I know.
It is an argumentum ad populum fallacy that they would always be right..
It is not conclusive.
However, the probability of the audience being right at 80% is very high.
Completely depends on the subject.
There are plenty of things that a majority of people would get wrong, purely because of how human brains work. This is essentially the kind of stuff that mentalists and magicians and alike exploit all the time.
There are thing that humans, purely due to the human condition, would most commonly get wrong. Just like there are things that humans would most commonly get right.
For example, we know for a fact that humans very much have a tendency to be superstitious; to engage in type 2 cognition errors. Aka "the false positive". Humans are also prone to infuse agency and purpose in what are actually just random events. A result of "
counting the hits and ignoring the misses".
Such psychological human weaknesses are exploited all the time, on purpose and by design, by a great many people and organizations. From con-men all the way to facebook software.
So in summary, it really depends on the subject matter.
Many atheists imply that 'argumentum ad populum' is a fallacy that shows they must be wrong.
That is wrong, in itself.
That is indeed wrong and I must say that I have never seen an atheist argue such. This is a misrepresentation.
What
actually happens when this fallacy is invoked, is when theists make the claim, or implication, that
because most people are religious, there
must be such a thing as the supernatural. So they try to use "the majority believes" as evidence in support of the claim.
THAT is what the fallacy is.
And the use of the fallacy doesn't mean that therefor the claims are
wrong.
Instead, it means that the
argument given (belief = evidence of the claim) is wrong.
Many people believing the claim is NOT evidence for the claim.
That's it. So what we are left with is a claim that is not in evidence.
That doesn't mean the claim is wrong. It just means that there's no evidence - and thus no reason to think it's accurate.
The ad populum fallacy is just about believing the claim IS supported by appealing to majority belief.
For example, if I would say that "
E=mc² is accurate because most people believe it", then that would be an ad populum fallacy. Even though E = mc²
is accurate.
If I say it is accurate
because of majority belief, then that's fallacious.
Off course, there are
other reasons, scientific reasons not depending on popular opinion, for why it is accurate.
Probabilities are very real. One can't just cry 'argumentum ad populum' to everything that involves a number of people, without taking into account the nature of the claim.
Probabilities are the result of a calculation with verifiable and demonstrable variables.
Probabilities are not the results of counting "votes".
"x people believe y" is not a matter of probability. It's a matter of popular belief.
That would just be "blind faith" in atheism
Que?
I don't even know how that follows or relates to the sentences you typed before that.