Covid-19 vaccine efficacy?

[Polymath257]

Where does it say that testing positive for CoVid19 is only halved by vaccination ?

Once again, there is a distinction between getting infected (testing positive), being hospitalized and dying.

The vaccine cuts the risk of getting infected by the delta variant by half. But it reduces the risk of hospitalization or death by much more.

One problem is that when someone gets infected by the delta variant, they produce much more virus than they would if infected by the alpha variant. This makes them much more of a risk to *others*.

And, given that people who are vaccinated can get infected, there is a recommendation that they also wear masks. We want to slow the spread of this virus.

But, if you are vaccinated and get infected, you are MUCH less likely to have to go to the hospital and are much less likely to die fro the infection. THAT is why getting vaccinated is a good idea: your risk of dying is significantly less.

 

[Polymath257]

Why can't we agree on what percentage needs to be vaccinated for herd immunity? Some say 60%, others say 66%, some say 75%

Partly because there is more than one variant and the R0 depends on the variant. If the R0 is smaller, fewer people need to be resistant to get to herd immunity. if the R0 is larger, more people need to be resistant to get to herd immunity. If the R0 is too large, herd immunity is impossible.

So, as the disease changes, the percentage required to get herd immunity changes as well. If we could get herd immunity for ALL the variants, the virus would fade away. But with a reservoir of people who are NOT vaccinated, there are a LOT of people who are susceptible, so new variants have people to infect.

 

[Polymath257]

Unveiled Artist said: ↑
No, but if someone gave you a pill that just came off the market to prevent an illness you don't know you have (yet?) that's different than just seatbelts and antilock breaks.

The reason they are different is because seat belts have no potential to cause any harm (similar to wearing a mask to prevent getting Covid) whereas vaccines do have the potential to be harmful, and that is why under normal circumstances vaccines are rigorously tested for both safety and efficacy for 6-10 years before they are approved by the FDA. How long were the Covid vaccines tested?

At this point, we have a LOT of real world data about the COVID vaccines. Given that NONE of the vaccine materials are in your body after a couple of weeks, we know that they are safe.

People who mention that vaccines can be harmful seem to be ignoring the fact that being infected by this virus is far, far, far more likely to be harmful. The difference is similar to being concerned about going outside because you might be hit by a meteor and walking down the middle of a freeway in dark clothes at night.

 

[ronki23]

Partly because there is more than one variant and the R0 depends on the variant. If the R0 is smaller, fewer people need to be resistant to get to herd immunity. if the R0 is larger, more people need to be resistant to get to herd immunity. If the R0 is too large, herd immunity is impossible.

So, as the disease changes, the percentage required to get herd immunity changes as well. If we could get herd immunity for ALL the variants, the virus would fade away. But with a reservoir of people who are NOT vaccinated, there are a LOT of people who are susceptible, so new variants have people to infect.

The R number in the England (where I live) is already below 1

 

[Trailblazer]

People who mention that vaccines can be harmful seem to be ignoring the fact that being infected by this virus is far, far, far more likely to be harmful.

We are not comparing the two. We just aren't afraid of getting the virus.
Why does everyone want us to be afraid just because they are afraid?

 

[Unveiled Artist]

At this point, we have a LOT of real world data about the COVID vaccines. Given that NONE of the vaccine materials are in your body after a couple of weeks, we know that they are safe.

People who mention that vaccines can be harmful seem to be ignoring the fact that being infected by this virus is far, far, far more likely to be harmful. The difference is similar to being concerned about going outside because you might be hit by a meteor and walking down the middle of a freeway in dark clothes at night.

You get why people choose not to vaccinate and/or hesitant about it?

The risk of being infected, regardless how low (per ones perspective) is still risk. Taking something for granted is overlooking that risk by downplaying it or ignoring it totally.

Rarity doesn't make vaccine side effects less severe. Just hope that people who get side effects don't sweep it under the rug as "just a fever." (Mentioned vax side effect)

I think it's more if you took a new med for say cancer. The doctor tells you there may be side effects...as new medications tend to have. You were the unfortunate one that had a severe side effect that it compromised the rest of treatment.

It's not like being hit by meteor because once you take the vax you are Always at a risk for side effects.

Some meds like mine have a "waiting" period. Once in my system the risk drops.

Vax SE can show up in two years. Ten years. One week. It's experimental and unknown factors that I'm sure you understand why people choose not to vaccinate?

 

[Trailblazer]

I think it's more if you took a new med for say cancer. The doctor tells you there may be safe effects...as new medications tend to have. You were the unfortunate one that had a severe side effect that it compromised the rest of treatment.

The hundred-dollar difference is that you would not take a new cancer med unless you had cancer.

It's not like being hit by meteor because once you take the vax you are Always at a risk for sure effects. Two years. Ten years. One week. It's experimental and unknown factors that I'm sure you understand why people choose not to vaccinate?

No, they do not understand because what they fear is different from what we fear. They don't think our fears are legit but we don't tromp on their fears. They have a right to their fears but why don't we have a right to our fears?

 

[Jeremiah Ames]

If a vaccine reduces likelihood of getting Covid-19 then why are we still recommended to wear masks after vaccination ?

If 100 people were vaccinated from Covid then 66 (Janssen) to 95 (Pfizer / Moderna) won't get Covid and 5 to 33 out of that 100 will.

They say herd immunity is 60 to 75% so if 60- 75 people were vaccinated then out of 100 people 40 (66% Janssen efficacy x 60 percent jabbed) to 67.5 (95% Pfizer / Modern x 75 percent jabbed) won't get it.

That still means 32.5 to 60 % of people will still get Covid regardless of whether they are or aren't vaccinated because the vaccines are not 100% effective.

If sample size is 100 then 32.5-60 x 3% means instead of 3 people out of 100 dying from Covid, 2 will die from Covid after jabbing 60-75%.

Have I made an error in my calculations somewhere ?

You seem to have no interest in the general population.

 

[Jeremiah Ames]

No, but if someone gave you a pill that just came off the market to prevent an illness you don't know you have (yet?) that's different than just seatbelts and antilock breaks.

So, what you’re saying, is that it’s all about you?

 

[Trailblazer]

You seem to have no interest in the general population.

What makes you think that people getting the vaccine are doing it for the general population?

 

[Polymath257]

We are not comparing the two. We just aren't afraid of getting the virus.
Why does everyone want us to be afraid just because they are afraid?

This virus is deadly. it is far, far more dangerous than the vaccines.

People who have not been afraid of getting the virus are *dying*. There is good reason to be AFRAID if you don't want to DIE. If, however, you don't care about DYING, then there is nothing to be afraid about, including with the vaccines.

 

[Trailblazer]

So, what you’re saying, is that it’s all about you?

No, that is not what she said. Why did you make it into that?

 

[Trailblazer]

This virus is deadly. it is far, far more dangerous than the vaccines.

I said I was not comparing the two. What about that did you not hear?

The virus is only "potentially deadly" and only if you contract it. If you want to live in fear that's your choice. Do you think everyone should live in fear, just because you do?

 

[Polymath257]

You get why people choose not to vaccinate and/or hesitant about it?

No, I don't. I find it to be irresponsible and stupid.

The risk of being effected, regardless how low (per ones perspective) is still risk. Taking something for granted is overlooking that risk by downplaying it or ignoring it totally.

And compared to the very real risk from the virus, the small risk of the vaccine is minimal.

Rarity doesn't make vaccine side effects less severe. Just hope that people who get side effects don't sweep it under the rug as "just a fever." (Mentioned vax side effect)

As opposed to DYING of the virus. Sorry, the mild fever is a small thing in comparison.

I think it's more if you took a new med for say cancer. The doctor tells you there may be side effects...as new medications tend to have. You were the unfortunate one that had a severe side effect that it compromised the rest of treatment.

So, for example, a new asthma medication came out 40 years ago. It allowed me to breathe. But nobody knew the long term effects of taking this medicine. But I took it because not breathing was a greater risk than maybe having liver issues 40 years later.

It's not like being hit by meteor because once you take the vax you are Always at a risk for side effects.

WRONG. The materials in the virus are gone from your body is a couple of weeks.

Some meds like mine have a "waiting" period. Once in my system the risk drops.

Some meds stay in the body. Some are metabolized in ways that affect other systems. That is NOT the case for these vaccines.

Vax SE can show up in two years. Ten years. One week. It's experimental and unknown factors that I'm sure you understand why people choose not to vaccinate?

No, I truly don't. Again, it seems like straining at a gnat while swallowing a whale. The unknown factors are far outweighed by the risks of catching the virus. This virus KILLS.

 

[Polymath257]

I said I was not comparing the two. What about that did you not hear?

But those are the appropriate comparisons to make: between the risks from the virus and the risks from the vaccine.

The virus is only "potentially deadly" and only if you contract it. If you want to live in fear that's your choice. Do you think everyone should live in fear, just because you do?

No. It *is* deadly. People die from it. Our hospitals are full of people with it to the place that *other* people can't get beds.

And why is it that those that argue that the virus is only 'potentially deadly' are the same ones that don't want to wear masks or otherwise prevent *contracting the virus*?

 

[Jeremiah Ames]

What makes you think that people getting the vaccine are doing it for the general population?

I stated it like that, but I think it’s likely the opposite really:

Those NOT getting it now are doing so for selfish reasons.

It’s just a matter of containing the spread so all the tired, worn out healthcare workers can catch a break.

I started wearing my mask again a few days ago, and I don’t care about myself. I’m vaccinated and have no fear. I go to stores where employees have to wear masks now, and I do it for them. I’ve talked to a some workers months ago, and I realized many of them need their jobs badly, but are fearful of getting Covid.

 

[Jeremiah Ames]

No, that is not what she said. Why did you make it into that?

I’m so very sorry.

Now let me go stand in the corner.

 

[Jeremiah Ames]

No, that is not what she said. Why did you make it into that?

Perhaps someone has their bias blinders on today?

If you reread what I said, you may notice I just asked a question.

 

[Unveiled Artist]

The hundred-dollar difference is that you would not take a new cancer med unless you had cancer.

True. That or you would not take cold medicine daily just in case you catch a cold and spread it to others. Usually people start with the least evasive preventive measures-washing hands, covering one's mouth, and work their way up to preventive measures they can't do at home.

It depends on where one lives too.... but I do find it quite ridiculous (sorry to say) that your threat of the spread the virus is the same level as for me and the person in the city. Now I understanding using facts to determine how people are vulnerable to COVID but I assume we can determine on our own whether these facts apply to some people more than others.

No, they do not understand because what they fear is different from what we fear. They don't think our fears are legit but we don't tromp on their fears. They have a right to their fears but why don't we have a right to our fears?

Exactly. I don't think many know and/or self-acknowledge that it is fear that's driving them to make their decisions to vaccinate (and not vaccinate) and not only the facts read by both parties.

The thing is once 99.9% vaccinate around the world how long would it take to reach herd immunity?

 

[Lyndon]

I couldn't live with myself if I was advocating policies that promote death!