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Global warming

Pete in Panama

Well-Known Member
You presented an interesting definition. Is that yours or did you read it somewhere. Somehow I'd have thought that the U.N. would be the central clearing house for this kind of thing. They say (from here)
  • Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. Such shifts can be natural, due to changes in the sun’s activity or large volcanic eruptions. But since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas.
  • Global warming of 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels has been caused by over a century of burning fossil fuels...
  • Burning fossil fuels generates greenhouse gas emissions that act like a blanket wrapped around the Earth, trapping the sun’s heat and raising temperatures.
It's good to have a clear statement of position but for me I'm concerned about the fact that there simply is not enough heat energy coming from the sun to heat the globe that fast. The 4 x 10^13 kcal/year we're getting would take over a hundred billion years to heat the globe that much.
 

ratiocinator

Lightly seared on the reality grill.
You presented an interesting definition. Is that yours or did you read it somewhere.
If you're talking to me, the link is in the post.

me I'm concerned about the fact that there simply is not enough heat energy coming from the sun to heat the globe that fast. The 4 x 10^13 kcal/year we're getting would take over a hundred billion years to heat the globe that much.
Who's talking about heating the entire globe?

You know the Earth is hotter inside, yes? The core is estimated to be at about 5,430 °C.

This is about the small part of it that we live in—the surface and oceans—and it's about maintaining thermal equilibrium. The Earth has to lose heat into space at the same rate it gets it from the sun and its own core (otherwise the temperature would rise without limit). Greenhouse gasses impede heat loss from the surface, so the surface temperature has to rise to compensate.
 

Yerda

Veteran Member
What I'm getting is that you agree that the atmosphere and oceans have warmed 1-1/2C over the past 150 years (because of a greenhouse caused by people), and also you are reluctant to say that you believe this. The closest we've gotten to your position that the people/CO2 caused oceans/atmosphere heating 1-1/2C in 150 years is your "the wisest choice is to listen to the people with the phds in the relevant fields and the decades of research."
I'm happt to accept the temperature records and the analysis contained in the research.

fwiw, there's a new trend in the discourse, that the story now is unclear as to whether the oceans are involved. Some say it's just the atmosphere that's heating. The reason for this change of assertion is that the public is becoming aware that there simply is not enough heat energy coming from the sun to heat the oceans that fast. Sun/greenhouse would take thousands of years, not just 150 --it's fairly simple math and we can look at it together if you want.
Let us do that
 

ratiocinator

Lightly seared on the reality grill.
The sun sends the earth 4.1x10^13 kcal of energy per year (from the U.S. Dept. of Energy: 173,000TWatts) and the earth has a mass of 6 x 10^24 kg. -ok, make it just 5 x 10^24 kg for the specific heat rock/water. That rate of heat will take over a hundred billion years for the earth temp. to heat up just one degree.
Okay, so you really don't understand the first thing about this. A climate sceptic without the first clue about the subject, whatever next!? :rolleyes:

Global warming is not about the sun heating up the entire mass of the earth. The bulk of the Earth is already much, much hotter than the surface.
 

Pete in Panama

Well-Known Member
Really?
whoa, that's an AMAZING link, thanks for the headsup. The article even said we had a 1.5C temp increase; unfortunately no starting and ending temp. readings nor any mention of how fast the change has occurred.

Definitely not written for anyone in a 9th grade science class. The idea that the 4 x 10^13 kcal/year can somehow heat up the 1.4 x 10^17 liters of ocean-- like it's obvious it would take 3-1/2 thousand years of 100% sunlight. Too many BBC viewers just don't think I guess...
 

Pete in Panama

Well-Known Member
If you're talking to me, the link is in the post.
My bad, yes I was looking at your definition and my browser did not make the link stand out. After looking I notice that there were 3 definitions and one of them said it was the entire earth that was heating. So we got some definitions that say it's just the atmosphere and some w/ the earth, and this May BBC article says it's the oceans that are heating.

We may have a 97% consensus but what it's over is a mystery.

Who's talking about heating the entire globe?
The second definition in your link:

from Wiktionary, Creative Commons Attribution/Share-Alike License.
noun A sustained increase in the average temperature of the earth, sufficient to cause climate change.
Also, the acronym AGW is for global warming.
You know the Earth is hotter inside, yes? The core is estimated to be at about 5,430 °C.
--and that estimate will have to be updated to 5,431.5C now. If the earths surface is raised 1.5C then less heat will flow --heat flows because of a temperature difference, no difference then no flow. It would be good if we kept in mind that (from here) that the heat from the core provides 47TW of energy. Small potatoes compared to the 173,000TW we get from the sun.
This is about the small part of it that we live in—the surface and oceans—and it's about maintaining thermal equilibrium. The Earth has to lose heat into space at the same rate it gets it from the sun and its own core (otherwise the temperature would rise without limit). Greenhouse gasses impede heat loss from the surface, so the surface temperature has to rise to compensate.
That's nice. We still have to figure out where the 1.5C comes from --if it's really there. All we know is that it's not caused by the greenhouse.
 

ratiocinator

Lightly seared on the reality grill.
Definitely not written for anyone in a 9th grade science class. The idea that the 4 x 10^13 kcal/year can somehow heat up the 1.4 x 10^17 liters of ocean-- like it's obvious it would take 3-1/2 thousand years of 100% sunlight. Too many BBC viewers just don't think I guess...
Quite apart from all the reasons why this is wrong (see below), do you really think that all the climate experts have somehow made this sort of basic mistake? What do you think is going on? Do you think they are all stupid? Some massive worldwide conspiracy?

As I explained before, on average, all the heat arriving from the sun has to be balanced by that radiated out to space. In order to do this, the earth holds a certain amount of heat that makes its surface temperature high enough for this to happen. The surface, including the oceans, is by far the coolest part of the globe.

temp-profile-1.png


We are sitting on a very hot planet. Even the deepest part of the ocean is only 11 km. There is a lot of heat energy already here.

When you put greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere, it increases the thermal resistance, so, in order to keep the flow of heat out into space the same (balance that arriving from the sun) the surface temperature increases.

The surface (including oceans) is a tiny, cool shell around a hot globe. There is no mystery about where the heat comes from.
 

TagliatelliMonster

Veteran Member
Please let's get together on this.

We have determined that most of the mass of the earth is not warming, but that the atmosphere is warming and it's what we now need to look at. iow, the vast majority of the earth's mass is the part that is not the atmosphere, so we can say that most of the mass is not warming. We agree that we don't have global warming, and we are now discussing whether we have atmospheric warming.

Are we still together?
You are making zero sense.

When we say that there is global warming, we aren't talking about the temp of the rock at 500km beneath the crust. :shrug:
How silly of you to even go there.

We are talking about climate and surface temperature.
 

ratiocinator

Lightly seared on the reality grill.
The second definition in your link:

from Wiktionary, Creative Commons Attribution/Share-Alike License.
noun A sustained increase in the average temperature of the earth, sufficient to cause climate change.
:facepalm: If you'd actually bothered to learn anything about this subject, you'd know that this was just loose terminology. If you search for the temperature of the earth, you'll get lots of links to the temperature of the surface.

Have you actually looked at anything on this subject (that isn't climate change denial propaganda)?

That's nice. We still have to figure out where the 1.5C comes from --if it's really there. All we know is that it's not caused by the greenhouse.
:facepalm: :facepalm: You have a very thin, relatively cool shell, you keep the heat input the same and increase the thermal resistance for heat escaping, the temperature rises. It absolutely is greenhouse gasses.

 

We Never Know

No Slack

Pete in Panama

Well-Known Member
...there simply is not enough heat energy coming from the sun to heat the oceans that fast. Sun/greenhouse would take thousands of years, not just 150 --it's fairly simple math and we can look at it together if you want.
Let us do that
Super! It's pretty simple, the fact that the sun provides 173K TW energy (from energy.gov here) which is the same as 4 x 10^13 kcal/year (let me know if that's not clear). The oceans have 1.4 x 10^17 liters of water and from there it's a simple 14,000 ÷ 4 and get 3,500 years. That's having all the sun's energy trapped by the greenhouse, the story now (in wikipedia) is that the greenhouse only gives us 460 ÷ 172,000 of that energy so that kicks it up over a million years for the oceans to heat 1.5C.
 

Pete in Panama

Well-Known Member
:facepalm: If you'd actually bothered to learn anything about this subject, you'd know that...
I deeply apologize for provoking you as I honestly want to learn from you what you're seeing that I can't see, or what I've seen that you're missing. We can't do this if you're upset so we'd be better off stepping back until we can both be on the same side searching w/ this issue.

Cheers
 

It Aint Necessarily So

Veteran Member
Premium Member
Leftists have tried to scare people with that sort of disinformation since the 70s. None of it came to pass, so they just keep saying, "Well, maybe in another 20 years....."
We've already hit and passed the tipping point. Global climate change is not just a threat. It's here. Extreme weather is here.

But like I tell the other climate deniers, it's not important to anybody but those who depend on you and the decisions you make whether you accept any of this. Here's what's coming. Already, insurance rates for structures are increasing. My wife's girlfriend in California had her insurer cease doing business in her state, and her new carrier wanted $4000/yr. up from $2000. That alone makes her home less valuable. So does the threat of wildfire razing it. Do you want to buy her home knowing that it costs twice as much to insure and is twice as likely to burn down than when she bought it decades ago?

Now extrapolate. A time will come when some homes are no longer sellable except at fire sale prices nor insurable. And then a fire, tornado, or hurricane will level it. Somebody's going to get stuck with a mortgage but no home and no home equity. And who will that be? The last climate deniers, the people who never realized that that had been wrong until it was too late. You're a candidate for that now, but if you smarten up soon enough, you can sell to somebody still in the dark and preserve your wealth. If you don't - well, you get the drift.

It doesn't matter to me who that is. It's fine if it's you.
The sun sends the earth 4.1x10^13 kcal of energy per year (from the U.S. Dept. of Energy: 173,000TWatts) and the earth has a mass of 6 x 10^24 kg. -ok, make it just 5 x 10^24 kg for the specific heat rock/water. That rate of heat will take over a hundred billion years for the earth temp. to heat up just one degree.
Your posting is a bit of an enigma. First, I read the above followed by a series of posts explaining to you that global warming was not about warming the whole globe, but mostly about the oceans and atmosphere.

Then you wrote, "We have determined that most of the mass of the earth is not warming, but that the atmosphere is warming and it's what we now need to look at. iow, the vast majority of the earth's mass is the part that is not the atmosphere, so we can say that most of the mass is not warming. We agree that we don't have global warming, and we are now discussing whether we have atmospheric warming."

Good. You've got it now.

Then later, I came across this: "I'm concerned about the fact that there simply is not enough heat energy coming from the sun to heat the globe that fast. The 4 x 10^13 kcal/year we're getting would take over a hundred billion years to heat the globe that much."

How did you relapse like that?

Incidentally, how long does it take the sun to heat up your community? Here's the forecast for today for where I live. It looks like the sun will warm the air about 16 deg F in about 12 hours. Your math doesn't model the reality

1720187816464.png

The idea that the 4 x 10^13 kcal/year can somehow heat up the 1.4 x 10^17 liters of ocean-- like it's obvious it would take 3-1/2 thousand years of 100% sunlight.
Same issue. The sun isn't warming the entire ocean, just the shallower waters. That's where hurricanes form - where the atmosphere meets the ocean.

Hopefully, you're aware that the oceans are warming at their surfaces as is the air and even the ground, but only to a very short depth. Those are the things that are getting warmer, and they represent a minority of the earth and its oceans. I don't know if the atmosphere is hotter in all of its layer, but they are in the troposphere, the lowest layer.

Regarding land surface warming, have you heard about urban heat islands? Concrete absorbs and holds heat better than dirt making the cities hotter than surrounding rural areas. It's predicted that in Phoenix, before long, there will be days when the temperature never falls below 100 deg F even at night. And if everybody is running A/C, that's heating the atmosphere along with the sun:

1720188287251.png
 

ratiocinator

Lightly seared on the reality grill.
It's pretty simple, the fact that the sun provides 173K TW energy (from energy.gov here) which is the same as 4 x 10^13 kcal/year...
Where did you get that conversion from, for a start? 173K TW = 173,000 TW = 1.73 x 10¹⁷ W, which is about 1.49 x 10¹⁷ kcal/h. That's per hour, so about 1.3 x 10²¹ kcal/year.

 

Pete in Panama

Well-Known Member
You are making zero sense.

When we say that there is global warming, we aren't talking about the temp of the rock at 500km beneath the crust. ...
Maybe I can see our problem better now.

When an astronomer says the world rotates he's including that rock 500km down. When a politician says he'll tell the world what's happening, he's only talking about the people he can contact. Wording is different between science and politics and my mistake here was thinking we were dealing w/ a scientific issue. This is politics and I don't do politics that well.

Cheers
 

Pete in Panama

Well-Known Member
...Then you wrote, "We have determined that most of the mass of the earth is not warming, but that the atmosphere is warming and it's what we now need to look at. iow, the vast majority of the earth's mass is the part that is not the atmosphere, so we can say that most of the mass is not warming. We agree that we don't have global warming, and we are now discussing whether we have atmospheric warming."

Good. You've got it now....
All I'm saying here are guesses as to what the AGW argument is.

Some say it's the earth --that's what the phrase Anthropogenic Global Warming means, that the people are warming the globe. Others say it's part of the earth that's warming, some say just the atmosphere, some the biosphere. The thing to remember here is that if we say the oceans are not being affected by the atmospheric heating then we must accept that the ice caps are not melting and the oceans are not rising. What this tells me is that there are many folks who insist that the greenhouse is heating the air, the water, and at least part the land.

Only problem now is that there's simply not enough heat in the greenhouse to heat all that our 1.5C in 150 years.
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
We've already hit and passed the tipping point. Global climate change is not just a threat. It's here. Extreme weather is here.

But like I tell the other climate deniers, it's not important to anybody but those who depend on you and the decisions you make whether you accept any of this. Here's what's coming. Already, insurance rates for structures are increasing. My wife's girlfriend in California had her insurer cease doing business in her state, and her new carrier wanted $4000/yr. up from $2000. That alone makes her home less valuable. So does the threat of wildfire razing it. Do you want to buy her home knowing that it costs twice as much to insure and is twice as likely to burn down than when she bought it decades ago?

Now extrapolate. A time will come when some homes are no longer sellable except at fire sale prices nor insurable. And then a fire, tornado, or hurricane will level it. Somebody's going to get stuck with a mortgage but no home and no home equity. And who will that be? The last climate deniers, the people who never realized that that had been wrong until it was too late. You're a candidate for that now, but if you smarten up soon enough, you can sell to somebody still in the dark and preserve your wealth. If you don't - well, you get the drift.

It doesn't matter to me who that is. It's fine if it's you.

Your posting is a bit of an enigma. First, I read the above followed by a series of posts explaining to you that global warming was not about warming the whole globe, but mostly about the oceans and atmosphere.

Then you wrote, "We have determined that most of the mass of the earth is not warming, but that the atmosphere is warming and it's what we now need to look at. iow, the vast majority of the earth's mass is the part that is not the atmosphere, so we can say that most of the mass is not warming. We agree that we don't have global warming, and we are now discussing whether we have atmospheric warming."

Good. You've got it now.

Then later, I came across this: "I'm concerned about the fact that there simply is not enough heat energy coming from the sun to heat the globe that fast. The 4 x 10^13 kcal/year we're getting would take over a hundred billion years to heat the globe that much."

How did you relapse like that?

Incidentally, how long does it take the sun to heat up your community? Here's the forecast for today for where I live. It looks like the sun will warm the air about 16 deg F in about 12 hours. Your math doesn't model the reality

View attachment 93819

Same issue. The sun isn't warming the entire ocean, just the shallower waters. That's where hurricanes form - where the atmosphere meets the ocean.

Hopefully, you're aware that the oceans are warming at their surfaces as is the air and even the ground, but only to a very short depth. Those are the things that are getting warmer, and they represent a minority of the earth and its oceans. I don't know if the atmosphere is hotter in all of its layer, but they are in the troposphere, the lowest layer.

Regarding land surface warming, have you heard about urban heat islands? Concrete absorbs and holds heat better than dirt making the cities hotter than surrounding rural areas. It's predicted that in Phoenix, before long, there will be days when the temperature never falls below 100 deg F even at night. And if everybody is running A/C, that's heating the atmosphere along with the sun:

View attachment 93820
Excellent post.

BTW, on the news a couple of days ago they mentioned that the main northern hemisphere jet stream is not 4 mph faster than what it was several decades ago.
 

Daemon Sophic

Avatar in flux



I wouldn't mind if the technology proves superior to oil. Right now it isn't.

Same here. I like the idea of energy being produced from sunshine. It's good for people who live off-grid, or just want to supplement what they get from traditional services. But it's not reliable enough to be a replacement for what actually works.
Actually, most of the world, and in particular, the scientific community, the investors, multinational companies, national governments, and everybody who is trying to save money, rather than throw it into a dumpster fire, all disagree with you.

Renewable energy is now a cost-effective and not just ‘viable‘, but “better than“ option, above and beyond fossil fuels.

Renewable energy – powering a safer future | United Nations.

https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(22)00410-X
 

Yerda

Veteran Member
Super! It's pretty simple, the fact that the sun provides 173K TW energy (from energy.gov here) which is the same as 4 x 10^13 kcal/year (let me know if that's not clear). The oceans have 1.4 x 10^17 liters of water and from there it's a simple 14,000 ÷ 4 and get 3,500 years. That's having all the sun's energy trapped by the greenhouse, the story now (in wikipedia) is that the greenhouse only gives us 460 ÷ 172,000 of that energy so that kicks it up over a million years for the oceans to heat 1.5C.
The whole ocean doesn't have to warm, Pete.

You do know that there are people working on the climate models who have phds in mathematics, yes? Doesn't it seem a bit of a stretch that tens of thousands of people have overlook this bit of arithmetic?
 
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