What will happen to organized religion in the next 50 years?

[work in progress]

I'm just old enough to remember what it was like 50 years ago. All stores and businesses were closed on Sunday (shopping on Sunday was unheard of). The entire populace of the small town I lived in at the time would get up early Sunday morning, put on their best duds and trot off to one of a number of services held concurrently in all of the local churches throughout the day. The services themselves were mostly packed houses, it was important to arrive early so as not to suffer the indignity of finding only standing room at the back of the hall.

Since that time the number of churches has grown dramatically, reaching a saturation point it seems about 20 years ago with the last church building boom. Today, a great deal of attrition has taken place, congregation amalgamation is common, the fewer services held on Sundays are generally attended by audiences a fraction of the size of a few decades ago. Casual wear has replaced the suits and dresses of our parents. Church buildings quite often become available on the local real estate market.

Are we witnessing the death knell of this type of worship? If the current trends continue what will organized religion look like in 50 years?

No, we are not witnessing the end of restrictive, fundamentalist religion, and I would guess that your confidence that religion will eventually die out is coming from the presumption that the present trends will continue another 50 years from now in the future.

The problem is: first -- it has been the most liberal and progressive forms of Christianity that have suffered the greatest declines. I'll make one notable exception -- the Unitarian/Universalist churches which are so free of mandatory dogma that they don't really qualify as Christian anymore, are either maintaining their numbers or growing in a number of locations...especially in Bible Belt areas, where a lot of the non-fundie minority find them to be a suitable alternative. Otherwise, liberal Christianity seems to have suffered the greatest losses in our increasingly polarized world.

One thing I'd like a lot of my fellow atheist/agnostics to consider is that we are in a very precarious situation right now; because our entire world is about to enter a more dangerous stage (if it hasn't already where you may live) where border wars, civil wars, failed states and anarchy, are going to increase over the coming decades. And in a world where civilization itself is standing on a precipice, our science-based philosophies are going to be under attack from growing fundamentalisms from all sides. Our books might survive, but we are heading in to a dark ages where more people will turn to religion, while science will start going into decline....just like it did during the dark ages. During the last dark ages in Europe, the only institution that survived was the Church, and I expect the same thing will happen in the next one!

 

[Jacksnyte]

bigger doesn't necessarily mean better.

Texas will always refute that, though.

I resemble that remark!

 

[idea]

I have a lot of respect for all the good missionaries of any faith do to help people, however, I have a real problem with the strings often attached to such help. An example would be requiring people to attend Christian services in order to get help (food, medicine, education, etc.). This kind of behavior has destroyed many cultures around the globe.

not a believer in - you scratch my back, and I'll scratch yours? what's wrong with being expected to contribute? it can be humiliating/degrading to be given handouts like a beggar... and liberating to become a part of something larger than yourself where you are valued and appreciated for your contributions...

little red hen...

This being said, I forsee these practices tapering off as the 3rd world moves toward participation in the global community. Personally, I see a real possibility of personal spirituality eventually winning out over the large organized religious bodies within the next 30+ years.

what is the main point of spirituality? in Christianity, the #1 law / point of it, is to love... love is not something that happens in a group - not all on your own... hermits don't really learn how to love... it takes at least 2.

 

[Jacksnyte]

not a believer in - you scratch my back, and I'll scratch yours? what's wrong with being expected to contribute? it can be humiliating/degrading to be given handouts like a beggar... and liberating to become a part of something larger than yourself where you are valued and appreciated for your contributions...

little red hen...



what is the main point of spirituality? in Christianity, the #1 law / point of it, is to love... love is not something that happens in a group - not all on your own... hermits don't really learn how to love... it takes at least 2.

Love is nice, but a love that can destroy your culture within a very few short years is not necessarily a good thing. They aren't being asked to contribute, they are being coerced to convert.

 

[Gomeza]

I have a lot of respect for all the good missionaries of any faith do to help people, however, I have a real problem with the strings often attached to such help. An example would be requiring people to attend Christian services in order to get help (food, medicine, education, etc.). This kind of behavior has destroyed many cultures around the globe.
This being said, I forsee these practices tapering off as the 3rd world moves toward participation in the global community. Personally, I see a real possibility of personal spirituality eventually winning out over the large organized religious bodies within the next 30+ years.

Two things I can add to in your post: It can only be looked at it in practical terms, we must hope that traditional missionary work holding aid ransom for indoctrination is waning. We must also concede that religious organizations are in the field (boots on the ground), in places where no other organizations are.

And secondly: western cultures may shed a great number of their religious shackles in 3 short decades but in 30 years Islam may be at its summit in historical participation.

 

[Gomeza]

No, we are not witnessing the end of restrictive, fundamentalist religion, and I would guess that your confidence that religion will eventually die out is coming from the presumption that the present trends will continue another 50 years from now in the future.

The problem is: first -- it has been the most liberal and progressive forms of Christianity that have suffered the greatest declines. I'll make one notable exception -- the Unitarian/Universalist churches which are so free of mandatory dogma that they don't really qualify as Christian anymore, are either maintaining their numbers or growing in a number of locations...especially in Bible Belt areas, where a lot of the non-fundie minority find them to be a suitable alternative. Otherwise, liberal Christianity seems to have suffered the greatest losses in our increasingly polarized world.

One thing I'd like a lot of my fellow atheist/agnostics to consider is that we are in a very precarious situation right now; because our entire world is about to enter a more dangerous stage (if it hasn't already where you may live) where border wars, civil wars, failed states and anarchy, are going to increase over the coming decades. And in a world where civilization itself is standing on a precipice, our science-based philosophies are going to be under attack from growing fundamentalisms from all sides. Our books might survive, but we are heading in to a dark ages where more people will turn to religion, while science will start going into decline....just like it did during the dark ages. During the last dark ages in Europe, the only institution that survived was the Church, and I expect the same thing will happen in the next one!

Yeah, but the smaller numbers of fundamentalists virtually insure that they will eventually be marginalized. Other voices are more and more becoming prominent, the growing chorus gaining volume from a moderate majority.

 

[rusra02]

I've never understood how someone can bridge so many obvious inconsistencies and be happy with their completely irrational conclusion. A one true religion existing in the midst of so many other religions today redefines your imaginary God as fallible, cruel and indifferent. Considering that your religion is only about 140 years old and relatively small with probably around 7 million adherents worldwide, this would mean that the vast majority of mankind has historically never been exposed to what you feel is the "one true religion".

Do you really think that a group comprising less than .01% of our species has gotten their man made religious constructs right and that all others have got it wrong?

I believe the Bible foretells the ascendancy of true religion during the last days. (Isaiah 2:1-4) Knowing the truth about God, and worshipping him "in spirit and truth" is not about numbers. Jesus told his followers: "Go in through the narrow gate; because broad and spacious is the road leading off into destruction, and many are the ones going through it; whereas narrow is the gate and cramped the road leading off into life, and few are the ones finding it." (Matthew 7:13,14)
During the first century, the early Christians were small in number, but accomplished a great preaching work that covered the then known world. Today, Jehovah's Christian witnesses preach about God's Kingdom in over 235 countries, last year spending over 1.5 billion hours collectively in doing so. They are the only group I know that teach the Bible from house to house, in imitation of the early Christians (Matthew 24:14, Acts 20:20)
I believe the God that is fallible, cruel, and worse is not the true God, but the false god who now rules this world, whose time is almost up. (1 John 5:19, Revelation 12:9)

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[Gomeza]

I believe the Bible foretells the ascendancy of true religion during the last days. (Isaiah 2:1-4) Knowing the truth about God, and worshipping him "in spirit and truth" is not about numbers. Jesus told his followers: "Go in through the narrow gate; because broad and spacious is the road leading off into destruction, and many are the ones going through it; whereas narrow is the gate and cramped the road leading off into life, and few are the ones finding it." (Matthew 7:13,14)
During the first century, the early Christians were small in number, but accomplished a great preaching work that covered the then known world. Today, Jehovah's Christian witnesses preach about God's Kingdom in over 235 countries, last year spending over 1.5 billion hours collectively in doing so. They are the only group I know that teach the Bible from house to house, in imitation of the early Christians (Matthew 24:14, Acts 20:20)
I believe the God that is fallible, cruel, and worse is not the true God, but the false god who now rules this world, whose time is almost up. (1 John 5:19, Revelation 12:9)

" . . . the false God who now rules this world, whose time is almost up. . . . " You sure seem to put a lot of stock in a poorly translated book written by primitive minded authors. I know the truth about God as well: he is imaginary, the sum total of mankind's wishful thinking. It is not possible for an imaginary being to rule anything let alone the world.

You have probably taken offense to what I have just said but I am going to suggest you take a step back and appreciate that you have just felt free to outline what you believe, I have merely done the same.

 

[idea]

I believe the Bible foretells the ascendancy of true religion during the last days. (Isaiah 2:1-4) Knowing the truth about God, and worshipping him "in spirit and truth" is not about numbers. Jesus told his followers: "Go in through the narrow gate; because broad and spacious is the road leading off into destruction, and many are the ones going through it; whereas narrow is the gate and cramped the road leading off into life, and few are the ones finding it." (Matthew 7:13,14)
During the first century, the early Christians were small in number, but accomplished a great preaching work that covered the then known world. Today, Jehovah's Christian witnesses preach about God's Kingdom in over 235 countries, last year spending over 1.5 billion hours collectively in doing so. They are the only group I know that teach the Bible from house to house, in imitation of the early Christians (Matthew 24:14, Acts 20:20)
I believe the God that is fallible, cruel, and worse is not the true God, but the false god who now rules this world, whose time is almost up. (1 John 5:19, Revelation 12:9)

Mormons and JW's have a lot in common (don't believe in the trinity, walk door to door all over the world)...

 

[Gomeza]

Mormons and JW's have a lot in common (don't believe in the trinity, walk door to door all over the world)...

I can testify to that. Living within a few blocks of a Temple and a Kingdom Hall insures that my neighborhood is crawling with them continually. There are a couple of other groups getting into the act locally but my sense is that they are from churches that are going broke attempting to rustle up subscription. The past year or so there seems to be another group at the door every week.

 

[idea]

I can testify to that. Living within a few blocks of a Temple and a Kingdom Hall insures that my neighborhood is crawling with them continually. There are a couple of other groups getting into the act locally but my sense is that they are from churches that are going broke attempting to rustle up subscription. The past year or so there seems to be another group at the door every week.

We have JW's that frequent our home, we have some fun conversations. I like the face-to-face chats, would rather missionaries at the door than other salesmen.

 

[Gomeza]

We have JW's that frequent our home, we have some fun conversations. I like the face-to-face chats, would rather missionaries at the door than other salesmen.

We have seen so many of them in the past year or so that I have developed and practiced a number of responses to them. Depending on mood and what time is allowed I greet them with anything from a feigned interest to some cruel shutdowns.

I did not invite them to make nuisances of themselves peddling nonsensical versions of ancient religious mythologies.

 

[beerisit]

I believe the Bible foretells the ascendancy of true religion during the last days. (Isaiah 2:1-4) Knowing the truth about God, and worshipping him "in spirit and truth" is not about numbers. Jesus told his followers: "Go in through the narrow gate; because broad and spacious is the road leading off into destruction, and many are the ones going through it; whereas narrow is the gate and cramped the road leading off into life, and few are the ones finding it." (Matthew 7:13,14)
During the first century, the early Christians were small in number, but accomplished a great preaching work that covered the then known world. Today, Jehovah's Christian witnesses preach about God's Kingdom in over 235 countries, last year spending over 1.5 billion hours collectively in doing so. They are the only group I know that teach the Bible from house to house, in imitation of the early Christians (Matthew 24:14, Acts 20:20)
I believe the God that is fallible, cruel, and worse is not the true God, but the false god who now rules this world, whose time is almost up. (1 John 5:19, Revelation 12:9)

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Does that mean that in a thousand years JW's will have to change their religion because theirs will be proven false? Simply by being that old?

 

[Gomeza]

Does that mean that in a thousand years JW's will have to change their religion because theirs will be proven false? Simply by being that old?

It is not likely that you will receive an attempt at an answer. It has always been my experience that those advancing preposterous claims of knowing God's desires aren't very adapt at answering tough questions. This inherent flaw in their reasoning ability being the primary reason that they are able to advance such preposterous claims in the first place.

 

[work in progress]

Yeah, but the smaller numbers of fundamentalists virtually insure that they will eventually be marginalized. Other voices are more and more becoming prominent, the growing chorus gaining volume from a moderate majority.

Ok, but my point would still be that fundamentalist religion dwindles in good times, and thrives in the bad times; and we are reaching the end of the good times. That's why I don't consider the stats on decline in organized religion to be of much value. Twenty years from now, organized religion will be a greater force everywhere in the World, because we are getting hit with a convergence of crises -- from climate to dwindling water supplies and food production to the until now, unrecognized problem of declines in many natural resources that have been essential for building and maintaining the civilization we have known for the last 150 years. And the wild card that gets tossed in when societies start dealing with scarcity, is that we see a rise in civil unrest and wars between nations accompanying the struggles for remaining resources. This is already happening in East Africa, and it will be a worldwide phenomena in the next 20 years, as the rest of the world has to seriously deal with feeding large populations during the decline and failure of green revolution agriculture.

I believe that fear, uncertainty and chaos are going to work to the advantage of the only institutions that are able to maintain their structures and loyalty of large populations during bad times. I don't believe that the places that are now considered bastions of secular humanism and rationality in Western Europe, will still have their comfortable standards of living and abundant social services available for the people.

 

[Gomeza]

Ok, but my point would still be that fundamentalist religion dwindles in good times, and thrives in the bad times; and we are reaching the end of the good times. That's why I don't consider the stats on decline in organized religion to be of much value. Twenty years from now, organized religion will be a greater force everywhere in the World, because we are getting hit with a convergence of crises -- from climate to dwindling water supplies and food production to the until now, unrecognized problem of declines in many natural resources that have been essential for building and maintaining the civilization we have known for the last 150 years. And the wild card that gets tossed in when societies start dealing with scarcity, is that we see a rise in civil unrest and wars between nations accompanying the struggles for remaining resources. This is already happening in East Africa, and it will be a worldwide phenomena in the next 20 years, as the rest of the world has to seriously deal with feeding large populations during the decline and failure of green revolution agriculture.

I believe that fear, uncertainty and chaos are going to work to the advantage of the only institutions that are able to maintain their structures and loyalty of large populations during bad times. I don't believe that the places that are now considered bastions of secular humanism and rationality in Western Europe, will still have their comfortable standards of living and abundant social services available for the people.

I cannot argue with the logic you have used to come to your conclusions, I do however disagree with your timeline and especially how it will affect you or I in the near future. We both live in a net oil exporting country with clean fresh water bubbling out of the ground almost everywhere. It is not likely that we will ever experience resource conflicts ourselves.

Yes it is true that people turn to religion in tough and trying times, the post 911 spike in membership of US evangelism is a prime example but you are ignoring an undeniable truth. People generally do not allow themselves to be re-indoctrinated into religion from a perspective of non belief.

I also cannot argue with the notion of global resource wars, our species will inevitably fight over that which is in short supply but the recent history of what seems like an escalation in regional conflict in certain parts of the world is a scenario that has repeated itself for centuries. I do not believe that we are at a point, despite a number of exceptions globally, of critical resource shortages. But again, I agree that this is inevitable.

My final point is derived from my initial post in this thread. There is a dramatic difference in both the appearance of religion and the overall influence it has on our societies between 50 years ago and today. The religious infrastructures that have declined so much over that time period will never regain their size or influence.

 

[rusra02]

Does that mean that in a thousand years JW's will have to change their religion because theirs will be proven false? Simply by being that old?

Jesus said regarding God's Word; "Your Word is truth." (John 17:17) What God has promised will unfailingly take place. Jehovah's witnesses believe God's promises, based on his past record of faithfully fulfilling his word. Thus, we believe our faith is based on "the accurate knowledge of the truth which accords with godly devotion upon the basis of a hope of the everlasting life which God, who cannot lie, promised before times long lasting, whereas in his own due time he made his word manifest in the preaching..under command of our Savior, God." (Titus 1:1-3) We believe that "This good news of [God's] kingdom will be preached in all the inhabited earth for a witness to all the nations; and then the end will come." (Matthew 24:14) We believe how a person responds to the Bible's message will determine their future (2 Thessalonians 1:6-10) Thus, in a thousand years, Jw's believe only true worshippers will be present on earth. (Isaiah 11:9)

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[rusra02]

We have seen so many of them in the past year or so that I have developed and practiced a number of responses to them. Depending on mood and what time is allowed I greet them with anything from a feigned interest to some cruel shutdowns.

I did not invite them to make nuisances of themselves peddling nonsensical versions of ancient religious mythologies.

It is not the intention of Jehovah's witnesses to make nuisances of themselves. To the contrary, Jw's freely give of their time and resources to share a message of comfort and hope with their neighbors, often at considerable personal expense. None of Jw's are paid to share the Bible's hope, but volunteer out of love for their neighbor and love for God. It seems to me the depth of impudent disrespect to mistreat such kind, inoffensive people. But Jesus said it would be so: "Happy are you when people reproach you and persecute you...rejoice and leap for joy...for in that way they persecuted the prophets prior to you." (Matthew 5:11,12)

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[beerisit]

The primary belief of the JW's:

"This good news of [God's] kingdom will be preached in all the inhabited earth for a witness to all the nations; and then the end will come."

Apparently you are the trigger for the end, according to your most deeply held beliefs

 

[Heathen Hammer]

But Jesus said it would be so: "Happy are you when people reproach you and persecute you...rejoice and leap for joy...for in that way they persecuted the prophets prior to you." (Matthew 5:11,12)

I must admit, this is a wise caveat to give to people, when one knows their beliefs will be ridiculed by those who stop to actually think about what is being preached. Perhaps he understood it didn't really make much sense.