"He predicted through “back-of-an-envelope calculations” that another advanced civilization in the Milky Way only interested in interstellar travel could develop the ability to travel at around ten percent the speed of light and populate the entire galaxy in just about ten million years or so.
And I call *complete* BS concerning that. First of all, it represents an average rate of expansion of about 1% of the speed of light (the galaxy is about 100,000 light years across). There are *many* reasons to think that is highly unlikely.
1. Currently, our fastest space probes travel at about1/10% of the speed of light. So, even if we could populate the galaxy at a consistent rate of the speed of our probes, it would take 10x longer than this prediction. Faster probes take *much* more energy to launch (each factor of 2 increase of speed requires 4 times as much energy) and resources.
2. It actually takes time to populate a planet. In fact, it would be unreasonable to assume that more than a small amount of time and energy is devoted to actually moving between systems as opposed to figuring out how to live in the systems themselves. Let's face it, a newly colonized planet isn't going to be sending out new colonies immediately. What is the delay between the start of colonization of a planet and when the spread to the next planet occurs? How does that compare to the time it takes to get between planets? It's clear most of the time is going to be spent on planets as opposed to moving between them. That increases the time it takes to spread significantly.
3. Where do the resources come from? Considering what it takes to even start contemplating moving people between planets in *our* solar system, the complexity and risk of moving between systems is thousands of times greater. Considering that most planets and societies will work from a position of limited resources, how much will the economies be devoted to populating the galaxy? Don't forget, this has to be maintained not just through the trip to the new planet, but all resources for colonization have to be either sent (expensive) or developed at the new site (risky and time consuming). Especially for the first several generations on each new planet, the focus is going to be on survival. It won't be for centuries before any new planet is ready to bounce back into space. That again reduces the average speed of moving out into the galaxy.
4. Size of the spaceships. In addition to the energy factors above related to speed, there is also an energy factor regarding size. If you want to send any significant size of population between star systems, the journey will either take thousands of years for those internal to the craft, OR you will have to push to relativistic speeds, which greatly increases the energy expenditure. For example, to get to 86% of the speed of light requires the equivalent amount of energy as in the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima *for each gram of cargo*. Again, the sheer economic factors mean that actual colonization is very unlikely.
So, no, I don't agree with predictions along these lines. They are very much 'back of the envelope' calculations and NOT reasonable because of many obvious factors.
Finally, this is ALL assuming that this species of aliens *lasts* 10 million years. Considering that humans have been around about 150,000 and seem to be about to destroy ourselves after a mere 100 years of radio, why would you assume that such long-lived species are typical?