Anyone worried about coronavirus?

[Shadow Wolf]

It is getting a little bit scary.

That is a one out of fortyfive chance of dying. How does that compare to a normal flu?

It's less of a worry.
Why You Don't Need to Panic About the New Coronavirus

The outbreak is serious, but if you’re living in the United States, the odds are that the everyday flu is a much more serious risk to your health. At this point, the seasonal flu carries much greater odds of killing you while in the United States than the novel coronavirus recently identified in Wuhan, China.

 

[Subduction Zone]

Trying to find an article that I saw 2 days ago in the Lancet https://www.thelancet.com/ claiming that in all likelihood the situation is worse than what's being reported.

In a rapidly spreading disease at its onset one would expect that to be the case.

 

[Quagmire]

Nah. CDC and WHO are saying just to take normal everyday precautions. It really seems like any other "ZOMG is gonna kill us all!" disease that does less damage and death than the regular flu.

What I don't think people understand is that the risk of actually catching the virus is only part of the problem:

Beijing in the Time of Coronavirus: No Traffic, Empty Parks and Fear

Beijing has a population 3 times the size of New York, 9 times the size of LA.

If most daily activities in either of those 2 American cities came to a halt our economy would be in serious trouble.

The Chinese economy is being gutted by the epidemic: US companies suspend China operations, restrict travel as coronavirus outbreak becomes global crisis

And that's going to affect everybody: The coronavirus is already hurting the world economy. Here's why it could get really scary - CNN

 

[Subduction Zone]

It's less of a worry.
Why You Don't Need to Panic About the New Coronavirus

if it stays in China it is not that big of a concern. But it appears to have a far higher mortality rate than the flu does. If it spreads from China there could be problems.

 

[Quagmire]

In a rapidly spreading disease at its onset one would expect that to be the case.

Yes, in any event. But considering the generally-tight-lipped-anyway government we're talking about, I don't think it's too paranoid to mentally-magnify the scope of the under-reporting a bit. Or a lot.

 

[Quagmire]

if it stays in China it is not that big of a concern. But it appears to have a far higher mortality rate than the flu does. If it spreads from China there could be problems.

The biggest problems with this particular stain (SARS and MERS were both strains of the corona virus too) is how contagious it is, and how long the incubation phase lasts. An infected person walking around for 2 weeks before showing any symptoms could infect a lot of people.

 

[Subduction Zone]

Yes, in any event. But considering the generally-tight-lipped-anyway government we're talking about, I don't think it's too paranoid to mentally-magnify the scope of the under-reporting a bit. Or a lot.

Well one thing that China has going for it that the western world does not is a lack of personal rights. It is far easier for them to quarantine a city than it would be to do so here.

 

[Quagmire]

On top of that, this is a brand new strain, hence the "Novel". It just came into existence a matter of weeks ago, so absolutely no one on earth is immune.

 

[Quagmire]

Well one thing that China has going for it that the western world does not is a lack of personal rights. It is far easier for them to quarantine a city than it would be to do so here.

Well, our personal rights are always provisional. A big enough outbreak anywhere in the West and I think we'd be reminded of that quick enough.

 

[Quagmire]

The thing to prepare for isn't just the disease itself, the thing we need to prepare for is the potential impact on the infrastructure, and even more than that, how people are going to react to it.

If people think the stores are going to run out of food, they're going to run out of food.

 

[Quagmire]

Like I tried to say in this train wreck of a thread: Prepping for the Coronavirus

The thing to prepare for isn't the disease itself, the thing we need to prepare for is the potential impact on the infrastructure, and even more than that, how people are going to react to it.

If people think the stores are going to run out of food, they're going to run out of food.

I realize it sounds a little crazy to talk about this stuff now, even considering the shortages the outbreak is causing in China and some of the surrounding countries.

Wuhan is running low on food,
Hong Kong Shoppers Snap Up Rice and Noodles as Coronavirus Fears Mount
https://nypost.com/2020/02/06/hong-kong-faces-toilet-paper-shortage-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/

The thing is: by the time it doesn't sound crazy anymore . . .

Lets just say it would be easier to make a cpl extra trips to Costco now, than one mad dash along with everybody else in your community later.

 

[Milton Platt]

I trust the government to take care of the best interests of the country.
Tom

That was your first mistake.

 

[Milton Platt]

Though primarily a Chinese disease it has left the country. And where is the first case in the US? Within two miles of my house:

Snohomish County man with Wuhan coronavirus is being treated largely by a robot

I would have thought that @Audie would have been more at risk then I am.

Edit: Rats. I hate typing on my tablet. The title has a typo.

I don't think panic is warranted. I think measured concern is appropriate. As in stay informed and don't do stupid.

 

[Subduction Zone]

I don't think panic is warranted. I think measured concern is appropriate. As in stay informed and don't do stupid.

I am not anywhere near panicking yet. Right now I am at a rather low level of concern. China is going to suffer some economic setbacks, but in the long run that could be a plus for everyone else. Short term it does hurt everyone, since we all rely on Chinese products so much.

 

[Quagmire]

More perspective

The SARS epidemic killed roughly 800 people over an 8 month period.

The Novel Coronavirus has so far accounted for 811 deaths in the 6 weeks since it was identified.

Coronavirus news and live updates: Death toll in China surpasses total from SARS outbreak - CNN

 

[Quagmire]

I don't think panic is warranted. I think measured concern is appropriate. As in stay informed and don't do stupid.

Exactly. What I don't understand is the people I've talked to who seem to think our only two options are to either panic or ignore it altogether.

 

[Quagmire]

It is getting a little bit scary.

That is a one out of fortyfive chance of dying. How does that compare to a normal flu?

Sorry, it took me a bit of digging to find this:

Flu: 0.13 percent

According to Oxford university’s Vaccine Knowledge Project, an average of 600 people in the UK die from the flu per year.

The figures are subject to peaks and troughs, as the project noted deaths increased to 13,000 during 2008-2009.

In countries such as the US, the figure is more pronounced, as 10,000 people have died from the virus during the latest season, which started in late 2019.

Nevertheless, the disease comes with a low mortality rate of roughly 0.13 percent, and affects those most severely who are chronically unwell.

 

[Quagmire]

Coronavirus
Latest stats:
40,171 cases,
908, deaths

Coronavirus Live Updates: Deaths in China Surpass Toll From SARS

 

[Dan From Smithville]

Though primarily a Chinese disease it has left the country. And where is the first case in the US? Within two miles of my house:

Snohomish County man with Wuhan coronavirus is being treated largely by a robot

I would have thought that @Audie would have been more at risk then I am.

Edit: Rats. I hate typing on my tablet. The title has a typo.

I am not worried yet, but I am keeping as informed as I can.

 

[Subduction Zone]

Coronavirus
Latest stats:
40,171 cases,
908, deaths

Coronavirus Live Updates: Deaths in China Surpass Toll From SARS

It is close to 1 in 40. So call it 2.4% Almost 20 times more deadly than an average flu. That is a bit scary. At least it appears to have limited sources. That means that quarantine of those that have it or were exposed may be possible.