Was it just a Coincidece? What are the odds?

[TransmutingSoul]

I was reflecting on how the Baha'i Faith started and had the thought that it raised a very compelling question. From the science perspective it would be the maths.

So the scenario is this.

The Bab declared on the evening of May 23rd 1844. The purpose of the Message of the Bab was to prepare humanity for "One Whom God would make Manifest".

On that same evening was born a male child that was destined to bury the remains of the Bab on Mount Carmel and head the faith started by the Bab.

The child was Abdul'baha, the son of Baha’u’llah, who in 1863 declared he was the one the Bab intended.

Also on the day that dawned after the evening of May 23rd 1844, in America, Samuel Morse had built a telegraph system from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore and on May 24, 1844, the first message was sent, “What hath God wrought?”

So, that is the most amazing coincidences, what would be the mathematical probability of such coincidences, that they are mere coincidences and not part of a intelligent plan?



Regards Tony

 

[The Hammer]

Afaik there is no way to calculate the odds. Mostly because the two aren't related.

 

[Altfish]

I was reflecting on how the Baha'i Faith started and had the thought that it raised a very compelling question. From the science perspective it would be the maths.

So the scenario is this.

The Bab declared on the evening of May 23rd 1844. The purpose of the Message of the Bab was to prepare humanity for "One Whom God would make Manifest".

On that same evening was born a male child that was destined to bury the remains of the Bab on Mount Carmel and head the faith started by the Bab.

The child was Abdul'baha, the son of Baha’u’llah, who in 1863 declared he was the one the Bab intended.

Also on the day that dawned after the evening of May 23rd 1844, in America, Samuel Morse had built a telegraph system from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore and on May 24, 1844, the first message was sent, “What hath God wrought?”

So, that is the most amazing coincidences, what would be the mathematical probability of such coincidences, that they are mere coincidences and not part of a intelligent plan?

View attachment 60231

Regards Tony

Every week someone wins a 1,000,000 to 1 against lottery ... what is the chance?

 

[Augustus]

So, that is the most amazing coincidences, what would be the mathematical probability of such coincidences, that they are mere coincidences and not part of a intelligent plan?

You are looking at probability the wrong way. Something with a probability of 1 in 1 million should happen to us every week or so (thinking of a random song and it suddenly starts playing on the radio, etc.).

The odds of 2 specific, named things happening may be very small, but the odds of anything happening that could, post-facto, be deemed a remarkable coincidence is actually not that much of a long shot.

An example:

"The headline of a 1990 New York Times article reads as follows: '1-in-a-Trillion Coincidence’ The article goes on to report a seemingly unbelievable coincidence about a woman who won the New Jersey lottery twice within four months, a feat originally reported as a 1 in 17 trillion long shot. Research on coincidences by two Harvard statisticians revealed, however, that the odds of such an event happening to someone somewhere in the United States were more like 1 in 30--not that amazing after all. They explain that this is an example of the law of very large numbers: 'With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen.' Out of the millions upon millions of people who regularly purchase lottery tickets in the United States, it is not unreasonable that someone should at some point hit the lottery twice." NN Taleb - The Black Swan

 

[TransmutingSoul]

Afaik there is no way to calculate the odds. Mostly because the two aren't related.

Thanks for that. I was good at maths way back in the 70's.

My thought is they are related. But that may be just faith speaking?

Regards Tony

 

[TransmutingSoul]

Every week someone wins a 1,000,000 to 1 against lottery ... what is the chance?

I am thinking the odds are far greater, in lotto the odds are known. I know I have 100% chance of not winning. I do not play lotto.

Regards Tony

 

[TransmutingSoul]

You are looking at probability the wrong way. Something with a probability of 1 in 1 million should happen to us every week or so (thinking of a random song and it suddenly starts playing on the radio, etc.).

The odds of 2 specific, named things happening may be very small, but the odds of anything happening that could, post-facto, be deemed a remarkable coincidence is actually not that much of a long shot.

An example:

"The headline of a 1990 New York Times article reads as follows: '1-in-a-Trillion Coincidence’ The article goes on to report a seemingly unbelievable coincidence about a woman who won the New Jersey lottery twice within four months, a feat originally reported as a 1 in 17 trillion long shot. Research on coincidences by two Harvard statisticians revealed, however, that the odds of such an event happening to someone somewhere in the United States were more like 1 in 30--not that amazing after all. They explain that this is an example of the law of very large numbers: 'With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen.' Out of the millions upon millions of people who regularly purchase lottery tickets in the United States, it is not unreasonable that someone should at some point hit the lottery twice." NN Taleb - The Black Swan

Thanks for the reply. I seems I have to rethink the scenario, as to what can be determined by maths?

Then maybe all life is based on such coincidences and mathematical probabilities?

Regards Tony

 

[Revoltingest]

I was reflecting on how the Baha'i Faith started and had the thought that it raised a very compelling question. From the science perspective it would be the maths.

So the scenario is this.

The Bab declared on the evening of May 23rd 1844. The purpose of the Message of the Bab was to prepare humanity for "One Whom God would make Manifest".

On that same evening was born a male child that was destined to bury the remains of the Bab on Mount Carmel and head the faith started by the Bab.

The child was Abdul'baha, the son of Baha’u’llah, who in 1863 declared he was the one the Bab intended.

Also on the day that dawned after the evening of May 23rd 1844, in America, Samuel Morse had built a telegraph system from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore and on May 24, 1844, the first message was sent, “What hath God wrought?”

So, that is the most amazing coincidences, what would be the mathematical probability of such coincidences, that they are mere coincidences and not part of a intelligent plan?

View attachment 60231

Regards Tony

There is a high probability...a certainty that there will
be amazing coincidences now & then. It's cuz there
are nearly an infinite number that could occur. The
vast majority just never happen. The ones that do
only seem improbable. This is cuz one coincidence
considered in advance & separately from others
would indeed be improbable. But looking at them
after they occur creates the illusion of improbability.

 

[Trailblazer]

I was reflecting on how the Baha'i Faith started and had the thought that it raised a very compelling question. From the science perspective it would be the maths.

So the scenario is this.

The Bab declared on the evening of May 23rd 1844. The purpose of the Message of the Bab was to prepare humanity for "One Whom God would make Manifest".

On that same evening was born a male child that was destined to bury the remains of the Bab on Mount Carmel and head the faith started by the Bab.

The child was Abdul'baha, the son of Baha’u’llah, who in 1863 declared he was the one the Bab intended.

Also on the day that dawned after the evening of May 23rd 1844, in America, Samuel Morse had built a telegraph system from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore and on May 24, 1844, the first message was sent, “What hath God wrought?”

So, that is the most amazing coincidences, what would be the mathematical probability of such coincidences, that they are mere coincidences and not part of a intelligent plan?

View attachment 60231

Regards Tony

No, I do not think it was a coincidence. Then again, I am a Baha'i.
I do not believe that what happened after that was a coincidence either. What are the chances?

What hath God Wrought? 24 May 1844

We live in the most remarkable of times. The transformation of the material conditions of humanity has a cause. Do we really believe that the human beings who came before us were incapable of what we see in the world today? Great civilizations have come before in history – yet none of them broke out of the same reality that has existed since the dawn of agriculture.

It is only in this time that humanity has passed into an entirely new reality. It has a cause. A cause larger than humanity itself.

In 1844, in Shiraz, the Bab, Baha’u’llah’s immediate forerunner, spoke these words:

The secret of the Day that is to come is now concealed. It can neither be divulged nor estimated. The newly born babe of that Day excels the wisest and most venerable men of this time, and the lowliest and most unlearned of that period shall surpass in understanding the most erudite and accomplished divines of this age.[1]

 

[Revoltingest]

These are the most famous coincidences that I can recall.
Many people read great significance into them.
Lincoln–Kennedy coincidences urban legend - Wikipedia

 

[TransmutingSoul]

There is a high probability...a certainty that there will
be amazing coincidences now & then. It's cuz there
are nearly an infinite number that could occur. The
vast majority just never happen. The ones that do
only seem improbable. This is cuz one coincidence
considered in advance & separately from others
would indeed be improbable. But looking at them
after they occur creates the illusion of improbability.

I am considering that the coincidences are not unplanned. It could be they are a sign of an intelligent system, that knows our mind and what path we choose for our own selves.

Regards Tony

 

[Revoltingest]

I am considering that the coincidences are not unplanned. It could be they are a sign of an intelligent system, that knows our mind and what path we choose for our own selves.

Regards Tony

Or they're just random happenings that we impose meaning upon.

 

[TransmutingSoul]

Or they're just random happenings that we impose meaning upon.

It could be, but what was not random is that the Bab declared that he was from God, that is a recorded event as was the predictions of someone else to come.

I also consider that In past scriptures it is said on that day knowledge shall be increased.

What I am offering is that there is ample other evidence we can look at to see if it was a coincidence or if it was preplanned. That is where I see science needs to contribute, but I am not sure how it can yet.

Hopefully this discussion will open up some ideas.

Regards Tony

 

[GardenLady]

What were the odds that my husband and I would run into our son-in-law's mom and dad on the Royal Mile in Edinburgh? We had all been in London the week before as part of a common group, but then we all went our own ways. There was no coordination, no reason to think we'd run into them.

The odds don't really matter. It happened.

 

[Twilight Hue]

I was reflecting on how the Baha'i Faith started and had the thought that it raised a very compelling question. From the science perspective it would be the maths.

So the scenario is this.

The Bab declared on the evening of May 23rd 1844. The purpose of the Message of the Bab was to prepare humanity for "One Whom God would make Manifest".

On that same evening was born a male child that was destined to bury the remains of the Bab on Mount Carmel and head the faith started by the Bab.

The child was Abdul'baha, the son of Baha’u’llah, who in 1863 declared he was the one the Bab intended.

Also on the day that dawned after the evening of May 23rd 1844, in America, Samuel Morse had built a telegraph system from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore and on May 24, 1844, the first message was sent, “What hath God wrought?”

So, that is the most amazing coincidences, what would be the mathematical probability of such coincidences, that they are mere coincidences and not part of a intelligent plan?

View attachment 60231

Regards Tony

In order to calculate odds there must be a prior result.

Just because something went a certain way only means it's 1.

Even I can throw infinite probabilities with a handful of rice into a pan noting what arrangement it falls in.

It really means nothing.

 

[night912]

I was reflecting on how the Baha'i Faith started and had the thought that it raised a very compelling question. From the science perspective it would be the maths.

So the scenario is this.

The Bab declared on the evening of May 23rd 1844. The purpose of the Message of the Bab was to prepare humanity for "One Whom God would make Manifest".

On that same evening was born a male child that was destined to bury the remains of the Bab on Mount Carmel and head the faith started by the Bab.

The child was Abdul'baha, the son of Baha’u’llah, who in 1863 declared he was the one the Bab intended.

Also on the day that dawned after the evening of May 23rd 1844, in America, Samuel Morse had built a telegraph system from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore and on May 24, 1844, the first message was sent, “What hath God wrought?”

So, that is the most amazing coincidences, what would be the mathematical probability of such coincidences, that they are mere coincidences and not part of a intelligent plan?


Regards Tony

Maybe it wasn't a coincidence, and it was part of an intelligent plan. Maybe two people intelligently planned out the story making sure that their story correctly matched with the date of birth?

 

[TransmutingSoul]

Maybe it wasn't a coincidence, and it was part of an intelligent plan. Maybe two people intelligently planned out the story making sure that their story correctly matched with the date of birth?

The Bab and Baha'u'llah never met in their earthly life.

Interestingly, in a spiritual sense they were both born of the Holy Spirit, born of the light of God.

Regards Tony

 

[joelr]

I was reflecting on how the Baha'i Faith started and had the thought that it raised a very compelling question. From the science perspective it would be the maths.

So the scenario is this.

The Bab declared on the evening of May 23rd 1844. The purpose of the Message of the Bab was to prepare humanity for "One Whom God would make Manifest".

On that same evening was born a male child that was destined to bury the remains of the Bab on Mount Carmel and head the faith started by the Bab.

The child was Abdul'baha, the son of Baha’u’llah, who in 1863 declared he was the one the Bab intended.

Also on the day that dawned after the evening of May 23rd 1844, in America, Samuel Morse had built a telegraph system from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore and on May 24, 1844, the first message was sent, “What hath God wrought?”

So, that is the most amazing coincidences, what would be the mathematical probability of such coincidences, that they are mere coincidences and not part of a intelligent plan?



Regards Tony

It's a rather mundane coincidence? You are spinning it like it's something unusual.
On May 23rd 1844 he announces he is the messenger of God. Seems like the inspiration of having a son might do that? Are sons often around to bury their fathers? Yes.
Religious movements are springing up fairly often.

Yes on that day Samuel Morse tested his morse code. He said “What hath God wrought?” The reason he said it is because it's the Archaic form of the question "what has God made?", from the Bible, King James Version (Numbers 23:23); he's adding a bit of flair to the occasion.

When Mohammud or Joseph Smith announced their new covenant other disparate events may have happened that could be mistakenly tied to it to dramaticize.

Really Bab has a son, a big event and was exicited and announced he's getting magic messages. His son buried him because sons do that. Somewhere else something non-related happened and someone invoked a different religion (people do that constantly).
The probablity = that's life. Stuff happens, sometimes you can tie things together but they actually are not connected.

Yet Bab still couldn't have made any clear statements to offer proof of ANYTHING beyond the capabilities of a human who writes? He didn't say "God just told me Morse said this....."
He didn't say "Filmore will be the 13th President of the US because of a sudden
death". He didn't say "America will win the America cup yacht race in 51"
He didn't say, beware of the "Potato Famine" coming NEXT YEAR in Ireland! Prepare canned goods!
HE didn't predict a sewing machine in 2 years?

So, no it is barely a coincidence.

But also, no God magic at the trial or execution? Or resurrection? Are these not generally required for verification? It's not strange that the one religion by revelation without miracles is the one people witnessed in modern times?
Then, " Within 20 years of the Báb's death, over 25 people claimed to be the Promised One, most significantly Baháʼu'lláh."
there it is. 25 people were claiming to be the next messenger. You believe in one of them, So 24 people were willing to lie. And you still can't see the issues here? 24 people said, "yeah, I get God messages too, it's me, yup, no doubt........???????????

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

I was reflecting on how the Baha'i Faith started and had the thought that it raised a very compelling question. From the science perspective it would be the maths.

So the scenario is this.

The Bab declared on the evening of May 23rd 1844. The purpose of the Message of the Bab was to prepare humanity for "One Whom God would make Manifest".

On that same evening was born a male child that was destined to bury the remains of the Bab on Mount Carmel and head the faith started by the Bab.

The child was Abdul'baha, the son of Baha’u’llah, who in 1863 declared he was the one the Bab intended.

Also on the day that dawned after the evening of May 23rd 1844, in America, Samuel Morse had built a telegraph system from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore and on May 24, 1844, the first message was sent, “What hath God wrought?”

So, that is the most amazing coincidences, what would be the mathematical probability of such coincidences, that they are mere coincidences and not part of a intelligent plan?

View attachment 60231

Regards Tony

I'm not entirely sure what you mean.

What is the supposed "coincidence"?

 

[Trailblazer]

I'm not entirely sure what you mean.

What is the supposed "coincidence"?

Also on the day that dawned after the evening of May 23rd 1844, in America, Samuel Morse had built a telegraph system from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore and on May 24, 1844, the first message was sent, “What hath God wrought?”

The Bab declared on the evening of May 23rd 1844. The purpose of the Message of the Bab was to prepare humanity for "One Whom God would make Manifest".