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Global Warming | Fact or Fiction?

How do you feel about Global Warming?

  • Global Warming is a myth and the climate will stabilize soon.

    Votes: 4 3.4%
  • Global Warming is happening but Humanity has nothing to do with it.

    Votes: 8 6.9%
  • Global Warming is happening and Humanity is partly to blame.

    Votes: 41 35.3%
  • Global Warming is happening and Humanity is mostly to blame.

    Votes: 52 44.8%
  • Global Warming is happening and Humanity is the only cause.

    Votes: 8 6.9%
  • Don’t know, don’t care.

    Votes: 3 2.6%

  • Total voters
    116

LegionOnomaMoi

Veteran Member
Premium Member
evidence_CO2.jpg
Very impressive graph. But it doesn't change anything that I said. That spike you see? That's a shift in total atmospheric carbon from almost three hundredths of 1% to almost four hundredths of 1%.

Did you read any of the acadmic, peer-reviewed papers (i.e. actual science and not PR or headlines from whatever google can get you) that I provided links to? Let me try again. All of the papers I mention are links to the actual papers. You can read REAL science and not PR summary or news report.

So you say. But have you read any actual research? Here's an paper published in 2010 in EOS, one of the American Geophysical Union's journals: Climate and Melting Variability in Antarctica. They conclude that the melting is of the AGW period is consistent with a longer trend (50-100) years.

You are oversimplifying a vastly more complex situation. This article was published by the Royal Society's journal on Mathematical, Physical, & Engineering Sciences: Stability of ice-sheet grounding lines (I uploaded the article. If for some reason the link doesn't work, a pre-publication copy may be found here). You paint a simplistic picture of something vastly more complex.

In his 2010 paper published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, "Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications," Scarfetta reviews the available data sets and research on CO2, temperature records, and solar activity, and concludes that 60% of the observed warming attributed to human activity was natural. One of the possible contributers to this natural forcing (according to Scarfetta) is GCRs, specifically their role in cloud-seeding. The theory was developed indepedently by Kirby and his collegues at CERN and Svensmark and his (mainly Calder and Marsh). In a recent paper in Physics Reports ("Cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced reactions of halogenated molecules adsorbed on ice surfaces"), however, Lu finds that GCRs also are responsible for ozone depletion, including that which is thought to be due to human activity. According to his study, "global temperature has been dominantly controlled" by the affect GCRs have on the ozone.
 

shawn001

Well-Known Member
"In his 2010 paper published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, "Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications," Scarfetta reviews the available data sets and research on CO2, temperature records, and solar activity, and concludes that 60% of the observed warming attributed to human activity was natural. One of the possible contributers to this natural forcing (according to Scarfetta) is GCRs, specifically their role in cloud-seeding."

The sun has some impact on climate oscillations.

"60% of the observed warming attributed to human activity was natural."

If it were true what about the other 40%?


You might want to read

But Duffy, Wigley and Santer argue that Scafetta's interpretation makes the climate... mysteriously hypersensitive to solar variations

http://www.fel.duke.edu/~scafetta/pdf/physicstoday2009b.pdf



as well as from 2012 which I had already posted here.
NASA Confirms Man's role in Global Warming

A new NASA study underscores the fact that greenhouse gases generated by human activity -- not changes in solar activity -- are the primary force driving global warming.

The study offers an updated calculation of the Earth's energy imbalance, the difference between the amount of solar energy absorbed by Earth's surface and the amount returned to space as heat. The researchers' calculations show that, despite unusually low solar activity between 2005 and 2010, the planet continued to absorb more energy than it returned to space.

NASA - Earth's Energy Budget Remained Out of Balance Despite Unusually Low Solar Activity



 

shawn001

Well-Known Member
"
So you say. But have you read any actual research? Here's an paper published in 2010 in EOS, one of the American Geophysical Union's journals: Climate and Melting Variability in Antarctica. They conclude that the melting is of the AGW period is consistent with a longer trend (50-100) years."

Give me a summery of this paper in your own word to what it means?

 

shawn001

Well-Known Member
And exactly how are you measuring success? The larger the company, the more all the income has to be spread around. Bill gates runs microsoft, not big oil. In fact, if you go to the list of richest people in the world, you'd have to go down pretty far to find a ExxonMobil executive.
You are two funny.

Of course what they say and do are two different things.

This was in 2006
Exxon cuts ties to global warming skeptics

Oil giant also in talks to look at curbing greenhouse gases

Oil major Exxon Mobil Corp. is engaging in industry talks on possible U.S. greenhouse gas emissions regulations and has stopped funding groups skeptical of global warming claims — moves that some say could indicate a change in stance from the long-time foe of limits on heat-trapping gases.

Exxon, along with representatives from about 20 other companies, is participating in talks sponsored by Resources for the Future, a Washington, D.C., nonprofit. The think tank said it expected the talks would generate a report in the fall with recommendations to legislators on how to regulate greenhouse emissions.

Mark Boudreaux, a spokesman for Exxon, the world’s biggest publicly traded company, said its position on climate change has been “widely misunderstood and as a result of that, we have been clarifying and talking more about what our position is.”

Boudreux said Exxon in 2006 stopped funding the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a nonprofit advocating limited government regulation, and other groups that have downplayed the risks of greenhouse emissions.

Exxon cuts ties to warming skeptics - US news - Environment - msnbc.com
 

shawn001

Well-Known Member
Or not...

But Exxon continued to fund a further 28 groups which campaigned against climate science. And the Center for Science in the public Interest stated in June 2008, "Each group continued to receive Exxon funding in 2007 after the company’s first announcement that it would discontinue the payments. Exxon did not immediately return calls seeking comment on how serious it was in following through on its plans." [16].

In 2011, the Global Warming Policy Foundation's website ran the headline "900+ Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism Of 'Man-Made' Global Warming (AGW) Alarm," listing more than 900 papers which, according to the GWPF, refute "concern relating to a negative environmental or socio-economic effect of AGW, usually exaggerated as catastrophic." However, a preliminary data analysis by the Carbon Brief revealed that nine of the ten most prolific authors cited have links to organisations funded by ExxonMobil, and the tenth has co-authored several papers with Exxon-funded contributors. The top ten contributors alone were responsible for 186 of the papers (over 20%) cited by the Global Warming Policy Foundation.[17]

which again I had already posted.
Analysing the ‘900 papers supporting climate scepticism’: 9 out of top 10 authors linked to ExxonMobil

'900+ Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism Of "Man-Made" Global Warming (AGW) Alarm' announces the headline on the Global Warming Policy Foundation's website.

The article references a blog linking to more than 900 papers which, according to the GWPF, refute "concern relating to a negative environmental or socio-economic effect of AGW, usually exaggerated as catastrophic."

However, a preliminary data analysis by the Carbon Brief has revealed that nine of the ten most prolific authors cited have links to organisations funded by ExxonMobil, and the tenth has co-authored several papers with Exxon-linked contributors.
The top ten contributors are alone responsible for 186 of the papers cited by the Global Warming Policy Foundation. The data also shows that there are many other familiar climate sceptic names among the major contributors to the list.
Dr Sherwood B Idso is the most cited academic on the list, having authored or co-authored 67 of the 938 papers we analysed, which is seven percent of the total.
Idso is president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, a thinktank which has been funded by ExxonMobil. Idso has also been linked to Information Council on the Environment ( ICE ), an energy industry PR campaign accused of "astroturfing".

The second most cited is Dr Patrick J Michaels - with 28 papers to his name. Michaels is a well known climate sceptic who has revealed that he receives around 40% of his funding from the oil industry.

Third most cited is Agricultural scientist Dr Bruce Kimball - the list shows that all of his cited papers were co-authored with Dr Sherwood B Idso.


Why is this important, and what does it indicate?

The "900+ papers" list is supposed to be proof that a large number of different scientists reject the scientific consensus on climate change. Climate sceptics do like big numbers: ' More than 500 scientists dispute global warming' was the story a few years ago. In December it was ' more Than 1000 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims'.
Once you crunch the numbers, however, you find a good proportion of this new list is made up of a small network of individuals who co-author papers and share funding ties to the oil industry. There are numerous other names on the list with links to oil-industry funded climate sceptic think-tanks, including more from the International Policy Network (IPN) and the Marshall Institute.'

Compiling these lists is dramatically different to the process of producing IPCC reports, which reference thousands of scientific papers. The reports are thoroughly reviewed to make sure that the scientific work included is relevant and diverse.

Sceptic organisations have been successful in dumping large lists into the public domain to suggest that there is significant scientific divergence from the consensus. This is partly due to the fact it is time consuming analysing such lists.'


Luckily, there are now free tools online which help you interrogate this kind of data. The screen-scraping website NeedleBase can turn the long list of papers into a single database, while the free data-processing tool Google Refine allows for a rapid analysis.
This is the process used here. Because the screen-scraping process is a little rough around the edges the citation numbers may vary slightly. But they give a clear picture of the structure of the list, which in this instance has been very revealing. Should you wish to examine it, you can download the raw data here.

Using this method we could quickly see the ten most referenced authors. We found that nine of the ten have direct links to ExxonMobil. Eight are affiliated to Exxon-funded organisations, while every paper written by Dr Bruce Kimball was co-authored with Sherwood Idso.

The top ten include Willie Soon, a senior scientist at the Exxon funded George C Marshall institute, and John R Christy, also a Marshall Institute expert.
Ross McKitrick is a senior fellow at the Exxon funded Fraser institute and on the academic advisory board of the Global Warming Policy Foundation - funders unknown.
Dr Indur M Goklany is affiliated with the Exxon Funded thinktank the International Policy Network (US). Sallie L Baliunas is listed by the Union of Concerned Scientists as being affiliated with nine different organisations who have all received funding from ExxonMobil, including the George C Marshall Institute.

Richard Lindzen, a climate scientist and prominent sceptic who notably has a degree of credibility in the scientific community, is a member of the 'Annapolis Center for Science-Based Public Policy', which has also received Exxon funding.

The final name in the top 10 contributors - David H Douglass - has written several papers with Singer, Christie and Michaels - six of the fifteen papers he authored on the list were written with Michaels, Singer or Christie.

Nevertheless, these authors do not make up the whole list. There are plenty of other papers on the list which were not written by this small group.
We'll examine some of those in more detail in Part 2...

Analysing the
 

LegionOnomaMoi

Veteran Member
Premium Member
If it were true what about the other 40%?
Go back to your temperature graphs. Look at the AGW period (~1970 onwards). Then imagine it dropping 60%.



You might want to read
I've been reading Tom Wigley and Ben Santer's work for years. For every publication that comes out saying X, another researcher will find Y. And this is particularly true if the research doesn't support the mainstream paradigm. Yet despite the difficulty involved in publishing non-AGW views in mainstream journals, it keeps happening. Yes, the article might have to remove this or that claim from the original because it is too problematic for AGW theory. Yes, there is always a response from the mainstream view. But this research keeps coming out, one way or another. Why? Because the climate is an incredibly complex system, the field involves a wide variety of specialties, and we don't know as much as we think. Which is why Hansen is explaining the lack of a warming trend now, rather predicting it. Our models, which are the basis for our theory that CO2 emissions have already caused warming and if left unchecked will result in possible catastrophe and definite problems, couldn't account for what's happening NOW. Right now. Not 2100. NOW.

So if so far our ability to predict climate trends is nil, why are we over 90% sure about what will happen in the future?
 

LegionOnomaMoi

Veteran Member
Premium Member
"

Give me a summery of this paper in your own word to what it means?
The authors look at the AGW period and the melting in Antarctica in a wider context. According to their findings, the melting which has occured during this period is consistend with a much longer trend of natural variability in Antarctic ice mass. This could be because of particular natural cycles.
 

LegionOnomaMoi

Veteran Member
Premium Member
Wow, you'll believe anything won't you? Based on a blog, whose author has no obligation to check any of his facts, you determine that all of the research which finds AGW theory problematic is funded by big oil. I could have saved you the trouble. There are tons of blogs like this. Just like there are tons of blogs claiming that AGW is a massive environmentalist conspiracy backed by the left-wingers, from politicians to billioniare left-wing executives.

When you have any idea of the actual science behind the theory, let me know. Until then, once more you can stop running to google to pull out any links you can to claim anything you want, as it's really, really, pathetic. I've tried to give you actual research articles to read. Your response is to link to some blog claiming that it's all funded by big oil? REALLY? Who do you think reviews these journals, and determines what gets published? Why do you think Jones in an email stated that he would make sure to keep certain papers out of the IPCC report even if he had to "redefine" the definition of peer-review? It's because the people who decide what does and doesn't get published, and in what way, are AGW proponents.
 

shawn001

Well-Known Member
Wow, you'll believe anything won't you? Based on a blog, whose author has no obligation to check any of his facts, you determine that all of the research which finds AGW theory problematic is funded by big oil. I could have saved you the trouble. There are tons of blogs like this. Just like there are tons of blogs claiming that AGW is a massive environmentalist conspiracy backed by the left-wingers, from politicians to billioniare left-wing executives.

"you determine that all of the research which finds AGW theory problematic is funded by big oil."

Your not reading the links I guess. Your also stating things I have never said. Not ALL.

When you have any idea of the actual science behind the theory, let me know. Until then, once more you can stop running to google to pull out any links you can to claim anything you want, as it's really, really, pathetic. I've tried to give you actual research articles to read. Your response is to link to some blog claiming that it's all funded by big oil? REALLY? Who do you think reviews these journals, and determines what gets published? Why do you think Jones in an email stated that he would make sure to keep certain papers out of the IPCC report even if he had to "redefine" the definition of peer-review? It's because the people who decide what does and doesn't get published, and in what way, are AGW proponents.


"When you have any idea of the actual science behind the theory, let me know"

You know I have been patient on your attacks on me. You try to be smart but you actually have no actual focus.


I am really done with you on all this, your amazing. You jump all over the place and say little and post individual studies that may or may not mean something. Yes some you posted do of course. The last one on the sun was wrong. The sun did not account for earth energy balance we see now. Nor did he believe from the get go humans were contributing to it from the get go.

I told you frontline did a show on Bush and big oil and global warming in detail, perhaps you should watch it. Oh, wait frontline is bias media as is NOVA.

Your so buried in single research papers you can't see the forrest through the tree's. Your not getting the bigger picture it seems. You can also see the evidence all over the world, so while you look at graphs I look at actual places in the world and what's happening, along with the graphs. Do I need to have a PhD on the graphs, no. I know some of those people personally.

Okay, so your point is here big oil has never hampered the science on global warming to cast doubt on it, which has been proven false already, not just from blogs and the carbon breiefs, but the paper trail left behind, these people are blogging about with the names of the people actually involved and follow it closely.

man has nothing to do with warming. Its ALL totally natural

The earth warming is natural despite the fact its so rapid to anything in the past globally and the earth popluation has increased substantially as has fossil fuel burning and other greenhouse gases.

But go ahead and support them and the oil addiction and pollution its generating. Exxon mobile has your best interest at heart and don't worry the planet is not warming or it has nothing to do with fossil fuels and they'll do there best to make sure you know that.

Greenland is losing 100 billion tons of ice a year. There are major issues going on with greenland.

The global temp is up from 1880 1.5 degree's.

sea level is up 3.19 mm a year

Co is at 392 parts per million.

Sea ice minimum is down 12% per decade.

NASA finds 2011 ninth-warmest year on record

While average global temperature will still fluctuate from year to year, scientists focus on the decadal trend. Nine of the 10 warmest years since 1880 have occurred since the year 2000, as the Earth has experienced sustained higher temperatures than in any decade during the 20th century. As greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, scientists expect the long-term temperature increase to continue as well. (Data source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory, Robert Simmon)


Global temperatures have warmed significantly since 1880, the beginning of what scientists call the "modern record." At this time, the coverage provided by weather stations allowed for essentially global temperature data. As greenhouse gas emissions from energy production, industry and vehicles have increased, temperatures have climbed, most notably since the late 1970s. In this animation of temperature data from 1880-2011, reds indicate temperatures higher than the average during a baseline period of 1951-1980, while blues indicate lower temperatures than the baseline average. (Data source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Visualization credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio)
› Download video (38 MB mp4) | without color bar

"We know the planet is absorbing more energy than it is emitting," said GISS Director James E. Hansen. "So we are continuing to see a trend toward higher temperatures. Even with the cooling effects of a strong La Niña influence and low solar activity for the past several years, 2011 was one of the 10 warmest years on record."
The difference between 2011 and the warmest year in the GISS record (2010) is 0.22 degrees F (0.12 degrees C). This underscores the emphasis scientists put on the long-term trend of global temperature rise. Because of the large natural variability of climate, scientists do not expect temperatures to rise consistently year after year. However, they do expect a continuing temperature rise over decades.
The first 11 years of the 21st century experienced notably higher temperatures compared to the middle and late 20th century, Hansen said. The only year from the 20th century in the top 10 warmest years on record is 1998.
Higher temperatures today are largely sustained by increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. These gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by Earth and release that energy into the atmosphere rather than allowing it to escape to space. As their atmospheric concentration has increased, the amount of energy "trapped" by these gases has led to higher temperatures.
The carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere was about 285 parts per million in 1880, when the GISS global temperature record begins. By 1960, the average concentration had risen to about 315 parts per million. Today it exceeds 390 parts per million and continues to rise at an accelerating pace.

The temperature analysis produced at GISS is compiled from weather data from more than 1,000 meteorological stations around the world, satellite observations of sea surface temperature and Antarctic research station measurements. A publicly available computer program is used to calculate the difference between surface temperature in a given month and the average temperature for the same place during 1951 to 1980. This three-decade period functions as a baseline for the analysis.

The resulting temperature record is very close to analyses by the Met Office Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.
Hansen said he expects record-breaking global average temperature in the next two to three years because solar activity is on the upswing and the next El Niño will increase tropical Pacific temperatures. The warmest years on record were 2005 and 2010, in a virtual tie.
"It's always dangerous to make predictions about El Niño, but it's safe to say we'll see one in the next three years," Hansen said. "It won't take a very strong El Niño to push temperatures above 2010."

Climate Change: News




I leave you with this


“No wonder the ruined woods I used to know don’t cry for retribution!The people who have destroyed it will accomplish its revenge”
William Faulkner
 
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LegionOnomaMoi

Veteran Member
Premium Member
You know I have been patient on your attacks on me

How have you been patient? I've asked you again and again to discuss the science. I've asked you to stop simply finding whatever you can from wherever you can and posting it. I've asked you that if you want to actually discuss this issue, do so, rather than continually post to junk or PR stuff. But rather than engage in a debate about the science, you have continued to browse the internet for anything that you can to avoid an honest, intellectual, discussion of the science. Either you can't actually understand the research, because you lack the background in mathematics, physics, or whatever, or you don't care to, because you don't want to have a discussion at all.


I am really done with you on all this, your amazing. You jump all over the place and say little and post individual studies that may or may not mean something.
I posted peer-reviewed papers published in respected journals, and provided you with links to read them yourself. And you have the audacity to claim that I post "individual studies that may or may not mean something!!??" I tried to get you to look at the actual science. The research. Not some neat little PR bunk you got off of some website. The actual science. You don't read it, you marginalize, and then you link to a blog as if that says ANYTHING about it.

Either admit you don't have ANY clue what you are talking about because you ARE NOT familiar with the research or just stop wasting my time. Again, I am more than willing to engage in a polite, civil, debate about the theory of AGW. I can't do this as long as you absolutely REFUSE to read or refer to any actual peer-reviewed science you have actually read.

The last one on the sun was wrong.

Right. Another paper you managed to find without reading said so, so it MUST be true.

The theory that GCRs are responsible for most of the observed warming goes back almost a decade. There are a number of scientific, peer-reviewed papers on it. And for each one, there are other scientists who disagree. That's how science WORKS.

You claim it's all decided. But you have continously ignored the fact that

1) I started out by stating that there is no warming trend since ~1998 in the data sets. Without having ANY idea what you were talking about, you said I was wrong and then provided a link to NASA's website, even though their website shows I was right.
2) This lack of warming wasn't predicted in any of the models. The AGW proponents are explaining it now, after the fact. The whole point of a model is to be able to predict the future behavior of the system. Our models failed to predict what's going on NOW, let alone in 90 years.



I told you frontline did a show on Bush and big oil and global warming in detail, perhaps you should watch it. Oh, wait frontline is bias media as is NOVA.

Foxnews has done lots of shows on how global warming is all politcal rather than science. But it's foxnews, not science, so I don't care.

You can't say ANYTHING about "global warming in detail" because you posts show you haven't read ANY of the actual research published. And when I made some available, you STILL didn't read it. You aren't interested in the science. You're interested in believing what you do already.

Your so buried in single research papers you can't see the forrest through the tree's.
All research papers are "single papers." I've read hundreds and hundreds over many years. You haven't read anything. I could continue to link to study after study after study and they would always be "single research papers" and you could always find a scientists who disagrees or some blog who says the author is on "big oil's" payroll. And for every link you provide I can provide one that says NASA, the IPCC, the temperature record, etc., is all part of some vast environmentalist left-wing conspiracy.
Your not getting the bigger picture it seems.
It seems to you because you have shown an utter inability to demonstrate even the faintest familiarity with the actual published, reviewed science behind the issues. Instead you link to blogs and a whole lot of other junk. Whenever you get close to actual science, you don't understand it. Once again, your audacity here is simply incredible. All you have done is ripped whatever links you could from interenet searches. Not a single link to an actual article you have read. Not a single response you have written which would demonstrate even a passing familiarity with climate science. But I'm the one "not getting the big picture."

I've studied this for years. When you can describe to me the stastical techniques behind the temperature sets, or the differntial equations in the models, or ANY of the actual technical scientific work done in climate science, then you can accuse me of "not understanding." Until then, all you can do is what you have so far: link to any website you can, and when confronted by "OMG!! REAL SCIENCE" run away to a blog which says it's all from "big oil."

Do I need to have a PhD on the graphs, no.
It would be nice if you had even the ability to READ THE GRAPHS. I posted a graph from HadCRU. You said it ended in 2000, presumably because that was the last number on the x-axis. But the chart didn't end there. You can't even read a graph accurately but you claim to understand the science?


Okay, so your point is here big oil has never hampered the science on global warming to cast doubt on it
No, it isn't. It's that
1) There's plenty of accusations on both sides, some are true, some aren't. In the end, the people with the most money, the people who run the journals, the groups like NASA, the IPCC, etc. are not big oil but hardcore AGW proponents. This doesn't make them wrong, nor does it invalidate AGW. It simply means that all this talk of big oil is ridiculous. They aren't controlling the science, and the can fund all the scientists they want. These scientists still have to be published, and big oil doesn't run any of the mainstream journals. In fact, if a journal publishes too much research by "deniers' it's blackballed.
2) The climate is very complex. It is a dynamical system, and in fact involves multiple dynamical systems. Our ability to model such systems is limited. We also don't know a great deal about how the climate works. It may be that we know enough to think that AGW is happening. I don't see how, but the majority of climate scientist think so.


I leave you with this


“No wonder the ruined woods I used to know don’t cry for retribution!The people who have destroyed it will accomplish its revenge”
William Faulkner
What you haven't read Herman Hesse or Thoreau?
 
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work in progress

Well-Known Member

Might as well put these two together, because they both fit in the BSdisinformation file.
First, who cares if volcanic activity caused the mini-ice age (an event which may have had marginal effects aside from Europe anyway). CO2 levels were well below 300ppm back then. The odds of another mini-ice age in our time recede with each passing year.

And, I want to see the story from the disinformation campaign that refutes the negative effects of carbon absorption in the world's oceans. The geoengineering advocates who think we can just pump a lot of crap into the upper atmosphere to reduce the Sun's warming effects, never seem to get to the issue of what to do about oceans that are slowly dying because of increasing acidification.
 

shawn001

Well-Known Member
"Foxnews has done lots of shows on how global warming is all politcal rather than science. But it's foxnews, not science, so I don't care."

Your comparing Nova and Frontline to fox news?

I posted Nova and frontline documentaries on the issues and details and you posted its akin to fox news.
 

work in progress

Well-Known Member
Umm...what exactly constitutes "normal circumstances" in a highly chaotic system? Or from a dynamic systems perspective, where or what are the periodic points?
I think I went over this before, but I want to emphasize after reading many pages of all sorts of nuanced explanations and obfuscations of climate data which somehow inevitably lead to the conclusion of "we don't understand it so do nothing" that the sensible conclusion about ecological systems we are trying to get an understanding of, is to use care and caution before allowing unrestricted exploitation and modification of the environment. And this is what makes me most sick of scientists like those mentioned previously, who don't actually dispute the major findings of the majority of climate researchers, but they end with the conclusion of do nothing, so give the green light to rampant oil and coal development. I think these guys are more equivalent to lawyers than scientists!

Which brings me back to James Lovelock (the scientist you seemed to feel free to malign). What grabbed my attention about his work was that he is seeking to develop a theory to explain the mysteries of how ecologies function. And he has been ignored by both the greed-driven economic libertarians that run the world economy, and the vast majority of environment advocates because of his dire conclusions about the scale and scope of the problems civilization is facing.
For most of this planets history, life has been extremely simple. Let's we have the introduction of oxygen into the atmosphere a couple billion years ago or about halfway into the earth's history, which according to a 2005 study published in the PNAS was "the most radical transformation of Earth's biogeochemical cycles." We have multiple mass extinctions. We know that many of the identified climactic cycles and changes of thre past are caused by the sun in a various ways (everything from fluctuations in its energy to fluctuations in the magnetic shield it provides the earth). We have massive changes from the "snowball earth" when the earth was nearly all ice for a few million years. So what exactly is "normal conditions?"
No, the Sun, meteors/asteroids, plate tectonics and volcanism, create the pressures that unbalance the biosphere which is trying to optimize conditions for life. As mentioned previously, the Sun is more than 30% hotter than it was 4 billion years ago, and the living mass on Earth has gone from an early period of promoting the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, to removing methane and lowering CO2 (that's where the introduction of oxygen fits in)and increasing carbon sequestration to try to keep CO2 levels below 300 ppm. -- as noted in a recent new method of paleoclimate measurement; and it's been the anomalous periods when outside forcings pushed up greenhouse gas levels that we had recent extinctions. At present solar radiation levels, life on Earth cannot thrive at Co2 levels above 300. An attitude that it's all random and a matter of fate that things go out of control and lead to extinctions is a disturbing lack of interest in understanding why past changes happened and what effects human civilization have on climate during the present.

Well that was lucky. My access to AGU journals is through Proquest, which only goes back to Nov. 2009, one month AFTER Murphy 2009. However, the full article is available here. The Nature article (Domingues et al 2008) I couldn't find online, but I did download it for you, and I put it online here. Let me know if it doesn't work (I'm not used to file sharing and this is the first time I've used this account).
Okay, I had a look at them -- the Murphy report doesn't dispute the general consensus on AGW, but contends that temperatures aren't rising as fast as expected because particulate pollution is blocking solar radiation and reflecting it back into space. This sounds like the most common solution advocated for geoengineering is happening naturally, and like I said before -- even if true, and if geo is feasible to solve the AGW problem, what about ocean acidification from all of the carbon absorbed into the world's oceans. This paper doesn't even mention that issue; that's the one I want to hear some so called AGW skeptic deal with.

The second one - the Nature letter - questions the reliability of climate model predictions when compared with ocean temperature data, and although it does note that there has been the new, more accurate, Argo system developed in recent years for ocean temperature measurement. This paper ref. from Skeptical Science, which uses Argo floats data claims there is no discrepancy of missing heat claimed earlier by Lyman, which claimed there was an ocean cooling trend after 2000. But again, where is the part where they deal with ocean acidification? I want to see someone deal with that problem.
 

LegionOnomaMoi

Veteran Member
Premium Member
I posted Nova and frontline documentaries on the issues and details and you posted its akin to fox news.
Frontline, yes. They are both media outlets. Foxnews has (I believe) a marked, obvious, conservative bias. I have to admit that I don't know this from personal experience, as I've never watched it. But I have read (or skimmed) some of the books from people who became famous because of it. They are clearly conservative/right-wing. Nova is less akin, but it's still media.

What you keep posting runs the gamut from blogs to press-releases and non-academic summaries from reputable scientific organizations. What you have yet to do is
1) Link to an actual research paper you've read
2) Discuss, rather than link to, the scientific issues
3) Show, by using your words rather than massive amounts of quotes and linnks, that you have any idea what the state of research is in climate science
 

shawn001

Well-Known Member
Frontline, yes. They are both media outlets. Foxnews has (I believe) a marked, obvious, conservative bias. I have to admit that I don't know this from personal experience, as I've never watched it. But I have read (or skimmed) some of the books from people who became famous because of it. They are clearly conservative/right-wing. Nova is less akin, but it's still media.

What you keep posting runs the gamut from blogs to press-releases and non-academic summaries from reputable scientific organizations. What you have yet to do is
1) Link to an actual research paper you've read
2) Discuss, rather than link to, the scientific issues
3) Show, by using your words rather than massive amounts of quotes and linnks, that you have any idea what the state of research is in climate science


" Link to an actual research paper you've read"

yes I did many of them infact

"Discuss, rather than link to, the scientific issues"

I did both

"Show, by using your words rather than massive amounts of quotes and linnks, that you have any idea what the state of research is in climate science"

I did both

Did you take climitology and meteorology classes in college?


Frontline awards

Awards | FRONTLINE | PBS

Nova awards

NOVA | Broadcast Awards Listed by Date | PBS


"They are both media outlets. Foxnews has (I believe) a marked, obvious, conservative bias. "

You think?

You have no idea what your talking about here on these shows and fox news.
 

LegionOnomaMoi

Veteran Member
Premium Member
somehow inevitably lead to the conclusion of "we don't understand it so do nothing"

I'm certainly not trying to promote that view, nor do, I think, many of the skeptics/"deniers." Some of the most maligned "deniers" explicitly state that AGW is real. What they believe is either 1) it isn't as dangerous the mainstream view of AGW posits, or 2) the methods proposed to combat AGW are poor to awful, or both.

Both actions and inactions have consequences. The "we must act now" tends to ignore the consequences of the actions, both in terms of how much (if at all) they will help, and in terms of the cost (not just financial) of such actions.

is to use care and caution before allowing unrestricted exploitation and modification of the environment.
That's certainly true.

who don't actually dispute the major findings of the majority of climate researchers
They do.

but they end with the conclusion of do nothing
Few come to this conclusion.


Which brings me back to James Lovelock (the scientist you seemed to feel free to malign).
I wasn't trying to malign him. I used the words you used to describe a nobel-winning physicist who weighed in on climate science. You accused him of talking about something which had nothing to so with his expertise and of being too old. Both of these descriptions apply (even more so) to Lovelock.

I don't have a problem with Lovelock talking about environmental science. He's done a tremendous amount of research on the subject. I do, however, believe he is quite wrong. The natural physical state of most systems (in a sense, all, in another none) is one of rest and equilibria. But the reason we have life on this planet is because the earth doesn't work this way. The sun is like a battery for chaos. Evolution, or "survival of the fittest" or "natural selection" is all about competition and change. Often radical and extremely destructive changes. The reason we have a planet with life which depends on oxygen is because earlier life actually put the oxygen there. It changed the entire history of the planet and it occured a long, long, long time before humans (it had to, because we wouldn't be around otherwise). The interaction between life and climate has existed since before complex animals. Animals cause massive changes in their environment, including climate, which in turn causes changes to the animals, and back again. It's a cycle of constant change, and looking back on the history of life we see that most of the species which ever existed died out completely.



I want to see someone deal with that problem.
In what way? You mean fix it, or do you mean you want to see how a "deniers" deal with it in their research? Once again, the issue is more than a little complex. Doney et al.'s 2009 paper, for example published in Annual Review of Marine Science provides and interesting example, primarily because the don't offer a "denier" view. Yet part of what they conclude seems to. Here's their conclusion. I've highlighted some important points.

Summary Points

1. The surface ocean currently absorbs approximately one-third of the excess carbon dioxide (CO2) injected into the atmosphere from human fossil fuel use and deforestation, which leads to a reduction in pH and wholesale shifts in seawater carbonate chemistry.

2. The resulting lowering of seawater carbonate ion concentrations and the saturation state for calcium carbonate are well documented in field data, and the rate of change is projected to increase over the 21st century unless predicted future CO2 emissions are curbed dramatically.

3. Acidification will directly impact a wide range of marine organisms that build shells from calcium carbonate, from planktonic coccolithophores and pteropods and other molluscs, to echinoderms, corals, and coralline algae. Many calcifying species exhibit reduced calcification and growth rates in laboratory experiments under high-CO2 conditions, whereas some photosynthetic organisms (both calcifying and noncalcifying) have higher carbon fixation rates under high CO2.

4. Our present understanding of potential ocean acidification impacts on marine organisms stems largely from short-term laboratory and mesocosm experiments; consequently, the response of individual organisms, populations, and communities to more realistic gradual changes is largely unknown (Boyd et al. 2008).

5. The potential for marine organisms to adapt to increasing CO2 and the broader implications for ocean ecosystems are not well known; an emerging body of evidence suggests that the impact of rising CO2 on marine biota will be more varied than previously thought, with both ecological winners and losers.

6. Ocean acidification likely will affect the biogeochemical dynamics of calcium carbonate, organic carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus in the ocean as well as the seawater chemical speciation of trace metals, trace elements, and dissolved organic matter.

7. Acidification impacts processes so fundamental to the overall structure and function of marine ecosystems that any significant changes could have far-reaching consequences for the oceans of the future and the millions of people that depend on its food and other resources for their livelihoods.



8. Geo-engineering solutions that attempt to slow global warming without reducing atmospheric CO
2 concentration, such as injection of stratospheric aerosols (Crutzen 2006), will not reduce ocean acidification.
 
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LegionOnomaMoi

Veteran Member
Premium Member
yes I did many of them infact

You linked to sites which cited research papers. You never actually linked to one or discussed what it said. And when I did, you stated they were just "single research papers."



I did both

Where? Point to any lengthy description (say several sentences) of a technical aspect of climate science you wrote in your own words.

You have no idea what your talking about here on these shows and fox news.
It's true I don't watch any of them. I don't remember any research paper I've read which cites Nova or Frontline. Why? They don't produce scientific research, they summarize it and popularize it for people who don't read the research. As I read the research, why would I bother to watch/read a dumbed down version?
 

LegionOnomaMoi

Veteran Member
Premium Member
CO2 levels were well below 300ppm back then. The odds of another mini-ice age in our time recede with each passing year.

The following graph is from a 2005 paper published in the journal Geology. You can find the paper here. I did a google image search to find a picture of the graph:
KouwenbergFig3.gif


The paper found a strong connection (albeit with a lag) between CO2 and temperature. And note that the highest point on the graph is, as we would expect, in the AGW period. However, the graph trends downward at the end, which we would not expect. Also, granted the connection between CO2 and temperature found by the authors (and others before and since), what caused the fluctuations before? Probably oceanic processes. The issue is that according to this and other papers, we've seen comparable rises in CO2 in the past. Also, some research indicades we've seen comparable warming in the past which has little or nothing to do with CO2 or other GHGs. In a paper published in 2004 in the journal Quartenary Research (you can find the paper here, the research team found rapid climate changes were frequent in the Holocene but the role of CO2 and CH4 was "negligable." Likewise, a new proxy data set was published in the Swiss journal Geografiska Annaler (you can find it here) in 2010. The data suggest first that the highest temperatures were during not just the AGW period but also from c. 800-1300. Moreover, the warmest century was the 2nd century:
Temp-History-Cart1.jpg



Also of note is that, contrary to the first paper I linked to, in this paper the warm periods prior to the AGW trend are thought to be related to solar phenomena.
 
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