I know that there are plenty of people choosing not to vaccinate because they are concerned about the well being of themselves and others.
Nobody is choosing not to vaccinate because they are worried about the welfare of others.
Their reluctance to take the vaccine for fear of it is a bit of a mystery given the known danger of the virus. They are essentially saying that they fear the vaccine more than the virus, which is undoubtedly because they're not thinking about the danger of the virus at all. I'm reminded of a person afraid to go out in thunder and lightning, whose house is struck by lightening causing the house to catch on fire, and he refuses to get up and go out because he is "concerned about his well-being." He sees danger outside with the storm, and so he is reluctant to act.
That's how I hear claims of being concerned about the vaccine. I realize that people want that choice respected, but to somebody looking at the relative risks of the vaccine and the virus, how one could choose to risk the virus unprotected over the vaccine that has been so well tolerated and so effective at saving lives is a mystery.
Regarding those who were waiting for others to provide herd immunity and make them safe, that never happened, and now appears to be unattainable even if the world were 100% vaccinated today. Why? Herd immunity is not when everybody is vaccinated, but when most people don't have the virus and are immune to infection by it. Those are generally safe days for the unvaccinated, since so few of the people around them could have the virus, they don't catch it.
That's just not possible when nobody is immune to infection, even the vaccinated. We will continue circulating this virus among ourselves, vaccinated and unvaccinated alike, for an indefinite period of time. Right now, the vaccinated are relatively immune to severe disease, and the deaths for the foreseeable future will occur mostly in the unvaccinated. I say foreseeable future, because the next strain of coronavirus may be able to pierce the present protection of the vaccine against severe disease and death. What we can expect for the next few months to years is a daily COVID death count mostly at the expense of the unvaccinated.
How long will these people continue to die needlessly? How many of their unvaccinated friends and family will they have to see to recognize that the threat of the virus and that it is greater than the that of the virus, as they see the vaccinated doing well and most deaths coming from the group they've chosen to put themselves into. It's a tough call.
I think that most will eventually want the vaccine when they realize that they've been sitting in the burning house avoiding the storm. You've got to believe that a time will come when he recognizes that the burning house he's taking shelter in is the greater threat, and he will eventually try to get out of it if he can.
But even if they do, that only means that they stop dying, not that the virus goes away. I don't see that happening unless a stronger vaccine is invented to prevent infection like we had back in December, when the mRNA vaccines offered 95% protection against even mild or asymptomatic infection. Herd immunity was still a possibility at that time. Get enough people that kind of protection, and the virus has nowhere to go, so, it becomes scarce in the community.
But that's not going to happen with the delta variant dominating the viral population worldwide. Although the vaccines are still very effective at preventing things like respiratory failure and kidney failure, they won't clear the virus from the local population. The older precautions of the prevaccine era will be the most defense we can expect to muster to reduce person to person transmission. Will that be enough to clear the virus? Again, hard to guess.
