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Anyone worried about coronavirus?

Dan From Smithville

The Flying Elvises, Utah Chapter
Staff member
Premium Member

Dan From Smithville

The Flying Elvises, Utah Chapter
Staff member
Premium Member
Woolly Mammoth flu.

Doesn't sound like anything I'd want to mess with.
There have already been discoveries of new, uncharacterized microbes found in the Siberian tundra.

Since the caronavirus jumped from a reservoir host to humans, finding something in a frozen animal carcass is not inconceivable as a source. I am less concerned about scientists unleashing something new than I am about increased encounters between locals or wildlife due to a defrosting environment, spreading something.

We regularly encounter new disease organisms now. Sources opened by climate change may be speculation at this point, but I think it has a potential worth considering.
 

Quagmire

Imaginary talking monkey
Staff member
Premium Member
Mortality still 2%

Estimates vary, but in any case as early as it is in the epidemic ratios are hard to nail down and will probably change over time.
Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Out of curiosity, how do live food markets cause this? Don't pet shops and zoos have the same problems?

Is it caused by lack of antibiotics/ vaccinations in the animals or by eating them raw?

No idea, but considering that almost all, if not all, infectious diseases can trace their origins to human/animal interaction, eating anything raw sounds like a bad idea to me.
 

Ouroboros

Coincidentia oppositorum
Get used to it. Increasing global temperatures are going to unlock a lot of things frozen in ice or deep in the tundra soils.
What? Global warming is just fake news, or so I'm told by our lord and savior Trump. ;)

To be serious though, I think we're in for a heck of a ride when it comes to diseases, food, and much more. Only new inventions and ingenuity can save us now.
 

Jayhawker Soule

-- untitled --
Premium Member
Anyone worried? Me. Very.

The Diamond Princess is currently quarantined off the coast of Japan. My wife and I are booked on its mid-April Japan cruise.
 

Quagmire

Imaginary talking monkey
Staff member
Premium Member
Anyone worried? Me. Very.

The Diamond Princess is currently quarantined off the coast of Japan. My wife and I are booked on its mid-April Japan cruise.
Tough break, Jay.

Maybe you could get a refund, all things considered?
 

McBell

Unbound
Don't know where the author us getting his information then.

As if last night we were here:
Coronavirus Update (Live): 64,474 Cases and 1,384 Deaths from the Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
I do not know what the death count was on February 6, 2020.
It is possible that the article was written a few days before the published time stamp.
It could also be that the death count was only 500 (or close to it) on February 6, 2020.
That was a week ago, after all.

The posts in this thread jump from Jan 27, 2020 to February 8, 2020.
On feb 8 you posted a link that there were 811 deaths.
I found a website that claims 636 in China alone on feb 6, 2020
 

McBell

Unbound
I do not know what the death count was on February 6, 2020.
It is possible that the article was written a few days before the published time stamp.
It could also be that the death count was only 500 (or close to it) on February 6, 2020.
That was a week ago, after all.

The posts in this thread jump from Jan 27, 2020 to February 8, 2020.
On feb 8 you posted a link that there were 811 deaths.
I found a website that claims 636 in China alone on feb 6, 2020
I suspecrt that we will start encountering inconsistencies with the death count simply because people will start being selective on which deaths count and which do not.
 

Quagmire

Imaginary talking monkey
Staff member
Premium Member

A cpl of other problems with this article:

It mentions the fact that both SARS and MERS were responsible for more deaths so far (that is if for some reason we decide to accept his claim of 500 deaths for the Novel-c virus).

What he isn't taking into account is that the SARS epidemic lasted 9 months, and the 800 deaths attributed to that strain included all the casualties of the epidemic along with any fatalities since it appeared in 2002, 18 years ago.

MERS has been around since 2012, and the 858 deaths are a summary of the last 8 years.

So what we really have here:

MERS 858 deaths over the course of 8 years.

SARS 800 deaths over the course of 18 years.

Novel coronavirus 500 over the course of something like 6 weeks.


And that's if we accept the authors count, which again seems unfounded. Especially when compared to stats from more reliable sources, which put the count over 1300 so far.

The author also points out that the novel virus is no more contagious than the measles.

Thing is, we have a vaccine for the measles, and even so:

"In 2011, the WHO estimated that 158,000 deaths were caused by measles. This is down from 630,000 deaths in 1990.[78] As of 2018, measles remains a leading cause of vaccine-preventable deaths in the world.[15][79] In developed countries the mortality rate is lower, for example in England and Wales from 2007-2017 death occurred between two and three cases out of 10,000.[80] "
Measles - Wikipedia

The measles has between a .1 and .2 mortality rate, compared with novel's 2+%, 10 to 20 times as high.

All in all IMO the article looks like an OP-ed by someone who didn't bother checking his facts very closely, or thinking the whole thing through very well.
 
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