Interestingly, everyone who posted here prior to last week's agreement between Congress and Trump to reopen the government was wrong in predicting what would happen.
I wish to now predict that Congress will not pass a bill authorizing $5.7 billion for a border wall. I do not speculate about what Congress will pass. But I doubt that Trump will refuse to sign whatever bill Congress might pass and thereby cause another shutdown. I think it is more likely that Trump will try to use his national emergency powers to grab military funds to build a wall, and that he will eventually fail in that effort in the courts. Courts have been explicitly clear that the president's national emergency powers do not grant the president any additional power, and it is unconstitutional to use the military for purposes of law enforcement. Regulating who crosses a border line into the country is clearly a domestic law enforcement matter. It's a very simple argument that Trump's threat to grab military funds to try to make good on his failed campaign promise would violate both the Constitution and federal statute.
I wish to now predict that Congress will not pass a bill authorizing $5.7 billion for a border wall. I do not speculate about what Congress will pass. But I doubt that Trump will refuse to sign whatever bill Congress might pass and thereby cause another shutdown. I think it is more likely that Trump will try to use his national emergency powers to grab military funds to build a wall, and that he will eventually fail in that effort in the courts. Courts have been explicitly clear that the president's national emergency powers do not grant the president any additional power, and it is unconstitutional to use the military for purposes of law enforcement. Regulating who crosses a border line into the country is clearly a domestic law enforcement matter. It's a very simple argument that Trump's threat to grab military funds to try to make good on his failed campaign promise would violate both the Constitution and federal statute.
