, that is a landlocked region, meaning that they would have no access to the sea and therefore require going through either egyptian or sudanese territory to even arrive or leave at all. I don't expect that either of those two governments is looking forward to dealing with those added responsibilities and potential complications.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

Here’s a counter prediction. Eventually, the vast mass of the human population in the region, Arab and Israeli, gets sick of all the killing, and refuses to listen anymore to the siren voices calling for more bloodshed. Courageous leadership arises among all the disparate religious, political and national identities, and a peaceful resolution is finally arrived at.

I admit this looks a long way off at the moment. But before dismissing it as an impossibility, remember that it happened in Northern Ireland.

La vie en rose, I'm thinking.

 

[Father Heathen]

It is not unclaimed for no reason.

From what I understand there is a dispute between Egypt and Sudan on how their border is drawn, and claiming Bir Tawil means conceding to how the other perceives the border's line. Beyond that, I don't no much about it. Perhaps it wouldn't be feasible; it was just an idle thought about alternatives to the bloody conflict.

 

[PureX]

I'm bad at predicting anything but general trends.
But I'm going out on a limb here.
Treat it as a speculation.

Israel is using the Hamas attack as an opportunity.
A) Rid Gaza of all Palestinians by capture, exile, or death.
B) Cement authoritarian control in Israel.
C) Expand into & settle Gaza.
D) Use political power in USA to thwart any country
that threatens the plan.

Seems to me these have been the goals all along.

But letting the attack happen on purpose is hard to believe.

 

[Revoltingest]

Seems to me these have been the goals all along.

But letting the attack happen on purpose is hard to believe.

If Hamas can brutally sacrifice innocents for a cause,
then so can Israel's government. After all, they're both
human, with all the attendant failings.
Partisans tend to identify their own side as moral, & the
other as evil. This ignores both sides being people who
deserve human rights. It justifies mass murder.

This war should be viewed from the perspective of
solving the conflict, not blaming one side or the other.

 

[PureX]

If Hamas can brutally sacrifice innocents for a cause,
then so can Israel's government. After all, they're both
human, with all the attendant failings.
Partisans tend to identify their own side as moral, & the
other as evil. This ignores both sides being people who
deserve human rights. It justifies mass murder.

The gigantic problem with this false equivalence is that Israel has a massive military and global support while Hamas has no organized military and very little outside support. The two could not be more UN-equal in terms of their ability to fight, and therefor the methods they would choose to use.

The strong force of course wants the weak force to come out into the open and be immediately destroyed without the bad look of lots of dead bystanders. While the weak force has no choice but to hide however and wherever it can, to keep attacking the strong force hoping for a "death by a thousand cuts". Because that is the only possible fight it can pose.

So one side has no option but to risk the lives of their own people, while the other has the great luxury of NOT doing so. Which is why I find it hard to accept that Israel would do so.

 

[Revoltingest]

The gigantic problem with this false equivalence....

I made nothing equivalent.
Does someone train you lefties to always cry....
"False equivalence!"

...is that Israel has a massive military and global support while Hamas has no organized military and very little outside support. The two could not be more UN-equal in terms of their ability to fight, and therefor the methods they would choose to use.

The strong force of course wants the weak force to come out into the open and be immediately destroyed without the bad look of lots of dead bystanders. While the weak force has no choice but to hide however and wherever it can, to keep attacking the strong force hoping for a "death by a thousand cuts". Because that is the only possible fight it can pose.

So one side has no option but to risk the lives of their own people, while the other has the great luxury of NOT doing so. Which is why I find it hard to accept that Israel would do so.

You, like many, find Muslims, Hamas, & other
demonized groups to be capable of great evil.
"You can't reason with those people!"
But never those you side with.
"They'd never do that!"
No matter what side, all are humans capable
of the same failings.

 

[RestlessSoul]

La vie en rose, I'm thinking.

Never give in to despair, I’m thinking.

 

[PureX]

You, like many, find Muslims, Hamas, & other
demonized groups to be capable of great evil.
"You can't reason with those people!"
But never those you side with.
"They'd never do that!"
No matter what side, all are humans capable
of the same failings.

Did Bush (Chaney) allow 9/11 to happen? Maybe, but I doubt it. Did the Israelis allow this attack to happen? Maybe, but I doubt it. The dominant power doesn't need to be attacked, and deliberately sacrifice it's own people illegitimately to justify attacking the weaker. It can do so as it pleases, as 'might makes right'.

 

[Revoltingest]

Did Bush (Chaney) allow 9/11 to happen? Maybe, but I doubt it.

I don't see how there was anything to be gained by it for Bush.
We got no territory, unlike Israel's potentially getting Gaza.
Bush wasn't on the verge of losing political power.

Did the Israelis allow this attack to happen? Maybe, but I doubt it.

I don't think so either.

The dominant power doesn't need to be attacked, and deliberately sacrifice it's own people illegitimately to justify attacking the weaker. It can do so as it pleases, as 'might makes right'.

When Hamas killed over 1,000 Israelis, it
justified (per some) vengeance in spades.
Several eyes for an eye, one could say.

 

[Little Dragon]

I've insufficient info to say more than speculate about possibilities.

It's certainly a possible hypothetical scenario. I am not sure Israeli citizens would be at all pleased to learn that their government had effectively aided and abetted the slaughter of their own people. That would not be a vote winner. So, yes plausible. However I suspect that the hand of Wagner and thus Putin, is mucho more likely to be behind this recent escalation, after all, it benefits them most. Not Israel. Surrounded as she is by enemy states...

 

[Revoltingest]

It's certainly a possible hypothetical scenario. I am not sure Israeli citizens would be at all pleased to learn that their government had effectively aided and abetted the slaughter of their own people.

I imagine that Palestinians loathe their own
slaughter caused by Hams's attack.
Victims all around...albeit, mostly Palestinians.

That would not be a vote winner. So, yes plausible. However I suspect that the hand of Wagner and thus Putin, is mucho more likely to be behind this recent escalation, after all, it benefits them most. Not Israel. Surrounded as she is by enemy states...

If news were leaked that Israel's government
planned it all, it would indeed be a problem.
Such a secret would be hard to keep, which
makes it an unlikely scenario.

 

[Orbit]

This is concerning (from today):

"The Israel Defense Forces says two rockets were launched from Syria at northern Israel earlier, setting off sirens in the Golan Heights town of Avnei Eitan.


The IDF says both rockets landed in open areas, causing no damage.


Separately, the IDF says it launched an Iron Dome missile at a “suspicious target” that entered Israeli airspace from Lebanon, but further details are under investigation.


The second incident set off an alarm in the northern town of Alma, close to the Lebanon border.


Israel has traded fire with Hezbollah and allied Palestinian factions several times in Lebanon in recent days, which have included rocket fire and drones being launched at Israel."

A more recent story includes an account of Israel bombing the airport in Aleppo, Syria in retaliation today. I really hope this doesn't become a area-wide conflagration.

Story from: Gaza rockets target central Israel; hostages’ families say government forsaking them

 

[England my lionheart]

I'm bad at predicting anything but general trends.
But I'm going out on a limb here.
Treat it as a speculation.

Israel is using the Hamas attack as an opportunity.
A) Rid Gaza of all Palestinians by capture, exile, or death.
B) Cement authoritarian control in Israel.
C) Expand into & settle Gaza.
D) Use political power in USA to thwart any country
that threatens the plan.

It explains how some occurrences could be related.
1) The monumental failure to detect Hamas's attack..
2) Cutting off Gaza's food & utilities.
3) Warning Gazans to leave or die.
4) Giving them inadequate time to do it.
5) Destroying escape routes.

I've low confidence that #1 was intentional....merely possible.
But #2 thru #4 appear more likely to be inspired by Rahm
Emanuel, ie, "never let a crisis go to waste".

Caution:
This might be controversial.
Play nice, people.

I predict,based on history that Hamas doesn’t care about the palestian people and neither do Jordan Egypt Syria and will continue to not care,it’s the same old song really,Hamas commits acts of terrorism then acts the victim and using civilians for propaganda.

 

[Revoltingest]

I predict,based on history that Hamas doesn’t care about the palestian people and neither do Jordan Egypt Syria and will continue to not care,it’s the same old song really,Hamas commits acts of terrorism then acts the victim and using civilians for propaganda.

I reject the notion that it's up to Egypt, Syria, & other Islamic
countries to cure the problem resulting from Israel's brutal
treatment of Palestinians. Hams is they symptom, not the
problem. Israel is the source...the 500 pound gorilla in the
region, so I give them responsibility to cure their own
behavior for the betterment of everyone, including
their own country.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

I'm bad at predicting anything but general trends.
But I'm going out on a limb here.
Treat it as a speculation.

Israel is using the Hamas attack as an opportunity.
A) Rid Gaza of all Palestinians by capture, exile, or death.
B) Cement authoritarian control in Israel.
C) Expand into & settle Gaza.
D) Use political power in USA to thwart any country
that threatens the plan.

It explains how some occurrences could be related.
1) The monumental failure to detect Hamas's attack..
2) Cutting off Gaza's food & utilities.
3) Warning Gazans to leave or die.
4) Giving them inadequate time to do it.
5) Destroying escape routes.

I've low confidence that #1 was intentional....merely possible.
But #2 thru #4 appear more likely to be inspired by Rahm
Emanuel, ie, "never let a crisis go to waste".

Caution:
This might be controversial.
Play nice, people.

I don't know where it's going to go, so your predictions mean little to me.

But I notice that you ascribe a motive to Israel, but not to Hamas. And it seems to me that if I look at Hamas actions on that first day -- the indiscriminate barbarity of so many of their actions; rape, beheadings, burning of music festival goers in their cars, killing of children in front of their parents, kidnapping grandparents and infants, even recording much of this and posting it on social media themselves for all to see! -- suggest a motive to me: to turn everyone's thoughts away from Israeli rapprochement with the Muslim world.

And you must know that this is how things have been going of late -- various Arab and Muslim nations finding ways to try and normalize relations with Israel, even going so far as to initiate trade agreements. But the Palestinians -- or at least the leaders in Gaza, Hamas -- see this as isolating themselves forever, with no future path to their own state. Even now, as they've been ordered out of the north of Gaza by the Israelis, where will they go? Egypt won't have them.

And key to my thoughts here are that while Israel has told them to leave (on very short notice, to be sure), Hamas is ordering those in north Gaza to stay where they are -- even though Hamas knows full-well that the more that remain, the more will die.

Figure those thoughts into your prediction, and let's see where we go from there.

 

[Revoltingest]

I don't know where it's going to go, so your predictions mean little to me.

They mean little to me also.

But I notice that you ascribe a motive to Israel, but not to Hamas.

You must've missed it.
I've posted what I think Hamas was trying to achieve.
But that too is just speculation, although with higher
confidence.

And it seems to me that if I look at Hamas actions on that first day -- the indiscriminate barbarity of so many of their actions; rape, beheadings, burning of music festival goers in their cars, killing of children in front of their parents, kidnapping grandparents and infants, even recording much of this and posting it on social media themselves for all to see! -- suggest a motive to me: to turn everyone's thoughts away from Israeli rapprochement with the Muslim world.

And you must know that this is how things have been going of late -- various Arab and Muslim nations finding ways to try and normalize relations with Israel, even going so far as to initiate trade agreements. But the Palestinians -- or at least the leaders in Gaza, Hamas -- see this as isolating themselves forever, with no future path to their own state. Even now, as they've been ordered out of the north of Gaza by the Israelis, where will they go? Egypt won't have them.

Perhaps Hamas wants to scuttle normalization.

And key to my thoughts here are that while Israel has told them to leave (on very short notice, to be sure), Hamas is ordering those in north Gaza to stay where they are -- even though Hamas knows full-well that the more that remain, the more will die.

Figure those thoughts into your prediction, and let's see where we go from there.

Perhaps Hamas wants Palestinians to resist
more. And in doing so, show how brutal
Israel is.
You've criticized Hamas for their brutal
murders, but Israel has killed even more.
Does it get a pass because its killings are
less up close & personal, eg, missiles, bombs?
Israel's approach is more sanitary...done at
a distance, & with less barbarism.
As I see it, the relative death toll is more
significant than the means to kill.